Israeli exit polls suggest no clear winner in pivotal general election

Image source, EPA/Reuters

Benjamin Netanyahu (L) and Gadi Eisenkot (R) both claimed victory in response to the exit polls

Exit polls suggest there is no clear winner of Israel’s pivotal general election, with neither veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor former military chief Gadi Eisenkot on track to secure a majority.

Two Israeli broadcasters projected that Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition parties in his “Change Bloc” would win 51 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, as would Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish allies. A third broadcaster’s poll gave Netanyahu a lead of three seats.

Much will depend on the role played by the two Arab parties, which were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats.

Voter turnout on Tuesday was the highest in decades.

It stood at 77.7% when polls closed at 22:00 local time (20:00 GMT), which was the highest at that hour since 1999, the Central Elections Committee said.

Official results will start to be published overnight, but an estimated 600,000 absentee ballots cast mostly by military personnel – around 10% of the total number of votes – will not be fully counted until Thursday.

Once the final results are confirmed, and following consultations with all the political factions, Israel’s president will invite the party leader whom he believes has the best chance of success to form a governing coalition – a process that could take weeks.

If they fail, then ultimately there would have to be another election.

Latest updates from Israel’s election

At the headquarters of Eisenkot’s Yashar party in Tel Aviv, his supporters cheered and chanted “Bibi, go home!” after the initial exit polls published by public broadcaster Kan, Channel 12 and Channel 13 projected that his bloc would emerge as the biggest in the Knesset, with between 52 and 53 seats, compared to 50 seats for Netanyahu’s governing coalition.

Eisenkot said they had “made history” and promised to “ensure that the people’s decision is translated into a Zionist government: stable and good for all of Israel’s citizens”.

His ally in the Beyachad party, former prime minister Yair Lapid, said Netanyahu’s bloc had suffered a “crushing defeat”.

However, there was no sign of surrender at the Jerusalem headquarters of Netanyahu’s Likud party, which was projected to be the largest party in parliament.

Supporters there told the BBC that they were nervous. “It’s not over until it’s over, but I’m sweating,” Itzik said.

Netanyahu’s ally, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar, said celebrations on the left were “premature”, while National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir told supporters of his far-right Jewish Power party to pray that the final results would lead to a “full-on right-wing government”.

In the early hours of Wednesday, the broadcasters updated their exit polls. Kan and Channel 13’s projections showed the blocs tied on 51 seats, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu’s bloc 52 seats and Eisenkot’s 49.

Later, Netanyahu appeared at Likud’s headquarters and declared in a speech that his right-wing bloc had a “great majority”. He also called for the formation of “a strong, right-wing national government”.

The two Arab parties – the United Arab List and the Joint List – were projected to win several extra seats in parliament following a reportedly strong turnout among Arab Israelis, who account for about a fifth of the population and often describe themselves as Palestinian citizens of Israel.

They are emerging as the kingmakers in the election, but only one party has openly backed working with them in government.

“I hope that the numbers will work out and we, the Change Bloc and the UAL, can ensure that there are 61 Knesset seats,” United Arab List leader Mansour Abbas said.

After the 2021 elections, Abbas’s party was part of a governing coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which lasted a year before collapsing.

The chairman of the Joint List, Yousef Jabareen, warned that the grouping “cannot be ignored under any political scenario”.

Tuesday’s election was the first since the deadly Hamas-led attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

It was also seen by Israelis as one of the most consequential in the country’s history, because it could decide not just their leadership but whether the country continues on its current hard-line, religious-nationalist trajectory.

Key campaign issues included accountability for the security failures that led to the 7 October attacks, the conduct of regional wars, how to share the growing burden of military service, judicial reforms, and Israel’s international standing.

Outside a polling station in an opposition stronghold in northern Tel Aviv, campaigners young and old were out in force, using every last moment to win that extra vote.

Zivit Abramson, 88, told the BBC that she had voted for Eisenkot because Netanyahu was “ruining this country”. “He’s all about himself, only about himself,” she added.

Elsewhere, Claire Tugendhaft said she had voted for Netanyahu “because I think he’s the best man in the country to lead the country towards the outside world”.

The prime minister and his government allies urged their supporters to head to the polls with warnings about a surge in turnout among left-wing and Arab voters.

“If you don’t vote, we’ll wake up tomorrow with a left-wing government, Arab parties, extreme Islam, and we’ll lose the country,” Netanyahu was filmed saying.

Likud and several other right-wing parties asked for voting hours to be extended beyond 22:00 local time – a move many of their opponents saw as a sign of growing desperation.

The Central Elections Committee ultimately rejected their request, saying that “the current circumstances do not justify an extension” and that the high turnout “reflects strong public engagement in the democratic process”.

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