Puka Nacua probably won’t break Calvin Johnson’s record

Pro Football Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson heaped the praise on Los Angeles Rams receiver Puka Nacua this week, believing the star wideout could break his single-season receiving record. While the praise is completely warranted, Nacua is unlikely to break Johnson’s mark.

Johnson made the proclamation during an interview with Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, adding that it’s only “a matter of time” before someone breaks his NFL record.

Although Nacua is coming off a career year in which he earned first-team All-Pro honors, here’s why he is unlikely to break Johnson’s 14-year-old record … at least in 2026.

Johnson has every right to believe that Nacua has a solid chance at setting the record. However, getting such a high receiving yardage total is tough despite players now having one more game than Megatron had in 2012.

Only six players in NFL history have amassed at least 1,800 yards in a season, with Justin Jefferson being the most recent during his 2022 Offensive Player of the Year campaign.

Besides Johnson and Jefferson, only Cooper Kupp, Julio Jones, Jerry Rice and Antonio Brown possess the highest receiving totals in league history. Kupp is the player who’s gotten the closest to potentially topping Johnson, yet he fell 17 yards shy and that was with the 17th game already in place. The Super Bowl MVP certainly had the Hall of Famer sweating that season.

Having plenty of 100-yard receiving games will certainly get you there. Johnson, Kupp and Michael Irvin are tied for the most 100-yard games in a single season with 11, though Irvin’s 1,603 yards reached in 1995 is nowhere near the top five — ranking No. 29 all-time. Nacua’s career high in 100-yard games in a season is seven which he set in his rookie campaign. He had six last season, for reference.

Here are the number of 100-yard games the other top five single-season leaders had outside of Johnson and Kupp:

• Julio Jones: 1,871 yards (2015) – nine 100-yard games
• Jerry Rice: 1,848 yards (1995) – nine 100-yard games
• Antonio Brown: 1,834 yards (2015) – nine 100-yard games

As is the theme for other star players on the team and the Rams in general, Nacua will be working against history if he hopes to achieve further greatness. To date, only one player has amassed multiple 1,700-yard seasons, and managed to do it back-to-back — Tyreek Hill, who had 1,710 yards in 2022, and 1,799 in 2023, both with the Dolphins.

Racking up that much yardage is consistently difficult, even for the all-great greats enshrined in Canton, or those who will be whenever they call it quits.

Finally, it’s essential to start and finish strong while praying that the football gods bless you and your team with good fortunes. Many things have to go right for a player like Nacua to have a historic season. For starters, your starting quarterback must be healthy, which knock on wood, has largely been the case for Matthew Stafford during his Rams tenure, excluding 2022.

The player’s own health is obviously key. Nacua has had some injury concerns in the last two seasons. In 2024, he injured his knee in training camp and later missed five games in the regular season due to a PCL sprain. Then last season, he had a prolific opening month to the year before suffering a sprained ankle early in the Ravens game in Week 6, and missing the Rams’ trip to London the following week.

That also doesn’t even factor in his troubling off-the-field behavior that posed a significant distraction to him and the team earlier this offseason. While he does seem to have a better grasp of his behavior now, there’s unfortunately a chance the dam could burst again, even with a long-term extension likely on the way.

Again, many things have to go right to break a record like this, and there’s enough working against Nacua to keep it from happening, at least this coming season. Some players have gotten close, but even with the addition of more games, that doesn’t guarantee a record will fall right away.

After playing devil’s advocate, it’s important to note that while Nacua is unlikely to set the single season record in 2026, it’s not an impossible feat for him to achieve someday.

Remember, Nacua is the same player who tied Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. for the fastest to the 4,000 receiving yards mark. He is also the fastest player to reach 300 career receptions, giving him greater chances to rack up the yardage and a shot at the record.

Nacua has been on a historic tear to begin his career, and there’s absolutely no indication that his dominance will end anytime soon.

Plus, Johnson and Kupp have the two highest single season totals in NFL history with Stafford throwing to them. Nacua is not only playing with the reigning MVP, but perhaps the most seasoned version of Stafford to date. Stafford helped both of those guys become the only two players to reach 1,900+ yards in a season, so why can’t Nacua become the third? Three’s company, too.

If the All-Pro wideout has a believer in a legendary player like Calvin freaking Johnson, then what’s stopping us from jumping on the bandwagon to cheer him on as he chases history?