Women’s Super League predictions: Can Man City pull clear as Chelsea and Arsenal face off?

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

After three matchdays in the Women’s Super League season, defending champions Manchester City remain the only team with a 100% record, following their frantic 4-2 victory over Liverpool last time out.

After drawing 2-2 with Bayern Munich in their Champions League opener on Tuesday, City visit Charlton Athletic – who are the only team yet to pick up a point – to kickstart the week’s action on Saturday, before the focus turns to their potential title rivals.

Neither Chelsea nor Arsenal have suffered a defeat yet this term, but with both sides already off City’s pace, their head-to-head clash at Stamford Bridge on Sunday looks vital.

There is also a Merseyside derby between Liverpool and Everton, while Manchester United will look to finally earn their first league victory under Eva Olid, at home to West Ham.

Who will come out on top in the WSL this weekend? We have a look at the Opta supercomputer’s predictions for matchday four.

— Barclays Women’s Super League (@BarclaysWSL) September 24, 2026

CHARLTON ATHLETIC V MANCHESTER CITY

With Manchester City making a perfect start and Charlton recording three straight defeats since their promotion, it should come as little surprise that our predictive model makes Andree Jeglertz’s champions the clearest MD4 favourites, with a 75.6% win probability to Charlton’s 10.6%.

Only once in the last eight campaigns have City enjoyed a longer winning start than this one, winning each of their first four matches in 2019-20.

But they will be supremely confident of matching that feat at The Valley, in what will be their first competitive meeting with Charlton in the WSL era.

Promoted sides have won just one of their last 28 meetings with the reigning champions in the competition (D3 L24), with Liverpool recording a 2-1 home victory over Chelsea in September 2022.

Last time out, Khadija Shaw became the first player to score in each of City’s first three games of a WSL campaign, and she could become the fifth player to do so in the first four matches of a season for any club, after Kim Little in 2018-19 (four for Arsenal), Vivianne Miedema in 2020-21 (five for Arsenal), Martha Thomas in 2023-24 (four for Tottenham) and Aggie Beever-Jones in 2025-26 (four for Chelsea).

She becomes the first City player ever to score in each of our first three @BarclaysWSL games  pic.twitter.com/lLv7ZYajeE

— Manchester City Women (@ManCityWomen) September 21, 2026

Charlton’s last game was a thumping 4-1 defeat to the ambitious London City Lionesses, who have six points on the board after three games and sit fourth in the table ahead of facing winless Brighton.

Alexia Putellas and company are assigned a 52.9% win probability on Saturday, with Brighton only winning 23% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.

London City’s three wins in their last four WSL matches (L1) are more than they managed across their previous 12 in the competition (W2 D3 L7), and their nine ‘big’ chances against Charlton last week were the most by any team in a WSL game since October 2020 (when Man Utd had 10 versus Brighton).

The Seagulls could fail to win their opening four matches of a WSL campaign for the third time after 2018-19 (first six) and 2019-20 (first five), and they have lost seven of their last nine league games in London.

Olid got her first win in charge of Manchester United in the Women’s League Cup on Wednesday, with a 10-1 thrashing of Sheffield United, and they will now look to translate that into a WSL victory.

They are given a 68% chance of beating West Ham – whose chances sit at 14.3% – having gone unbeaten in their last 12 league games against the Hammers (W8 D4).

United are winless in their first three WSL matches (D1 L2) for the first time and have lost two of their last three home games in the competition (D1), as many defeats as they suffered in their previous 20 (W12 D6).

West Ham struggle on their travels against the Red Devils, though, having lost each of their six such games in the WSL by an aggregate score of 1-19.

They have only won one of their three games this term (L2), but given United have attempted just 10 shots in the WSL in 2026-27, they might feel this is a good chance to get one over on them.

Two of the new teams at this level face off, with Birmingham City seeking their first victory since promotion while Crystal Palace try to get back to winning ways.

Palace were the only team to do the league double over WSL2 champions Birmingham last season – the Eagles have actually won each of their last four league matches against the Blues.

However, it is Birmingham who are backed to come out on top on Sunday with a 44.7% win probability to Palace’s 28.4%. Though at 26.9%, this is one of the most likely draws of the weekend.

Birmingham could start a WSL campaign without a win in four games (D1 L2 so far) for the third time, but Amy Merricks will be determined to halt her nine-match winless streak as a manager in the top flight (D3 L6).

Liverpool were 3-2 winners against Everton back in March and could win consecutive WSL games against the Toffees for the first time since 2013 and 2014 (three straight).

The Reds are marginal favourites to prevail in Sunday’s derby, despite losing eight of their nine previous league games played at Anfield, including five against Everton. They are given a 44% chance of victory.

A post-match message for you from Natalia pic.twitter.com/kJXEbOwJv2

— Liverpool FC Women (@LiverpoolFCW) September 23, 2026

Only Man City (11), Chelsea and Arsenal (both 10) have won more WSL games in 2026 than Everton (seven), who could win three league matches in a row for the second time this calendar year (won four in a row in February).

Everton’s chances of winning away to their Merseyside rivals are 29.1%, but this is the other most likely draw of the weekend, with 26.9% of the simulations finishing level.

After three matchdays, Tottenham are in the mix at the top, sitting second and just two points behind Man City, having made an unbeaten start to the season (W2 D1).

They are actually unbeaten in their last six league games and could go seven straight without defeat for the first time in the league’s history; they have a 57.7% chance of extending that run with a win.

Aston Villa have won three of their last five WSL away games against Spurs (D1 L1), but they come into this match having drawn their last two league games on the road. There is a 22% chance of them adding a third draw to that run.

The Villans have not yet gone ahead in any of their three league games, something they must do if they are to turn their 20.3% win probability into a first victory of the season.

The spotlight clash of the matchday sees Chelsea and Arsenal look to keep the pressure on Man City and extend their respective unbeaten starts.

Arsenal (20) and Chelsea (11) are on the two longest unbeaten runs in the WSL currently.

And Chelsea are looking to go unbeaten in their opening four games for the fourth successive WSL season, while Arsenal could win as few as five points from their first four matches for the second time in the last three seasons (after 2024-25).

— Chelsea FC Women (@ChelseaFCW) September 24, 2026

This will be the 10th meeting between Chelsea and Arsenal in all competitions since the 2023-24 season, with both teams picking up four wins apiece in that time (D1), though the Gunners won the most recent league meeting at Stamford Bridge 2-0, back in January.

Chelsea are the favourites to triumph, winning 51.9% of the supercomputer’s simulations, compared to Arsenal’s 23.6%.

And Renee Slegers will be determined to have her say, having already beaten Sonia Bompastor twice in all competitions this calendar year – no manager has ever won three in a row against her.

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