WNBA predictions. Who's favored in semifinals, who will win and why

And then there were four.  

The 2026 WNBA semifinals are set, with the best-of-five series beginning on Oct. 4. 

The action will start in Atlanta, where the No. 4 seed Dream will face the No. 8 seed New York Liberty at 11 a.m. MST (2 p.m. ET) on ABC.  

The Liberty stunned the league, becoming the first No. 8 seed to eliminate a No. 1 in WNBA history, sweeping the Minnesota Lynx in the first round. The Dream swept the Washington Mystics en route to the semifinals. 

Golden State will host the other matchup, facing the defending champion Las Vegas Aces. Game 1 is Oct. 4 at 1 p.m. MST (4 p.m. ET).

Both teams narrowly edged their first-round opponents. The Aces eliminated Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever in a tightly contested Game 3, while the Valkyries punched their ticket for the final spot in the semifinals, defeating Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings in Game 3 on Oct. 2.  

Here are our predictions on who will reach the 2026 WNBA Finals and why:   

The predicted winner: Atlanta Dream. 

Both teams handily defeated their opponents in the first round and have had plenty of rest before the semifinals. 

Atlanta holds a narrow edge in this series because of its speed.  

The Liberty have one of the bigger and most intimidating lineups in the WNBA, but the Dream can run down the Liberty with their strong guard play featuring Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada.

Defense Player of the Year Angel Reese will draw a lot of attention from New York in the post, which could create some open shots.  

If Breanna Stewart continues her dominant play since the World Cup, the Dream will run into some trouble. But if Atlanta finds a way to slow her down, the Dream could head to its first Finals since 2013. 

The Dream are -150 favorites to win this series, per BetMGM, with the Valkyries at +125.

vs. No. 3 Las Vegas Aces 

The predicted winner: Las Vegas Aces. 

The Valkyries gained home-court advantage for the series, but the Aces hold advantages in other areas.  

Golden State’s stingy defense will have its hardest task in containing Las Vegas’ big three of A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young. The Valkyries looked great in Game 1 against the Wings, but showed fatigue in Game 2, allowing Arike Ogunbowale to drop a WNBA-record 45 points and force a Game 3. 

The Aces have already shown their depth, with Jewell Loyd taking over the injured Stephanie Talbot’s spot in the starting five in Game 3 and hitting three 3-pointers. 

Las Vegas will face the toughest environment in the WNBA. Golden State had the best home record in the league, going 17-5.  

The Aces are a slim -135 favorite to win this series, per BetMGM, with the Valkyries at +115.

Reach the reporter or send tips for stories at jenna.ortiz@arizonarepublic.com, as well as @jennarortiz on X. 

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: WNBA predictions. Who’s favored in semifinals, who will win and why