Texans will win AFC South after outscoring Jaguars in London shootout

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The Houston Texans are still chasing the Jacksonville Jaguars in the standings. After Sunday’s thriller at Wembley Stadium, though, the prediction here is that Houston will finish the season looking down at the rest of the AFC South.

Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 49-yard field goal as time expired delivered a 34-31 victory, giving the Texans consecutive wins after an 0-4 start. Jacksonville remains the division leader at 4-2, while Houston improved to 2-4. The gap is real, but so is the shift in Houston’s form.

One win does not erase September. It can, however, reveal why a team is better equipped for the months ahead than its record suggests.

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CJ Stroud gives Houston a championship-caliber foundation

The strongest reason to believe in a Texans comeback wears No. 7.

CJ Stroud completed 24 of 34 passes for 312 yards and three touchdowns against Jacksonville. His interception was his first of the season, underscoring that Houston’s difficult start has not turned its quarterback into a reckless passer.

LOOK AT THE BALL PLACEMENT FROM CJ STROUD MAN pic.twitter.com/Rk5SR0FUMp

— wok (@wokdior) October 18, 2026

Sunday also tested something more important than his stat line: his response to a damaging mistake.

Stroud threw an interception in the end zone while Houston was trying to put the game away. Jacksonville subsequently tied the score, leaving the Texans facing the possibility of another painful defeat. Instead, Stroud led the possession that positioned Fairbairn for the winning kick.

That is the kind of quarterback play that can sustain a division-title pursuit. Stroud did not need a flawless afternoon to deliver the decisive drive.

Houston also introduced another weapon, with Marvin Harrison Jr. making three catches in his Texans debut. His arrival offers room for this passing attack to develop further rather than treating Sunday as its ceiling.

Beating Jacksonville changes the division’s outlook

This was not simply Houston collecting a win against an ordinary opponent.

The Jaguars entered Sunday riding a three-game winning streak. The Texans snapped it by scoring 34 points against the team setting the AFC South’s pace. Houston did not have to imagine whether its offense could challenge Jacksonville; it proved it could.

The victory also prevented the division race from becoming considerably more daunting. A loss would have left Houston 1-5 and Jacksonville 5-1. Instead, the Texans sit two games back with 11 remaining.

That does not make Houston the favorite by default. Jacksonville earned its early advantage, and Trevor Lawrence’s four touchdown passes demonstrated how dangerous the Jaguars remain.

But the Texans have established a credible route back: keep getting high-level production from Stroud, build on consecutive victories and turn their next opportunities into pressure on the leader.

Indianapolis, also 2-4, and Tennessee, at 1-5, have not created additional separation. Houston’s challenge is substantial, but the standings have not made it unmanageable.

The Texans must improve, but their trajectory is convincing

There is an obvious warning attached to this prediction: allowing 31 points is not a sustainable defensive standard.

Houston needed a last-second field goal because Jacksonville repeatedly answered. Lawrence’s production exposed problems the Texans cannot expect Stroud to overcome every week.

Still, winning an imperfect game matters for a team recovering from four straight losses. Houston has now shown it can withstand adversity without letting another opportunity disappear.

The case rests on momentum backed by quarterback execution, not blind optimism. Stroud is producing, the offense has another receiving option, and the division leader has just discovered that Houston will not quietly fade away.

The Texans have left themselves little margin. They also have enough to win this race.

Related: Marvin Harrison Jr. reacts to triumphant Texans debut after win over Jaguars

Related: DeMeco Ryans agrees with Texans fans’ C.J. Stroud MVP push after London thriller