NBA Draft bust candidates: Nate Ament, Jayden Quaintance among riskiest picks in 2026

NBA Draft bust candidates: Nate Ament, Jayden Quaintance among riskiest picks in 2026 originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Are NBA teams getting better at identifying talent?

While drafts in the early 2010s were littered with some high-lottery picks that are simply baffling in hindsight, genuine “busts” have seemingly become rarer in recent years. The top four picks of last year’s draft all look like franchise cornerstones, and the 2026 draft class is believed to be even better.

The draft always comes with risk, though. Some of the top prospects in this year’s class are particularly risky, to the point that teams might want to steer clear on draft night.

Here’s a look at the top five bust candidates in the 2026 NBA Draft. 

MORE:Way-too-early NBA power rankings for 2026-27

2026 NBA Draft bust candidates

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Nate Ament, Tennessee

• Age: 19, freshman
• Position: Forward
• Measurements: 6-9, 205 lbs

Viewed as a potential top-five pick entering his freshman season at Tennessee, some wondered whether Ament would consider a return to the Vols for a second season after an up-and-down year. Ament’s stock was ultimately too high to justify that, but there are legitimate questions about his game as he heads to the next level.

Ament shot under 40 percent from the field despite his size, struggling to consistently finish at the rim in part because of his slender build. Ament’s athleticism allows to do much more than just hang out near the rim, as he can shoot the 3-pointer and defend the perimeter, so one team will bank on him rounding out his offensive game and becoming a legitimate two-way standout. If he can’t make a major leap offensively, however, Ament won’t be a player worthy of a lottery pick.

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Jayden Quaintance

• Age: 18, sophomore
• Position: Forward/enter
• Measurements: 6-10, 255 pounds

Quaintance is the Cedric Coward of this draft. They aren’t necessarily similar players, but Coward’s impressive traits sent him rocketing up draft boards despite missing most of the previous season and facing weaker competition in his only full collegiate season. 

Coward was a success story for the Grizzlies, but not every “toolsy” player will be. Quaintance won’t turn 19 years old until July and showed flashes with 7.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game across 24 contests at Arizona State in 2024-25, but he was limited to only four games at Kentucky after his recovery from an ACL tear didn’t go according to plan.

If healthy, Quaintance’s potential is understandably exciting. His size and strength make him a menace on the defensive end, and he plays hard. Between his injury concerns and little proof that he is NBA-ready offensively, however, Quaintance would be a risky pick anywhere near the lottery.

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Yaxel Lendeborg, Michigan

• Age: 23, senior
• Position: Power forward
• Measurements: 6-10, 240 pounds

Much has been made about Lendeborg’s age, and the reality is he is a bit of a unicorn in a lottery riddled with freshmen. Not only is Lendeborg a senior, but he will be 24 years old on opening night.

Lendeborg is probably too gifted not to have a fairly long NBA career, but in this draft, a lottery pick will be expected to be a long-term starter. Is that what Lendeborg is? If there isn’t so much room for growth, the Michigan star could be a quality high-motor player with intangibles. Because he started playing basketball so late, though, some teams might see Lendeborg as someone who isn’t done growing offensively.

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Koa Peat, Arizona

• Age: 19, freshman
• Position: Power forward
• Measurements: 6-8, 245 pounds

Peat had by far the most interesting stay-or-go decision leading up to the deadline in May, and he decided to keep his name in despite his stock slipping from the top 10 to perhaps the last 10 picks of the first round.

It may get to a point that Peat falls so far he’s no longer a bust candidate, but there is some real risk here. The freshman didn’t exactly improve as his season at Arizona went on, instead struggling offensively as teams started to figure him out. Peat’s defense was a problem at times because his size doesn’t always match up near the rim at 6-foot-8. Any team taking Peat inside the top 20 will be taking a gamble, though the potential is there.

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Mikel Brown Jr., Louisville

• Age: 20, freshman
• Position: Point guard
• Measurements: 6-5, 190 pounds

The concerns with Brown are two-fold, as he was an inconsistent shooter as an older freshman at Louisville and missed considerable time with back issues that reportedly have been a problem for quite some time. A back injury isn’t so simple to project long-term, and there also questions about Brown’s defense given his slight frame.

With that being said, Brown had some explosive moments offensively as a freshman at Louisville. When he got hot, few shooters in the country were better than him. The hope is Brown will continue developing his shot and ultimately become a legitimate weapon in the NBA. If a team feels he can be that type of player, all of the other concerns might be secondary.