NBA over/under predictions: Win totals and best unders for 2026-27 season, including Wizards, Pacers, and Mavs originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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One of the most fun annual traditions of the NBA preseason is to try and beat the Vegas prognosticators at their own game. Win totals for all 30 teams have already been released across betting sites, and some lines look much softer than others.
Season win totals are one of the easier futures markets to beat. Because funds are locked up for a full season and limits are far lower than on single games, casual bettors are competing more with each other than the pros. You’re not going to get rich, but betting on these can be a fun way to make some beer money.
Using my win probability model and my own subjective analysis, here are the teams that I believe Vegas is too high on. In Part Two of this series, I will hit who Vegas is too low on.
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NBA over/unders and win totals for 2026-27 season
TeamTotalOVERUNDERAtlanta Hawks44.5-105-125Boston Celtics49.5-120-105Brooklyn Nets24.5-105-120Charlotte Hornets37.5-105-120Chicago Bulls29.5-110-115Cleveland Cavaliers47.5-105-120Dallas Mavericks35.5+100-125Denver Nuggets48.5-105-120Detroit Pistons49.5-105-120Golden State Warriors39.5-105-120Houston Rockets46.5-110-120Indiana Pacers43.5-120-105Los Angeles Clippers28.5-110-115Los Angeles Lakers45.5-105-120Memphis Grizzlies28.5-110-115Miami Heat45.5-105-120Milwaukee Bucks24.5-120-105Minnesota Timberwolves48.5-110-115New Orleans Pelicans28.5-110-115New York Knicks51.5-115-110Oklahoma City Thunder60.5-105-120Orlando Magic44.5-105-120Philadelphia 76ers50.5-105-125Phoenix Suns39.5-105-120Portland Trail Blazers43.5-105-120Sacramento Kings21.5-115-110San Antonio Spurs60.5-105-120Toronto Raptors45.5-115-110Utah Jazz36.5-120-105Washington Wizards35.5-105-120
Best NBA win total under bets
Best bet: Wizards under 35.5 wins (-120)
What the model thinks: My model has the Wizards at 22.5 wins, the furthest below the Vegas line of any team in the league.
The Vegas expectation is that Trae Young, Anthony Davis, and AJ Dybantsa will lift the Wizards from their league-worst 17 wins last season. They will certainly improve, but the model believes that doubling their wins is way too optimistic.
My model has Trae Young as an average starter, well below the All-NBA player that he was during his prime several years ago. Young only managed to play in 15 games during an injury-riddled last season and didn’t look particularly great in those appearances.
Davis is still an All-Star player but suited up for only 20 games last year. The model has him penciled in for an optimistic 53 games. He’s a potential trade candidate, and losing him mid-season would substantially hurt the Wizards.
The model doesn’t have Dybantsa helping much either. Most rookies are generally breakeven or negative value players. If Dybantsa can get to the level of Cooper Flagg, whose Dallas team had only 26 wins last year, then he will contribute about what an average veteran does in terms of winning impact.
Even if those stars outperform the model’s projections, Washington should still comfortably hit the under. The Wizards have several massively negative players in their rotation. Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, and Alex Sarr have all showed promise as young players but haven’t been able to win their minutes quite yet.
What I think: The model is too low on the Wizards’ young players, who have been overtaxed in their roles and should be much better with Young setting them up. Even given that blind spot and the fact that Washington will be trying to win games instead of tank, Vegas’ win total is way too high.
The case for the Wizards hitting this over depends too heavily on Young experiencing a career revitalization. Those who watched him in Atlanta over the past few years know that he’s lost a step athletically, his floater is no longer the devastating weapon that it once was, and his shooting touch from 3 has declined considerably.
The Wizards also don’t have particularly strong coaching needed to overachieve. Brian Keefe has the excuse that the Wizards have been trying to lose games, but he hasn’t shown anything as far as knowing which players are his strongest, what schemes best suit them, or how to play them off each other. Other tanking coaches like Jordi Fernandez and Will Hardy have shown very high tactical acumen in similar tanking situations. Keefe will likely be on the hot seat if the Wizards start off as poorly as I expect.
The Wizards will be trying harder, but so will all of the other tanking teams from last year against whom they picked up most of their wins. They’re in a far more competitive Eastern Conference, both at the top and bottom. They don’t have the depth needed to rack up regular season wins, and certainly not to the extent that Vegas thinks.
Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images
Mavericks under 35.5 (-125)
What the model thinks: My model has the Mavericks comfortably hitting the under at 25.5 wins. That would make them about as good as they were last year, when they won 26 games.
Kyrie Irving is the Mavericks’ best player in the eyes of the model. At the age of 34 and coming off an ACL injury, he’s no longer close to an All-Star though. His impact is also limited by injury history and the potential to be traded mid-season.
Cooper Flagg is the next-best player. Flagg will be an All-NBA player at some point in his career. He’s not there yet. It’s important to remember that he is still only 19 years old and younger than even many of the freshmen selected in the 2026 draft. The model has him at about neutral impact, which is completely in-line for star second-year players.
After those two, the Mavericks don’t have any high-end talent. Rookie Morez Johnson and former No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher will likely be in the rotation. Both are projected to be significant minuses in their minutes. The Hawks experienced a huge uptick in wins last season after removing Risacher from their starting lineup.
Santi Aldama is a low-end starting forward that will probably be the team’s third-best player, but he is in a very crowded rotation including Flagg, P.J. Washington, and Johnson. Other veterans like Klay Thompson and Caleb Martin are significant negatives at this point in their careers.
What I think: The model is probably too low on Flagg, but the Mavericks aren’t doing him any favors. They tasked him with a tough new role as a point forward last season, which did not go particularly well. He may have to continue in that again after Dallas subtracted point guard depth with the trade of Ryan Nembhard. Aside from Irving, whose health is an issue, they have rookie Sergio De Larrea and not much else on the roster. Advantage creation will again be an issue for this offense.
The Mavericks should be better given they were more focused on lottery odds than winning games last year. They didn’t do some of the egregious moves of some other teams though, and 10 of their wins came from other tanking teams that will also be trying harder this year. They’ll get a bump, but not a huge one.
The coaching change is the wildcard here. Will college coach Dusty May be a significant upgrade over Jason Kidd? May was certainly terrific at the college level, but the track record for college coaches coming to the NBA is not filled with a lot of success stories.
If the Mavs do hit the over, it will be because of a massive leap by Flagg and a rookie year by May that should put him in the running for Coach of the Year honors. More likely, they’ll overperform the model’s guess but underperform what Vegas thinks.
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Pacers under 43.5 (-105)
What the model thinks: The Pacers are the most difficult team to peg. Two years ago, they won 50 games and were one half away from winning the championship. Last season, with an injury to Tyrese Haliburton and starting center Myles Turner departing, they dropped all the way down to 19 wins.
Vegas expects them to rebound by over 24 wins after returning Haliburton, adding a new starting center in Ivica Zubac, wing depth with Kelly Oubre, and drafting backup point guard Braden Smith.
My model is a lot lower, placing them at 40 wins. Haliburton should return to All-Star form and Zubac is just a shade below that level. The model is much lower than consensus (and my own opinion) on Pascal Siakam, placing him as the team’s third-best player.
That is a solid top three. What drags the Pacers’ win total down though is the next tier in the rotation. Indiana has a bunch of veterans that aren’t going to move the needle much.
Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin were playoff heroes, elevating their games during that magical Finals run. They weren’t particularly amazing in the regular season over the past two years, and the model reflects that reality. Oubre and backup big man Jay Huff fall into that same bucket.
The Pacers were terrible last year in large part because their young players failed to step up. The back end of the rotation, featuring Jarace Walker, Ben Sheppard, and others, are what really drags the Pacers down. They have three good-to-elite starters, five solid veterans, and the talent falls off a cliff from there.
Given the style they play, featuring a ton of fast breaks and aggressive defense, they have to lean on that part of their rotation more than other teams as players get tired or injured.
What I think: The model is way too low on Siakam, who is a top 25 player in the league. Even after adjusting him to an All-Star level where he should be, the Pacers still only project for 42 wins, hitting their under.
The real question here is with Haliburton, who raises the level of all of his teammates with his brilliant passing. Back in 2025, he started the year off slowly as he dealt with injuries. The Pacers opened the season with a 16-18 record before Jan. 1. It wasn’t until later in the year where Haliburton got healthier and they really began dominating.
It’s reasonable to think that the same may be true in 2026. If Haliburton comes out as a top-10 player from Game 1 and continues it all season, then the Pacers will hit the over. But he hasn’t played basketball in over a year, rehabbing that Achilles and suffering a nasty bout of shingles in the interim. It may take some time for him to rediscover his rhythm.
The other obviously scary part about taking the under on the Pacers is Rick Carlisle, who is in my opinion the best tactician in the NBA. Last year’s tanking job aside, he always gets the best out of his talent. Betting against him seems like a fool’s errand. But even Carlisle needed a season and a half before figuring out how to maximize Haliburton. He has two key new pieces in Zubac and Oubre.
The Pacers are going to be a dangerous playoff team. But as in 2025, they may take their time getting there, finishing with a modest regular season record before turning on the jets in the postseason.
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