The Rays have the best record in the AL. They're about to pay for it

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the most successful team in the American League this season. Years of good decisions and wins on the margins have yielded a 97-63 record going into the final weekend of the season. They have little left to play for, with enough cushion to guarantee home-field advantage through the ALCS.

In most sports, that position would mean an advantageous path on the playoff bracket. But not MLB.

Instead, the Rays will be rewarded with either the team with the second-best record in the AL or the third-best, via a quirk in MLB’s playoff structure. Tampa Bay is guaranteed to face the winner of the wild-card series of the 93-68 New York Yankees or the 87-74 Boston Red Sox, the only teams in the AL with a better run differential than them entering Saturday.

The other side of the AL bracket will be a combination of the 84-76 Cleveland Guardians, the 83-77 Chicago White Sox, the 79-81 Houston Astros or the 79-81 Texas Rangers.

In summary, only one of the AL’s top 3 teams can make the ALCS, including its two most popular teams in the Yankees and Red Sox.

The situation is a byproduct of MLB’s desire to make division titles matter. Every division champion receives either a first-round bye or a home series against the worst wild-card team available.

It makes sense, in seasons where all of the division champions are at least good teams. That descriptions applies to most years, but not 2026. The Astros and Rangers are still fighting things out in the AL West, but the winner is guaranteed to become the first division winner without a winning record in MLB history.

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The ALDS could conceivably be a 99-win team facing a 95-win team and an 84-win team facing a 79-win team.

So what is MLB to do? Does it follow the example of the NBA, where teams are seeded regardless of division? The NHL, where its four divisions matter even more? Or perhaps the NFL, which also has first-round byes and will also give a division champ a home game against a wild-card team with a better record.

In the NFL’s case, the league reseeds teams after the wild-card round, which is something else MLB could do. Imagine a world in which the Astros/Rangers get their wild-card series against the White Sox, but then become the lowest seed and face the Rays in the ALDS.

The answer might also be to do nothing and accept that this year’s AL West is a once-in-a-generation trainwreck.

Either way, it’s all very awkward. None of this is to say the Rays have an unreasonable task in front of them. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have significant injury issues, most notable Aaron Judge’s calf strain. It’s just that brackets are supposed to make at least a little sense when records are included next to the teams.