WNBA playoff picture: 8 teams, 3 games left and a postseason bracket still up for grabs

After Friday’s WNBA action, every team except Portland has three regular-season games remaining. And yet, no playoff seeds have been clinched for the 2026 postseason. Here is where each team can finish in the playoff bracket.

Minnesota Lynx

Remaining games: at Connecticut, at Indiana, vs. Indiana

The Lynx’s magic number to clinch the No. 1 seed is two, meaning they need two Minnesota wins and Golden State losses combined. It’s unrealistic to count on the Valkyries losing; they finish the season against exclusively lottery teams. As a result, the Lynx probably need to take care of business against the Connecticut Sun and then at least split the final two games against Indiana. That’s easier said than done, as the Fever could be in a race for home-court advantage until the final day of the regular season.

Golden State Valkyries

Remaining games: vs. Seattle, at Portland, at Los Angeles

The Valkyries could finish as the top seed or fall as low as No. 5. But even with their French nationals easing their way back into the WNBA action after the World Cup — consider that Gabby Williams averaged 25.9 minutes in Berlin, more than the 24.8 minutes per game she is playing for Golden State — a cupcake schedule should guarantee the Valkyries a top-two seed.

Las Vegas Aces

Remaining games: vs. Seattle, vs. Los Angeles, at Phoenix

Thursday’s matchup against the Storm should have eliminated any doubts that Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray would need time to rest after heavy workloads at the World Cup. Young tied a WNBA record with 22 points in a quarter and set a career-high with 35 points; Gray added six assists and nine rebounds, and the Aces handled business early, allowing both gold medalists and A’ja Wilson to play fewer than 30 minutes. Las Vegas has to win out to hold on to the No. 3 seed because Indiana — which is one loss back — owns the tiebreaker with the Aces. The Mercury are still playing to win, as they don’t own their lottery pick, but it’s hard to imagine Las Vegas slipping up against Phoenix to begin and end its season, especially with playoff seeding on the line.

Atlanta Dream

Remaining games: vs. Chicago, at New York, at New York

The Dream climbed into the No. 4 seed by beating Connecticut, but blink, and that could change. If Atlanta wins out, it needs the Aces to lose two games to jump them for the No. 3 seed. Given Las Vegas’ schedule, that isn’t a reasonable outcome. As a result, the Dream’s best-case scenario is holding onto home court in the first round, though as coach Karl Smesko said Thursday, they won’t let seeding hold them back. Assuming Atlanta beats Chicago, a split with the Liberty would keep the Dream no lower than No. 5.

Indiana Fever

Remaining games: at Toronto, vs. Washington, vs. Minnesota, at Minnesota

The Fever can climb to a No. 3 seed if the Aces lose one game since they hold the tiebreaker. In theory, Las Vegas could slip once, but don’t count on it. Like Atlanta, Indiana needs to focus on staying at the fourth seed. The two teams split the season series, so the tiebreaker will likely come down to record versus plus-.500 teams. Both squads are 9-11 against opponents with winning records, but the Fever could pull ahead in that category because they have three such games left while the Dream have two. For instance, if Atlanta goes 1-1 against New York while Indiana goes 2-1 against Washington and Minnesota, the Fever would own the tiebreaker over the Dream.

Both coaching staffs also have to consider managing their players’ minutes after four of them (Aliyah Boston, Caitlin Clark, Rhyne Howard and Angel Reese) played in the World Cup. Perhaps that isn’t a huge concern considering all four came off the bench and saw their minutes tighten in the medal rounds. After all, Reese said she told her teammates in the locker room Thursday that she was “very well-rested.”

Washington Mystics

Remaining games: at Indiana, vs. Connecticut, vs. Chicago

The Mystics’ fate hinges on their matchup with the Fever. If they beat Indiana, they could move up to No. 4 or No. 5 with one more Fever loss because Washington will own the tiebreaker (2-1 head-to-head). Looking at the Fever’s schedule, that’s completely plausible. However, if the Mystics lose to Indiana, they would likely drop below Dallas, and they could fall to No. 8 because the Liberty have the tiebreaker over Washington. If they’re not in the 4-5 matchup, the Mystics were equally successful against the top-three teams this season, going 1-2 against each of Minnesota, Golden State and Las Vegas.

Tonight’s @capitalone Play Of The Game pic.twitter.com/P7OzkmN8g7

— Washington Mystics (@WashMystics) September 18, 2026

Dallas Wings

Remaining games: vs. Phoenix, vs. Phoenix, at Seattle

Expect Dallas to go undefeated to finish out the regular season given its remaining opponents. Unfortunately for the Wings, that doesn’t give them control over their fate; if New York and Washington also win out, Dallas would land on the eighth seed due to its worse record against teams with winning records. However, the Liberty likely will suffer at least one loss, giving the Wings a floor of No. 7 and possibly No. 6 if the Mystics lose to the Fever.

New York Liberty

Remaining games: at Toronto, vs. Atlanta, vs. Atlanta

The Liberty moved up to a potential No. 6 seed by beating the Lynx on Friday night, but they can move up to No. 4 if they win out, provided Indiana also drops two games, a wholly unexpected finish to an uneven, injury-riddled regular season. New York would have the tie-break over Indiana, Atlanta and Washington. The Liberty don’t have the head-to-head advantage over Dallas, but any multi-team tie-break with the Wings favors New York because of its superior record against playoff teams.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

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