State of the Sox: A checklist for the final three and a half weeks

Strange as it may seem with 21 games still remaining, the Red Sox’ postseason fate is pretty much already determined: barring some unforeseen development — and remember, this is a team that earlier this season won 15 straight games — the Red Sox will almost certainly finish as the second wild card team in the American League.

That, in turn, will result in a Wild Card round rematch with the New York Yankees, at Yankee Stadium, in the final week of September.

But before they get there, there’s some business to which they must attend. Here’s a look at what the Red Sox need to do between now and Sept. 27, the final day of the regular season.

1) Get healthy.

This may seem obvious, but it’s far and away the most important item on this list. Currently, the Red Sox have as many as six potential postseason contributors on the IL, four of them pitchers – Garrett Crochet, Tanner Houck, Justin Slaten and Tyron Guerrero along with infielders Curtis Mead and Willson Contreras.

Guerrero (shoulder) and Slaten (elbow) are expected back relatively soon. Crochet and Houck are less certain, if only because they’ve been out for prolonged periods. Crochet hasn’t pitched since April while Houck has missed the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August.

There’s not enough time to build back either one as a starter, so if they come back at all, they would pitch out of the bullpen. In a best case scenario, Crochet and Houck would join Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, Erik Miller, Guerrero and Slaten for a formidable group of relievers.

Mead’s status is uncertain as he might not be able to beat the clock and return in time for the playoffs. He had his cast removed from his broken wrist last week and has been doing some baseball activities, but hasn’t swung a bat yet. That will need to happen relatively soon and Mead can’t afford any setbacks. Still, he would be a welcome addition to a lineup that is still lacking power threats.

2) Settle on a postseason starting rotation.

Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle are set as 1-2 in a playoff rotation; that much is inarguable.

After that, however, it gets murky.

On paper, Ranger Suarez would be the favorite as the third starter. After all, the Red Sox invested some $130 million in him last offseason, drawn in large part to his history of success in the postseason. While with the Philadelphia Phillies, Suarez compiled a 1.48 career postseason ERA over 11 appearances, eight of them starts.

But Suarez has not pitched well since returning from the IL, pitching to a 5.01 ERA. Do they trust his history or are they troubled by his present?

The only other choice would be rookie Jake Bennett, who, it should be noted, just defeated the Yankees in the Bronx last weekend. It’s true that Bennett is untested, but so, too, was Connelly Early, and he drew a starting assignment in last fall’s series.

Would Bennett be a gamble? In the sense that he’s only made 16 big league starts, yes. But if Suarez doesn’t have a turnaround in September, there are no other options.

3) Set the roster for the first round.

Last year, the Red Sox chose a dozen pitchers and 14 position players for the wild card round — three games over three days — and the assumption is they’ll do the same again this fall.

The 12 pitchers would likely be: Gray, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Guerrero, Crochet, Brayan Bello and one of: Greg Weissert, Patrick Sandoval or Jovani Moran.

That leaves 14 position players. The locks: Willson Contreras, Nick Sogard, Trevor Story, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Caleb Durbin, Adley Rutschman, Connor Wong, Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Eli White and Jahmai Jones.

That leaves one spot open for either Mead, Andruw Monasterio or Mickey Gasper. If Mead is healthy and can contribute, he’s the favorite; if he’s not, Gasper would likely get the final spot, especially since his presence gives them the luxury of a third catcher.

4) Root for the Yankees.

Last weekend, the Red Sox finished their season series with New York, which the Yankees won, thus gaining a key tie-breaker in the unlikely event the Red Sox can draw even in the standings.

The Red Sox are a real long shot to catch the Yankees or the first-place Tampa Bay Rays.

But it would behoove the Red Sox to face Tampa Bay in the wild card round, which could happen if the Yankees catch the Rays and take the AL East, pushing the Rays into second in the East as the first wild card entry. Should the Sox advance, they would still have to face the Yankees, but not until one round later in the Division Series.

The Rays won’t be an easy out, either. But the Red Sox would far prefer a best-of-three at the Trop to the same challenge in the Bronx. New York is a hostile environment; the Rays may not even sell out their home playoff dates.

Moreover, the Yankees have three No. 1 starters –Cam Schlittler, Gerrit Cole and Max Fried — while the Rays have none. And while Junior Caminero can dominate a short series, the Yankees have Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, and by then, Aaron Judge.

As antithetical as it seems, the Sox would do well to (quietly) be pulling for New York the rest of the way.

More Red Sox coverage

Read the original article on MassLive. Add MassLive as a Preferred Source by clicking here.