With just one week left until the 2026 NFL trade deadline, texts and calls are bouncing from front office to front office.
Multiple landscape-shifting trends have already materialized. The Chicago Bears’ trade of two first-round draft picks for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is the richest and perhaps highest-ceiling move. The New York Giants’ fifth-round pick for now-starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy may net the best value.
Since the season’s start, the Houston Texans have traded for receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., the Dallas Cowboys have traded for cornerback Joey Porter Jr., the Seattle Seahawks have traded for left guard Quenton Nelson and the San Francisco 49ers have traded for defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.
Who could be next?
Yahoo Sports spoke with NFL general managers, salary-cap executives, personnel evaluators and more to take a pulse of the trade deadline landscape. All were granted anonymity due to the competitive implications of the intel. The summary: Expect more moves during the next week. But also consider the average impact of most moves (we’re not looking at you, Bears) more conservatively than initial hype may dictate.
“Usually if you’re looking at this time of year, a real need, you’re probably not filling it,” a high-ranking NFC executive said by phone Tuesday. “You might be solidifying it. I call it, patching a leak. … You might not have planned for the Colts to be in a spiral and now their guard who is going to be a UFA, but he comes available.
“Relax and just see if there’s any opportunities.”
An executive from a second NFC team explained they’re “always willing to make moves … if the price is right.” But how often is it?
“Unless you’re paying up for this stud, do any of these deals really make sense when prices are kind of flying all over the place?” the executive told Yahoo Sports. “That, to me, is never really where the best deals get made. … But if there’s a [deal] that’s available that feels too good to be true or the other way around, you get an offer you can’t refuse?
“I think obviously you have to come into that with eyes wide open.”
Is Jags’ Brian Thomas Jr. ‘going to be better for the second team’?
It’s easy to draw parallels between Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and Houston Texans receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. That begs the question: Will any team pay for Thomas the second-round draft pick (slightly discounted with a seventh/sixth-round swap) that the Texans paid the Arizona Cardinals for Harrison?
The Jaguars selected Thomas 23rd overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, 19 picks after the Cardinals selected Harrison the same year. Thomas’ career peak thus far was higher, with 87 catches for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie to Harrison’s 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns the same year. Each player’s production and catch percentage have fallen since, and Houston banked on a reunion with Harrison’s college quarterback, C.J. Stroud, reviving him. Will a fresh start revive Thomas?
“Sometimes we’ll scout a player and we’ll say, ‘This guy is going to be better for the second team he plays for than the team that originally [drafts him] just because they kind of need a change of scenery, a wake-up call,” one AFC personnel evaluator said. ” ‘Hey, it didn’t work out and your career’s about to end’ — that kind of pressure.
“He definitely would fall in that category, in my opinion.”
At 6-foot-2 7/8, per his scouting combine measurement, with a 4.33 40-yard dash, Thomas’ size and speed allure talent evaluators. His catch reliability concerns them, Thomas falling from a 65.4% catch rate as a rookie to 52.7% last year and 45.5% this year. Thomas has also registered 19 drops, including 10 last year, per Pro Football Reference.
From the Kansas City Chiefs to the Pittsburgh Steelers, multiple top-of-their-division teams need a receiver. The Washington Commanders pique the interest of some around the league as a Harrison/Stroud-like fit that would reunite teammates and friends from Daniels’ LSU Heisman days. Others wonder if Thomas’ inconsistency would hurt Daniels’ ability to operate a clean offense more than it’d help give the Commanders another target after Terry McLaurin’s season-ending patellar tear. One high-ranking executive noted that a timing and precision offense like Coen’s is unlikely to best serve Thomas as a target.
A third-round pick seems roughly what the league expects Thomas to cost, an executive from one NFC team comparing his value to that of George Pickens heading from the Steelers to the Dallas Cowboys in May 2025 for a third-round pick (with a sixth/fifth swap), while an executive from another NFC team thought the Jaguars would need to wait until the pressure of deadline day to command a third rather than a fourth. A high-ranking AFC executive noted that the Jaguars had previously shopped Thomas but earlier this season said they were no longer interested in moving him.
If the Jaguars stay put with Thomas, what will explain clinging to a player with 10 catches for 117 yards and two touchdowns in seven games? Targets aren’t Thomas’ only value, as the Jaguars aim to create space for fellow receivers like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers.
“If you trade him and then now … don’t have speed, so now the defenses play more compact, it’s just harder,” a high-ranking NFC executive said. “It’s less space. So with that being said, a third may not be enough. It’s like, ‘Hey, we’re actually a good team. Why would we give this guy up for a third?'”
What would it take for Raiders to trade Maxx Crosby?
This question has loomed over the trade deadline since, and really even before, the Baltimore Ravens agreed to send the Las Vegas Raiders two first-round picks for Crosby in March. They infamously reneged after Crosby arrived in Baltimore and took a physical that underscored the degeneration in his knee.
The overwhelming belief around the league since: Crosby does not want to be traded. And when the Raiders opened their season 3-0, giving Crosby the main missing piece of his Raiders experience (wins), two high-ranking AFC executives agreed: Trading Crosby no longer made sense. That sentiment continued to capture conversations with executives while the Raiders were 3-1 and 3-2 before shifting slightly as the Raiders fell below (and then climbed back to) .500. So where do things stand with Crosby, who’s recorded three sacks, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and 18 quarterback hits in eight games?
“They’ve already traded him once,” a high-ranking NFC executive said, “so I’m sure that they would listen.”
Sources around the league believe that for an offer like the two first-round picks Baltimore presented, or value equivalent to a first- and second-round pick, the Raiders would pick up the phone. But the sense is not that the Raiders are actively trying to offload Crosby, who provides them value now as well as whenever they transition from Kirk Cousins to rookie first overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Executives painted a picture of what they think the Raiders may be considering: On one hand, assistant general manager Brian Stark came from the Denver Broncos, fresh off seeing how Denver’s strong defense helped Bo Nix develop as a rookie. Could that sway his belief on what Mendoza needs? On the other hand, first-year head coach Klint Kubiak is the team’s offensive play-caller. The more capital to collect elite linemen and skill players to run his zone scheme, the more he’ll be able to execute his offensive vision.
“He’s probably more valuable to keep, but if you can get two ones for him, you should flip him,” an NFC executive said. “I’d probably just hang on to him because you’ve shown that you’re already better than you thought you were… [and] then let’s say Mendoza comes on at the end of the year and looks good?
“You’re better off having him in 2027 and 2028 because there’s a chance you can make a push at that point.”
Should Colts trade Jonathan Taylor?
Jonathan Taylor is the most valuable skill position player in the deadline mix. That doesn’t guarantee he’ll be traded.
League sources stress that equating the Indianapolis Colts’ trade of Nelson and Buckner with a trade of Taylor is disingenuous: Nelson and Buckner were each on expiring contracts, likely to leave this spring in free agency. Taylor signed a two-year, $44 million extension with $39 million guaranteed nearly three months ago. He’s 27 years old to Nelson and Buckner’s 30 and 32, respectively. And he could be a building block for a new regime that already fired general manager Chris Ballard and seems to view head coach Shane Steichen’s long-term future with serious questions.
So what would it take to acquire Taylor?
Executives from multiple teams believe Taylor should command something similar to what the 49ers paid for Christian McCaffrey. On Oct. 20, 2022, the 49ers sent the Carolina Panthers 2023 second-, third- and fourth-round picks as well as a 2024 fifth-round pick in exchange for McCaffrey, who has since earned All-Pro honors in both of his healthy seasons.
Two caveats suggest the price could be a little lighter for Taylor than McCaffrey. First, McCaffrey’s heavier usage in the passing game offsets concerns about the depreciating value of aging running backs in ways that Taylor’s style might not. Secondly, the Niners were bidding against their division-rival Los Angeles Rams for McCaffrey in 2022: That auction drove the price up. Will anyone pay the Colts what it takes? Some league sources point to the Minnesota Vikings as a team that makes sense. Their defense ranks first in points allowed and second in yardage, playing like a true Super Bowl-contending unit. Their offense, meanwhile, is struggling at 27th in points scored and 29th in yards gained. The Seattle Seahawks have raised eyebrows too, though the Seahawks just showed a disinterest in paying big for Kenneth Walker III this spring. Notably, first-year Vikings general manager Nolan Teasley was part of the Seattle group that let Walker walk.
“He’s a rare exception of somebody like a running back who makes such a difference that you just … whatever they want, you just pay it because they have potential to make a run this year if they get a guy like him,” an NFC executive said of the Vikings. “If they don’t, they’re going to stall out. They know that because they know their passing game isn’t good enough right now. …
“While you got the bull by the horns, you should try to be aggressive to go, at least make sure you get to the divisional round in the playoffs.”
An AFC executive underscored why the Colts should trade Taylor as well as receiver Josh Downs, rather than taking picks for only Buckner and Nelson.
“Teams that do the best job on these trades is really understanding what phase you’re in and stacking,” the executive said. “All of those picks combined make an intriguing rebuild. One extra third-round pick doesn’t really help you.”
Are Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard viable options?
No one’s suggesting that the current iteration of Eagles running back Saquon Barkley nor Titans running back Tony Pollard can elevate a team like Taylor can. Each would be cheaper than Taylor accordingly, but Barkley no longer makes sense for a trade. League sources weren’t surprised to hear Barkley say on Sunday night that he’s been told he won’t be traded. While overwhelming league sentiment is that the Eagles should aim to recoup value, and especially salary cap space from their roster, amid their injury-riddled lost season, Barkley’s hamstring and back injuries tank his value likely beyond the point of a helpful return. Before his injuries worsened, executives pegged Barkley’s value with his contract as ranging from a second to a fourth-round pick.
Hurting the Eagles’ case is that while some positions last well from season to season, the league’s view on running-back depreciation tends to limit running-back trades to teams wanting to maximize their acquisition this year. Barkley’s limitations hamper that hope.
“That is one position the draft always looks better because age is such a negative thing,” an AFC talent evaluator said. “And I’d say running back or skill positions like receiver, usually the need is immediate so they don’t compare. If someone acquired Saquon or [Taylor], I think it’ll be for this season more than anything.”
The Eagles still could shop players. Defensive tackle Moro Ojomo, tight end Dallas Goedert and offensive lineman Tyler Steen are all in the last year of their contracts. Ojomo drew high-value interest before the season, per a league source, but the Eagles declined. With their 2026 season spiraling, would they reconsider sending Ojomo away for something like a second-round pick?
“I think they would probably take the second now,” a high-ranking executive from another NFC team said. “But probably going into the year, they’d be like, OK, if we’re winning, you’re at least planning on trying to win. And then you’re like, ‘Well, we’re not.'”
To round out the running back conversation, Pollard is a cost-effective, healthy and still potentially valuable back who could give a team solid depth. His 595 yards and six touchdowns rushing this season each rank ninth in the league, and Tennessee could seek value for a player likely to walk this spring anyway. A team renting Pollard for the second half of the season might need to pay a fourth or slightly more to award the Titans more than the compensatory pick they’d otherwise get.
Odds and ends: Chargers questions, why Jeffery Simmons isn’t your average DL trade, more
League wisdom says the last winless team, the Los Angeles Chargers, should trade players before the deadline to amass the capital needed to rebound from their 0-7 start. But who would this franchise trade? Edge rusher Tuli Tuipulotu is in the final year of his rookie deal, following up his 2025 13-sack season with an interception, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in seven games so far. He also leads all edge rushers in run-stop win rate, per ESPN’s metric. Executives from multiple teams think he’d draw value akin to a second-round draft pick even with just half a year left on his deal. But trading away young edge rushers is a risky proposition, and the Chargers are “a relatively conservative bunch,” as one high-ranking NFC executive said. Executives and evaluators believe it would make little sense, however, for the Chargers not to offload 35-year-old Khalil Mack. He’s also up after this season and regardless of the pick back, trading the remainder of Mack’s $18 million salary is worth it, they say. Mack could help a team needing pass rush, but at this stage of his career, “I wouldn’t count on him as a game-changer,” the high-ranking NFC executive said.
Falcons safety Jessie Bates III could be a win-win option for a contending team. The Falcons drafted safety Xavier Watts in the third round last year and safety Billy Bowman in the fourth last year before trading for Sydney Brown this spring. Atlanta’s depth at the position, paired with their 3-5 record and quarterback questions, should help the Falcons rationalize trading away an impact defender. In eight games, Bates has 46 tackles, three forced fumbles, one fumble recovery touchdown and one interception. He could immediately elevate a contender that’s currently stronger on offense than defense. One NFC executive pointed to the Buffalo Bills as a fit to narrow the gap between their powerhouse offense and shaky defense, while an executive from another NFC team thought the Bills would be more interested in pass-rushing help. (The Bills released safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson on Tuesday, opening another potential case for Bates.) Executives pegged the likely price to rent Bates at a third-round pick, with the possibility to creep to a second.
Executives across the league remain split on whether they’d have traded two first-round picks for Jeffery Simmons, who starred in his Monday night debut with the Chicago Bears. Simmons’ six tackles, one sack, two tackles for loss and pass deflection wreaked havoc on the Seahawks in a 34-17 decision. Some executives believe the price was too steep, pegging Simmons’ value as closer to a first- and second-round pick or “one and change.” The Bears became the first team in the modern draft era to spend two first-round picks on an interior defensive lineman. But one high-ranking NFC executive said they respect the Bears recognizing their window and chasing it. A talent evaluator from another NFC team explained why they’re more comfortable trading for a 29-year-old defensive tackle than a speed rusher.
“As a speed rusher, there is going to be a level of depreciation that you’re going to expect from this player regardless … ” the evaluator said. “These large prototype, explosive, powerful defensive linemen I would say do tend to have a level of normal regression that I think can protect your investment.”
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