NFL Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: My favorite Week 4 selections

This season, there are two types of survivors in NFL Survivor contests:

• Those who used the 49ers in Week 2

• Those who didn’t and somehow survived anyway

So, when Week 3 came about, two road teams were among the popular choices, since, by implied win probability derived by the moneyline, the Chiefs and Seahawks were highly likely to win. 

As we see from the distribution numbers from Circa Sports’ massive Survivor contest, one made it out alive, the other didn’t:

We had the Chiefs among our top-three recommendations, but left the Seahawks out of the mix, and, sure enough, many of those wanting to save Kansas City, and who’d already used the 49ers, got washed away in the nor’easter. 

The Chiefs were the most popular selection so there wasn’t full-scale carnage in Week 3, and about a quarter of the original entrants in your pool should still be hanging around. 

Here is my Week 4 survivor pool analysis.

The number of remaining participants in your pool also changes the calculus when it comes to strategy. After all, the fewer the entrants, the less conceptual risk is necessary each week. 

Each week (until we’ve exhausted all reasonable paths of survival), we look at the Survivor Contest landscape, and the best options available, while understanding that it matters who you’ve already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.

Week 4 moneylines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.

Matt Russell

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL — an unnerving thought. 

Here’s a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread: 

• Rams: 19.7

• Bills: 18.9

• Ravens: 18.6

• Seahawks: 17.3

• Chiefs: 17.3

• 49ers: 16.7

• Bengals: 16.7

• Broncos: 16.2

• Texans: 16.2

• Jaguars: 16.2

• Lions: 15.7

• Cowboys: 15.4

• Eagles: 14.9

• Vikings: 14.9

• Packers: 13.5

• Colts: 13.2

• Bears: 12.2

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use it later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension. 

Week 4’s top choices

As we look at the best options for Week 4 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using it now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups). 

Vikings (85.1%) over Dolphins 

At 0-3, the Dolphins have been the No. 1 fade for Survivor players the last two weeks, on the road at San Francisco and at home versus the Chiefs. Those teams are playoff regulars, while the Vikings came into the season as the fourth betting choice to win the NFC North. 

Without De’Von Achane, Malik Willis will have to deal with Brian Flores’ defense without his most dangerous weapon. The Dolphins defense has shown some modest improvement, but now that he’s played a full game, Kyler Murray should be more comfortable against them than he was last week in Tampa Bay. Plus, if there’s the dreaded quarterback injury, Carson Wentz has already seen action this season.

Estimated Availability: 99.4%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 12 vs. Falcons (MIN -6.5)

• Week 13 vs. Panthers (MIN -6.5)

• Week 16 vs. Commanders (MIN -6)

With the only other times where the Vikings are a reasonable option all in games with a projected line under a full touchdown, it’s clear that this is one of those situations where it’s time to use a borderline top-18 team if you’re going to use them at all.

Ravens (85.8%) over Titans 

In 2024, the Packers and Eagles opened the season in Brazil — the first NFL game played in South America, and a 10-hour flight. 

Because that game was played on a Friday, each of them had more than a week to rest and readjust after the long road trip, but neither of them played particularly well in Week 2. In Green Bay, Jordan Love got hurt, and the Packers barely got past the Anthony Richardson-led Colts. In Philadelphia, the Eagles were beaten in the final minute by Kirk Cousins and the Falcons on a Monday night. 

The Ravens (and Cowboys) only have six days before they’re expected to play well and be trusted to win for those selecting them in Survivor. Luckily, Baltimore is playing the Titans, who’ve beaten one quarterback (Kyler Murray) that’s currently starting in the NFL since a Week 12 win over the Texans in 2024. 

Estimated Availability: 99.1%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 10 vs. Chargers (BAL -7.5)

• Week 14 vs. Buccaneers (BAL -7.5)

• Week 16 vs. Browns (BAL -11)

The Chargers and Buccaneers could have their act together by Week 10 and Week 14, respectively. 

Next to the Dolphins, the Titans set up as weekly whipping boys and one of the first looks to fade, but in Week 16 their opponent is the Raiders. There is the Lions, who host the Giants in Week 16, and New York’s starting quarterback is already lost for the season.

Seahawks (74.9%) over Chargers 

Every week, the Chargers get more desperate for a win, but are they capable of actually not shooting themselves in the metaphorical foot like they did on repeat in Buffalo? 

A trip to Seattle against an ornery team coming off a loss, who hasn’t played in front of the 12s since Sept. 9, doesn’t seem like a recipe for a breakthrough. 

Estimated Availability: 98.3%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 9 vs. Cardinals (SEA -8.5)

• Week 14 vs. Giants (SEA -10.5)

By point spread, there are two better times to use the Seahawks. Seattle’s next four opponents are legitimate playoff teams, but at least it might create a scenario where their urgency will be cranked all the way up. On top of that, we just saw the Hawks win at Arizona with Drew Lock at the helm. 

After a look at the other Week 9 matchups, I’d happily take my chances with Seattle. You just have to make it that far first. 

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor Matt Russell at THE WINDOW.