Diamondbacks 8, Marlins 7: Not dead yet!

I know I said I’d stay sober tonight. But I’m sure no-one will begrudge a small libation given the circumstances. It was not looking good for the Diamondbacks. The Padres beat the Rockies to extend their winning streak to eight games (five of those being one-run wins, and only one by more than two), and extend their lead in the NL wild-card race to three games. Meanwhile, the D-backs were playing uphill baseball against the Marlins, who had swept them earlier in the season in Miami. Arizona trailed 7-4 in the middle of the eighth, but the never-say-Diamondbacks scored two there, and the much-maligned Corbin Carroll swatted a walk-off two-run homer in the ninth. [Sound effect: can opening]

That was the only pitch of the game where Arizona led, but it was the only one that mattered. This was an undeniably ugly win. But it sure beats the alternatives: a defeat would have meant the D-backs falling 3.5 games back and effectively, for now, rendering the end-of-season series against the Padres irrelevant. We began with Corbin Burnes on the mound, making his second start since coming back from TJ surgery. The first inning saw him retire the Marlins in order. The second? Not so much. A pair of singles, a two-run triple and a sacrifice fly saw Miami take a quick 3-0 lead. Let the dooming commence!

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“Not so fast,” says the most beloved of D-backs, Lars Nootbaar and Pavin Smith. Smith kicked off the bottom of the third inning with a double, then Jordan Lawlar singled through the right-side to put runners on the corners with no outs. Lawlar stole second, and Smith came home on the same play, to get Arizona on the board. It was his second stolen base of the year, tying his career high [To be fair, he is 9-3 in SB attempts for his career, a perfectly respectable 75% success rate] Lawlar took third as the throw home skittered away, but Nootbaar rendered that moot, with his fourth homer since coming to Arizona (above). That tied the game back at 3-3, so a brand-new ballgame.

“Not so fast,” said the Marlins. Back-to-back homeruns off Burnes with two outs in the fourth restored their lead. He did finish the frame and got through two outs in the fifth before being lifted at exactly the expected limit of 75 pitches. He allowed five runs on five hits, though walked none and struck out four. It’s pretty much what I think most people expected. He’s a work in progress, velocity still a couple of miles per hour down on what was to be expected. Mistakes are likely to be hit hard and go a long way. But I’d expect next start to be better, and the one after that, and so on.

Meanwhile, it felt like the Arizona hitters were going to waste too many opportunities. They had the lead-off man on base seven of the nine innings played tonight, on five hits and two walks. But outside of the third inning, they largely failed to take advantage. In the fifth, they loaded the bases with one out, thanks to a Nootbaar single, Gabriel Moreno HBP (fortunately, the 98 mph fastball came off his chest before hitting his wrist) and Geraldo Perdomo walk. Carroll then dropped a soft blooper down the left-field line for a welcome RBI single, to make it 5-4 and keep the bases loaded. But Nolan Arenado struck out, and Tim Tawa grounded out.

Jonathan Loaisiga had taken over for Burnes, and pitched a scoreless 1.1 innings. Unfortunately, It was Mr. Ginkel who showed up tonight, rather than Doctor Ginkel. The Marlins scored twice off him in the seventh, giving them a 7-4 edge. The bottom half saw the Diamondbacks waste another golden opportunity: this time, men on the corners with no outs, courtesy of hits from Ketel Marte and Moreno. But Perdomo, Carroll and Arenado all struck out. Let the dooming intensify, as word of the Padres’ squeaking out a win in Coors came through, and our Win Probability dropped as low as 5.3%.

That came after a one-out triple in the eighth off Justin Martinez, fresh off his immaculate inning. This one? Not so much. It was a zero, but only after he had loaded the bases, and also had a runner thrown out at home plate. But it kept the score 7-4, and Arizona mounted their latest, and perhaps most desperately needed, comeback in the bottom of the eighth. Tim Tawa walked to get things started, and one out later, it was a one-run game, after Lawlar’s fifth home-run of the year. Juan Morillo worked a scoreless top of the ninth, and Marlins’ closer Pete Fairbanks entered, recently off the injured list.

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It seems he might be back on there, throwing only six pitches with one strike, and walking Moreno, before the Miami trainer came out and Fairbanks was lifted. They turned to Jack Ralston, a pitcher with only 10 games in the majors, and Perdomo got down a bunt, moving pinch-runner Tommy Troy into scoring position. There was… some discussion as to whether that was wise, given Carroll’s recent struggles. But he succeeded in proving the critics wrong, blasting his 21st home-run of the year, just fair down the right-field line (above), and giving the D-backs a extremely necessary victory, their 45th comeback.

Nootbaar had three hits, Carroll and Lawlar a pair apiece. Perdomo draw a pair of walks, while Moreno reached three times on a trifecta – a hit, walk and HBP. Also of note, Arizona pitchers struck out thirteen batters tonight, the most since April 10 in Philadelphia when they fanned 16. Morillo and Ginkel both recorded all their outs by the K.

Click for details at Fangraphs
Lazarus: Corbin Carroll, +71%
Robert Downey Jr.: Moreno, +22%; Lawlar, +17%; Nootbaar, +16%

Gal Gadot sings Imagine: Corbin Burnes, -33%
Limp Bizkit: Ginkel, -18%; Arenado, -13%; Tawa, -11%

Thanks to everyone who stuck it out in the Gameday Thread until the unexpectedly happy ending. Naturally, I do have to give Comment of the Thread to one of the Corbin doubters in the ninth inning. Though let’s face it, I suspect most of us were harboring not dissimilar sentiments as Prof:

Same two teams tomorrow, with Michael Soroka starting tomorrow. And we might be forgiven, for once for saying we can’t hit Junk. Because that’s the name of the Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk. 6:40 pm first pitch on that. I’d not mind a slightly less-dramatic victory there…