NESG presents mixed outcomes for Nigeria’s economic reforms

•Says stabilisation creates conditions for progress but doesn’t deliver it

By Emeka Anaeto, Business Editor

Amid ongoing debates among stakeholders over the performance of Nigeria’s three-and-a-half-year-old economic reforms, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has declared that the reforms have so far delivered a mixed bag of outcomes, with negative gaps far outweighing the positives.

Welcoming an array of Nigerian business elites at the 32nd edition of the Nigeria Economic Summit in Abuja yesterday, the Chairman of NESG, Mr Niyi Yusuf, said that although the reforms had delivered a measure of stability, stabilisation may create conditions for economic progress but does not deliver it.

Dissecting the major outcomes of the reforms so far, Yusuf stated: “Nigeria’s economic performance presents a mixed picture. Key macro indicators are improving, but significant constraints limit the transmission of these gains to businesses and households.

“Real GDP grew by 4.43% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 3.89% in the first quarter. Headline inflation stood at 14.63% in September, down from 34.8% in 2024. Gross external reserves reached approximately US$55.1 billion in October 2026.

“These developments deserve recognition.”

He added: “However, food inflation remained at 19.59% in September. Slower inflation does not mean prices have become affordable; it means they are rising more slowly from levels that already strain household budgets.

“The productive economy also faces constraints. Electricity and gas sector output reportedly contracted by approximately 11.6% in the first half of 2026, as generation fell from 5,400 MW in Q4 2025 to 4,454 MW in Q2 2026. Maximum lending rates stood at about 29.2% in August, while private-sector credit declined to 18.1% of GDP.”

He further noted: “Nigeria attracted approximately US$23.2 billion in foreign capital inflows so far in 2026, but portfolio investment dominated, with foreign direct investment accounting for only a small proportion.

“Public debt is rising and stood at N166.79 trillion in June 2026, while debt servicing has moderated to about 50% of federal revenue. However, transformation requires patient capital and longer-term investment in productive assets.”

Giving NESG’s overall position on the performance of the reforms so far, Yusuf stated: “These reforms have imposed considerable pressure on households and businesses, but they have also created an opportunity to reconsider the foundations of our socio-economic development.

“Our responsibility now is to ensure that reform translates into stronger enterprises, better jobs, more productive workers, rising incomes, improved living standards and shared prosperity. This is the central purpose of NES .

“Nigeria’s recent reforms, including petrol subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, fiscal restructuring, tax reforms and recapitalisation of the banking sector, represent significant changes to our economic policy framework.

“These measures were necessary to address distortions that weakened public finances and constrained the efficient allocation of resources.

“However, stabilisation creates the conditions for progress; it does not automatically deliver it. For instance, a more stable exchange rate does not, by itself, make a manufacturer competitive.

“For households, reform must mean decent jobs, greater purchasing power, improved security and reduced poverty.

“For businesses, it must mean lower production costs, reliable infrastructure, including power, higher productivity and affordable financing.”

Yusuf also outlined the focus of the 2026 NESG under the theme, “Growth that Works: Delivering Jobs, Productivity and Shared Prosperity,” saying it expresses a fundamental proposition: economic growth must create value, expand opportunity and improve lives.

He stated: “GDP growth alone cannot tell us whether enterprises are becoming more competitive or households are better off. We must judge success by the quality of jobs, the productivity of businesses and how widely prosperity reaches our people.

“Three interdependent priorities guide this Summit: Productivity, which asks how to reduce production costs, optimise outputs and strengthen competitiveness; Human Capital, which asks how to invest in education, healthcare, nutrition and skills; and Resilience, which asks how to help households and businesses withstand shocks.

“These three priorities reinforce one another. Skilled workers are more productive when enterprises have reliable infrastructure and access to technology.

“Competitive businesses generate jobs and expand investment when there are predictable regulations, fair competition and an efficient legal system.

“Effective public services, including security and social protection systems, help households sustain their participation in the economy.

“Our ambition must therefore extend beyond a larger economy to a more productive one that creates better jobs, secures livelihoods and delivers inclusive prosperity.”

Giving direction on the way forward for the reforms, Yusuf stated: “The next phase of reforms must prioritise lower production costs, reliable infrastructure, productive investment and more effective public expenditure.

“We must also confront poverty, food insecurity and gaps in access to quality education, healthcare, nutrition and productive work. We must not only talk about the fortunes of our past, but also build wealth for present and future generations.

“Nigeria’s large and youthful population is a substantial opportunity, but it will translate into prosperity only if we equip people with relevant skills and connect them to productive opportunities.

“We must look beyond the unemployment headline to informality, job quality and incomes. Having work does not necessarily mean earning an adequate income.

“We must strengthen the link between education and employment through technical and vocational training, digital capabilities and industry-relevant skills, and expand opportunities in agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, construction, tourism and digital services.

“The private sector will be central to Nigeria’s transformation: businesses organise production, employ workers and connect markets. Yet they cannot fulfil this role without an enabling operating environment.

“Our entrepreneurs are remarkably resilient, but resilience should not excuse an environment that makes productivity unnecessarily expensive.

“Unreliable electricity, expensive financing, poor transport infrastructure, insecurity and regulatory uncertainty raise costs and increase volatility, especially for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises.

“The government must sustain economic stability, provide essential public goods and ensure regulatory predictability. Businesses, in turn, must invest in technology, skills, local supply chains and export competitiveness.”