How the NBA's biggest stars are counting on fans to be losers

Another state sued Polymarket this week. It makes you wonder what kind of odds LeBron James got on that happening.

See, James is an enthusiastic participant in the “prediction market” space, which sounds like the kind of vernacular Pete Rose should have tried using. The governor of New York argues that the company endorsed by one of the greatest NBA players of all time actually is “an unlicensed gambling operation,” and it’s hard to deny that.

When you see James posting videos about his NFL picks of the week on Polymarket, and when you see Kevin Durant making his own selections for FanDuel, and when you see Kalshi shareholder Giannis Antetokounmpo starring in commercials reminding people that they “can trade on anything,” is there any doubt about what’s happening here?

And if you’re NBA commissioner Adam Silver, is there any way to defend it?

Word is, Silver is about to do more than defend it. Front Office Sports is among the outlets reporting that the league “is widely expected to have prediction-market deals in place by the time this season tips off,” and it’s important to be clear about what that means.

The more successful these betting partnerships are, the more miserable the league’s fans will become.

That is not some controversial opinion. It’s just a simple truth about the economics of sports gambling. 

FanDuel and DraftKings already have deals with the NFL, the NBA, Major League Baseball, and the PGA Tour, among others. Now Kalshi and Polymarket are joining the fray, and here’s the thing: 

None of those companies can recoup the millions of dollars they’re spending on sports sponsorships unless the fans they’re targeting wind up losing millions of dollars. And that is not some unanticipated side effect. It’s the outcome the betting sites and leagues are counting on.

Now, it’s true that this is far from the only example of leagues and teams and players promoting products that appeal to fans’ so-called vices. Just this week, for instance, the Spurs announced that Spec’s had become the franchise’s “official liquor store.”

But if Spec’s winds up making money off the deal, it won’t be because Spurs fans lost that money. It will be because Spurs fans spent that money, and received something – wine, beer, cocktails, mixers – in return for being customers.

Gambling sites aren’t seeking customers. They’re seeking losers. In case there was any doubt about that, an in-depth report published by ProPublica this weekend provided more reminders.

The ProPublica reporter, Jake Pearson, opened an account with DraftKings and “deliberately bet like a problem gambler.” He started placing wagers in April, and chased losing bets with bigger and bigger ones. Within weeks, he’d lost about $2,000, with most of it coming on one night.

The reporter had been told by a DraftKings executive that if a user shows too many symptoms of having a problem, the site would shut down the account. Instead, something different happened, per Pearson’s social-media summary of the experience: 

“The next day, an email popped in my inbox: ‘Welcome to the DraftKings VIP Showcase.’

I couldn’t believe it. My night of loss chasing was being rewarded. 

Reading the fine print, I was floored: The more I spent on long-odds wagers, the faster I’d advance through the ranks.”

Pearson reported that he went on to lose about $10,000 while using quick-tap deposit buttons, and continued to be “pummeled with push alerts inviting (him) to bet more.” He never was cut off.

And when he later asked DraftKings why? A spokesperson said “the system worked the way it was supposed to.”

That’s the system now being endorsed, indirectly or not, by at least three future basketball Hall of Famers. It’s the system that essentially every pro sports league in the country has jumped into bed with. And if you think only the pros could be this predatory?

Earlier this year, a major college football recruiting site, On3, partnered with Polymarket, even after NCAA president Charlie Baker called for the government to suspend college sports prediction markets.

This brings us to another noteworthy news item from the past week. Rivals, the recruiting site folded into On3 last year, has started a service charging high school athletes $499 (or $399 with a discount) to be “evaluated” for rankings consideration.

This, of course, is ludicrous. But if you’re the type of person who truly believes that giving an opportunistic middleman hundreds of dollars is the best way to get your son or daughter an athletic scholarship?

Well, there are surer ways to secure your family’s future.

For instance, we hear LeBron has some can’t miss picks for you this week.

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This article originally published at How the NBA’s biggest stars are counting on fans to be losers.