Prediction: Lazio vs AC Milan

Nine months ago, Ruben Amorim was fighting for his job at Manchester United.

By June, Milan had hired him anyway, and on Sunday he brings a Milan side unbeaten in three to the Stadio Olimpico with a genuine shot at going top of Serie A.

Football does not care about your resume, only about what you do next.

What he does next is walk into a Lazio side that has, statistically, been better than his own team so far.

Neither club plays in Europe this season, Lazio missed out entirely, and Milan’s Europa League bow is still days away, so this is two coaches with a full week to prepare and nothing to hide behind.

Verdict: Over 2.5 Goals
Best Odds: 1.65
Bookmaker: 1xBet

Maurizio Sarri’s Lazio are 3rd in Serie A.

Three games, three wins, nine points, four goals scored and just one conceded.

That last number is the one worth sitting with: the best defensive record of any team in the division’s top four, built by a manager who has spent the summer patching holes rather than shopping for solutions.

Because the squad Sarri is working with is thin. Genuinely thin. And Lazio are winning anyway, which is either a very good sign about the players still standing or a very fragile run about to meet a bigger test.

Lazio Team News

The absentee list reads like a bad week at the treatment table, not one injury: Alessio Furlanetto (long-term, ACL surgery), Adam Marusic, Danilo Cataldi, Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, and Nicolo Rovella are all out.

AC Milan

Amorim’s first Serie A campaign sits at 4th, seven points from three games, two wins and a draw.

The unbeaten run is intact but it took a scare to survive matchday three.

Milan led at Juventus through Alphadjo Cisse, then watched Federico Gatti equalize in stoppage time on September 6. A point on the road against a rival is not a bad result. Conceding it in the 91st minute is not a good habit.

AC Milan Team News

Christian Pulisic has been a bench option in Milan’s last few matches rather than a starter, and whether he features in Rome was not confirmed anywhere in the reporting checked for this preview.

Lazio vs AC Milan Key Factors to Consider

• Lazio are 3rd in Serie A with a perfect 3 wins from 3 games, conceding just 1 goal in that span, the best defensive record among the division’s top four sides.
• AC Milan sit 4th with 2 wins and a draw from 3 games, their unbeaten start intact but interrupted by a 1-1 draw at Juventus on September 6, having led before conceding a stoppage-time equalizer.
• Lazio are missing five senior players, Furlanetto, Marusic, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru, and Rovella, a significant chunk of squad depth for a side otherwise playing well.
• Both teams have scored freely early on: Lazio have 4 goals in 3 games and Milan have 5, while Milan’s defense has already conceded twice as often as Lazio’s.
• Neither club plays in Europe this week, Lazio missed out entirely this season and Milan’s Europa League opener falls three days after this match, so both arrive with a full week to prepare.

Conclusion

The table says backing Lazio’s defense is the safe read.

Milan have found the net in every match this season, and Lazio, missing five players, are still averaging better than a goal a game themselves.

Something has to give, and on the evidence of Juventus conceding in the 91st minute, it is more likely to be a defense than an attack. Goals at both ends is the pick, not a winner.

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