Predicting the Guardians’ Arbitration Plans

It’s that most exciting time of the year when we guess what the Guardians will do in arbitration decisions! Who will they tender a contract to? Who will they trade? Who will they bid a fond adieu? Strap in, this is gonna be a wild ride!

MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections are usually pretty accurate, so they are basis for these projections. I think Adell’s is high by $1-2M, but the rest seem about right to me. Without further fan-fare, here’s how I see things shaking out by Friday, November 20th’s 5PM ET non-tender deadline:

Sure Tenders:

Jo Adell – $9.6M
Steven Kwan – $11.3M
Colin Holderman – $2.3M
Patrick Bailey – $2.3M
Gavin Williams – $4.8M
Hunter Gaddis – $2.2M
Tim Herrin – $1.3M
Brayan Rocchio – $3.1M
Cade Smith – $5.5M

Analysis: Even if the Guardians are not interested in keeping Adell, Herrin or even Holderman, these players would have too much trade value to non-tender them at these amounts. I expect every player on this list to be back with the Guardians in 2027, but, if you had to guess which could be traded… you know, I wonder if Rocchio might have some potential in that line. I think the team really likes Genao, and there are probably some teams out there who like the idea of a good defensive shortstop who MIGHT be an average hitter. Something to monitor… otherwise, I think Kwan is the most likely trade, but still pretty unlikely. With a lockout making the number of games for 2027 uncertain, I don’t think a team will offer the Guardians enough value to move on from a player who should be their centerfielder for 2027 (with folks like Aaron Walton and Jaison Chourio trying to earn next look there in 2028).

Unsure Tenders:

Slade Cecconi – $2M
David Fry – $1.3M
Matt Festa – $1.5M

Analysis: IF the team sees Cecconi as a likely middle-reliever, I think he’s either traded or non-tendered. If they see him as a potential high leverage guy or have a plan to get him back to starting, than $2M makes sense. If I had to guess, I think Fry and Festa are probably non-tendered. Fry has had basically two and a half seasons to prove he can be that lefty masher while mostly failing. It’s probably preferable to let the next version of what they tried in Rhys Hoskins for 2026 in free agency (Ty France, Ryan Mountcastle, Alec Bohm, Gary Sanchez, etc) try this role, or let Kody Huff see if he can provide a fascimile of Fry’s output. Festa is a serviceable middle relief arm, but I think they’ll probably want this money to pursue at least one more relief arm with a higher ceiling.

Clear Non-Tenders:

Blake Perkins – $900K

Analysis:

Farewell, Blake, we hardly knew ye.

What are your thoughts and predictions on this group? Let us know in the comments below.