Some Giants officials see next season looking like 2008 or '09. Here's what that could mean

Rebuild might be a strong word for what the San Francisco Giants appear to be contemplating next year, but this past season’s youth movement has some team officials projecting something similar to 2008. Or if all goes well, 2009. 

There are several potential similarities with 2008: Bruce Bochy was going into his second season as the team’s manager, just as Tony Vitello will be next year. The Giants were coming off a rough 71-win season in 2007 and compiled just 67 this year. Some of the team’s young talent was starting to emerge, including Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain; this year’s version would be Bryce Eldridge. 

Fans can only hope though, in this analogy, the Giants skip right to 2009. They won 72 games in 2008 and finished in fourth place. The following year, though, Pablo Sandoval was called up and 20-year-old Madison Bumgarner got a quick look. So, too, did 22-year-old catcher Buster Posey, a September call-up who appeared in seven games. The 2009 Giants won 88 games – a number that would mean a postseason slot these days. 

Randy Winn, an outfielder on the 2008-09 teams, is now the Giants’ vice president of player development, and he’d love to see this current group emulate that kind of success in a year or two – but it’s hard to see when you’re in the middle of it. 

“I’d have to say it in the rearview mirror – if we win it two years from now, then I could say, ‘Oh, yeah, I definitely could see it coming, which is cheating a little bit,” Winn said. “But in 2008, I didn’t know who Buster Posey was and when I laid eyes on him in 2009, I would not have predicted that he would have done everything that he did in 2010.  But in hindsight, seeing Buster’s career, seeing Cain’s career, seeing Timmy’s career, MadBum, yeah – now it’s easy to say.”

Here’s where a 2008 comp might make the most sense: The Giants’ relief corps, so central to the titles in 2010, ’12 and ’14, was starting to take shape, with Brian Wilson taking on the closer role – he earned 41 saves – and Sergio Romo being called up. In 2009, San Francisco added Jeremy Affeldt, and in 2010, the Core Four was complete, with Javier Lopez acquired in a midseason deal and Santiago Casilla signing as a free agent.

That’s the most important blueprint for Posey, now the team’s top baseball exec, to follow, and with Randy Rodriguez coming back from Tommy John and Camilo Doval (maybe) back in the fold, the Giants could start at least one all-out rebuild – the bullpen. 

The rotation, which currently is Logan Webb, Landen Roupp and Adrian Houser, also needs attention, but the 2008-09 Giants’ model relied on the aforementioned homegrown talent, for the most part, and San Francisco’s top young starters are, with the exception of June draft pick Jackson Flora, unavailable after Tommy John surgery. Hayden Birdsong is the only one who will be back next season, likely whenever baseball gets underway, but he might wind up a bullpen option. 

You could argue that the Giants did their rebuilding in a couple places. Catchers Daniel Susac, Drew Cavanaugh and Jesus Rodriguez all made their debuts. (A veteran catcher still makes a lot of sense to have around, even so.) In the outfield, San Francisco identified several potential regulars, including Jonah Cox, Victor Bericoto, Turner Hill and Bo Davidson. In a true rebuild, the Giants might trade Jung Hoo Lee and let the kids take over entirely in the outfield. 

How the Giants handle those young outfielders will signal whether next year is mostly a rebuild or if Posey and Zack Minasian add some key pieces and try to make a run for it. After all, Posey said he believes the team can contend next year. Adding pieces could include via trades – and those many good young outfielders, plus all the excellent shortstops in the lower levels of the system – could bring in a starter or a late-innings reliever. 

Any chatter about a Giants’ rebuild – no one is going on the record to say that’s the plan, it’s rumblings behind the scenes at this point – must note that the team’s farm system is as healthy as it’s ever been. The franchise was woefully underrated, at 19th overall coming into the season, and zoomed to No. 4 overall per Baseball America. 

Building from within is always tempting. It’s far more cost-effective, of course, and a look at those 2010-14 Giants shows what a team with a core of homegrown talent can do. The Brewers and Rays consistently use their systems to succeed, and Minasian came from Milwaukee, often a reference point as a model. 

Vitello’s expertise with college players, too, plays into a rebuild or semi-rebuild. He relates well to younger players, but had some growing pains when it came to managing veteran big leaguers. It’s those veterans, particularly Rafael Devers, Willy Adames and Matt Chapman, who change the equation a bit when discussing a rebuild – all have nine-figure contracts, not easily moved. It’s unlikely any of them are going anywhere. 

Devers is right in his prime, and he’s the sort of dangerous slugger the Giants struggle to acquire. The Devers-Eldridge lineup combo is fun to envision for many years to come, and it’s got to be tempting to surround them with some big pieces to try to pry open a window to contend. 

The best bet is some combination of the above, but the anticipated lockout might keep San Francisco more conservative when it comes to spending. A zig or zag might be profitable, but a major rebuild would be a tough sell for someone like Posey. 

“It’s the competitor in everybody,” Winn said. “You want to win, if you don’t feel like you can win, what are you doing? I think that’s the player in Buster. 

“Time will tell what happens with our group, but we’re definitely excited about some of our young players.”

Subscribe

There’s more to San Francisco with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.

This article originally published at Some Giants officials see next season looking like 2008 or ’09. Here’s what that could mean.