Fantasy Baseball: What to do with Corbin Carroll, Austin Riley in the second half — plus, a few sneaky waiver-wire adds

We’re at the point in the fantasy baseball season where we have to make tough decisions based on our team needs in rotisserie, points and head-to-head categories. Injuries can make those moves easier if you’ve been stashing an injured hitter or pitcher. Meanwhile, there have been hitters on waivers that contributed in the short term or stayed on our rosters. That said, the point of this article is to examine hitters that are struggling or succeeding to see if it’s been supported by luck or skill. 

If you have any hitters you’re wondering about, reach out on X (@corbin_young21). 

Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks (99% Rostered)

After a 30/30 season in 2025, Carroll hasn’t met expectations this year. He dealt with hip and back issues earlier in the season, so that could be impacting him this year. Interestingly, Carroll has been struggling to make contact (73.3%) this season, over four points below his career average. As a left-handed hitter, Carroll has been gradually pulling the ball more often, with a career-high 50.2% pull rate, six points higher than his career average. 

Corbin Young via FanGraphs

He is consistently pulling the ball into the air 22.9% of the time this season, though there can be diminishing returns when a hitter pulls over half the time. Carroll’s 75.5 mph bat speed has increased nearly 1 mph, as an upward trend of a mph compared to the previous two seasons. He rocks an above-average 7.6% barrel rate per plate appearance, though it’s lower than the 2025 numbers (9.3%). The projections suggest Carroll should hit 25+ home runs, though the lack of stolen bases might be the most notable.

After a 28% stolen base opportunity rate in 2024 and 2025, Carroll’s percentage dropped to 13% this season. That coincides with Carroll’s 30+ stolen base upside likely being unattainable this year, with the projections expecting 20-25. Maybe the lower stolen base opportunity rate might be noisy, given the injuries early in the year. If there’s a spike in stolen bases, he’ll need to run hot to reach 30. 

Carroll’s power is legitimate, especially since he is pulling the ball more often into the air and barreling the ball more consistently. This could present a buying opportunity in dynasty or keeper leagues, though we won’t want to sell in redraft formats. Carroll posting 25/25 might not be what fantasy managers expected, but it’s still a high-end fantasy producer.

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves (84% Rostered)

As I was drafting this article, Riley smacked a two-homer game, making me wonder if he might be turning it around. He used to bat in the middle (4th or 5th) of the Braves’ lineup, but he has been batting more toward the bottom third in recent weeks. After some optimism around Riley running more often this season, the numbers across the board have been brutal. Injuries affected Riley in the previous two seasons, but he has been healthy this year. 

Fantasy managers hoped that Riley would provide them with power, but 30+ home runs might not happen this season. Riley maintained his high-end bat speed (75.8 mph) with his 6.8% barrel rate per plate appearance falling to a career low. For context, Riley boasted a barrel rate per plate appearance at 9% or higher for four consecutive seasons before 2026. 

Corbin Young

Riley had a 104.2 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) last season, ranking 14th. His EV50 dipped 2 mph (102 mph), ranking 51st this season. That supports his barrel rates falling since he isn’t hitting the ball as hard this year. With such a large track record for Riley, it makes us want to buy into the larger sample, rather than this year’s power dip.

Riley typically provided a serviceable batting average, but it’s hit a new low (.216) this year. He has been unlucky, given a .284 BABIP is nearly 40 points below his career norm. Riley’s 70.7% contact rate is over one point below his career average. After having a zone rate at 72% or higher in 2024 and 2025, Riley’s zone swing rate fell to 66.5% this year, which is over six points below his career average. That shows Riley is being more passive when pitches come into the zone, which could be leading to some decision-making challenges at the plate. 

I want to buy low on Riley, but this might be an outlier season and we can buy the dip next year. He might be one to avoid in leagues with points and OBP, given the low contact rates and lower walk rates, especially if the power doesn’t come around. In shallower leagues, fantasy managers might be better off streaming power off waivers. Overall, managers with Riley need to adjust expectations because he projects more like a 25 home run hitter instead of 35+ this season. 

Tristan Peters, OF, White Sox (7% Rostered)

Peters has been rolling since the middle of June. Since June 16, he has three home runs, one steal and a .269 batting average. Throughout the season, Peters’ .335 BABIP is fueling his season-long batting average (.285). However, he supports the BABIP by making contact 80.2% of the time and putting the ball into play often.

Peters pulls the ball 55.9% of the time this season with a 27% pulled air rate. Unfortunately, he lacks exit velocity, given his below-average 3.7% barrel rate per plate appearance and 69.8 mph bat speed. As the projections indicate, Peters should reach double-digit home runs, but it might take some luck to reach 15 homers, indicating below-average to mediocre power skills. There’s a chance he obtains the most out of his power by pulling the ball into the air often.

Peters isn’t a strict strong-side platoon option, as he started against four out of seven left-handed starting pitchers since July 1. He is an athletic (86th percentile Sprint Speed) center fielder with good defense (97th percentile Outs Above Average), so his glove will keep him in the lineup. 

Peters profiles as more of a compiler in rotisserie leagues, with batting average being his best asset, since he hits toward the bottom third of the White Sox lineup. 

Jake McCarthy, OF, Rockies (66% Rostered)

McCarthy has been an underrated hitter who already reached a career-best in home runs (10). Meanwhile, McCarthy is ready to swipe 25 or more stolen bases this season, as the Rockies’ leadoff hitter. After an outlier .233 BABIP last season with the Diamondbacks across 222 plate appearances, McCarthy’s .347 BABIP rebounded closer to his career norm, allowing him to post a career-high .306 batting average this season.

Corbin Young via FanGraphs

Playing in Colorado helps to boost a player’s batting average and BABIP, so this is the optimal scenario, especially for a hitter that makes contact often (79.9% contact rate). That said, where did the power come from? McCarthy’s 71.1 mph bat speed is a career high, up over 1 mph from last season. Furthermore, McCarthy has been pulling the ball into the air 16.2%, four points higher than his career average. 

After a lower 16% stolen base opportunity rate last year, McCarthy’s average jumped to 28%, identical to his career norm. As a speedster (99th percentile Sprint Speed), McCarthy has been given the green light to run often, which bodes well for him while he hits leadoff for the Rockies.

The projections suggest McCarthy could reach 13-14 home runs, 25 stolen bases and a .270 to .280 batting average, which would lead toward a career-best in earned value for him. 

Mauricio Dubón, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Braves (47% Rostered)

If we said Dubón would be a regular part of the Braves’ lineup throughout the entire season, many would’ve questioned us. Over Dubón’s eight seasons in the majors, he never reached 500 plate appearances. However, he projects to surpass 500 plate appearances this year while playing all over the infield and outfield.

Dubón has already matched a career-best in home runs (10), with below-average power, given his 3.5% barrel rate per plate appearance. Since he hasn’t been hitting the ball harder, pulling the ball into air or barreling it more often, he probably has been fortunate with 10 home runs and 14 barrels this season. Assuming the playing time remains favorable for Dubón, he projects to reach 15 home runs, which indicates league-average power.

The calling card for Dubón as a prospect and in the majors is his hit tool. That’s been evident in Dubón’s 85.1% contact rate this year, two points above his career norm. He uses an aggressive approach, given his 52.2% swing rate and 40.4% chase rate, with both metrics being 5-7 points higher than the league average. 

None of Dubón’s skills changed, so he has been earning more fantasy value based on his playing time. Value Dubón as a streamer in medium- to deep-league formats.