Breaking Down Red Sox Playoff Scenarios Entering Final Regular Season Stretch

Breaking Down Red Sox Playoff Scenarios Entering Final Regular Season Stretch originally appeared on NESN.
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The Red Sox still have three series and nine games left on their schedule, but the team doesn’t have much else to decide for the playoff picture.

Boston’s spot in the AL standings is pretty safe, as the team has a cushion both above them and below them among the wild card contenders. Even though the Red Sox have a chance to play the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays this week and the No. 6 seed Cleveland Guardians next week, it is pretty unlikely that Boston moves at all in the standings.

Still, the Red Sox opponents this week means they could still impact the playoff picture a major way, even if they aren’t likely to move themselves. Here’s where the Red Sox stand in the playoff picture entering this weekend’s series vs. the Rays.

Can the Red Sox win the AL East?

The Red Sox are no longer eligible to win the AL East.

With the Rays most recent surge, Tampa Bay eliminated Boston from the chance at winning the division title with 10.5 games back and nine games remaining. Even if the Red Sox sweep the Rays in Tampa Bay this weekend, Boston is too far back in the standings to catch the current AL East leaders.

Red Sox Wild Card scenarios

It is extremely likely that the Red Sox earn the second wild card and No. 5 seed in the American League playoffs. Boston remains 5.5 games back of the New York Yankees for the first wild card spot, but are five games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for the No. 5 seed in the standings.

The Red Sox have a chance to bury the Guardians completely this week, when the two teams meet at Fenway Park beginning on Tuesday. Cleveland is still fighting for the AL Central crown too, which also brings the Chicago White Sox into play.

All things considered, unless the Yankees collapse in their final 10 games of the season, or the Red Sox themselves collapse, Boston secure in its spot in the playoff standings.

Red Sox likely playoff opponents

Since the Yankees chances of winning the AL East is unlikely, the Red Sox most likely playoff scenario is playing the Yankees in New York during the wild card series.

The Rays are currently five games up on New York in the AL East, and they need just one win over the Yankees in their next series vs. New York to secure the tiebreak on the season. Tampa Bay has three against Boston this week and four games in New York to begin next week, giving the Rays a chance to cement the seeding for the AL playoff.

Although those three AL East teams have the three best records in the American League, they will have to go through each other to begin the playoffs. The second- and third-place finishers in the divisions will most likely have to play each other in the wild card series, and the winner of that series will have to play the AL East winner in the ALDS.

On the off chance that the Red Sox stumble down the stretch and fall to the No. 6 seed, they would actually have an easier path in the playoffs of facing the AL Central and AL West winners in the first two rounds. However, Boston would have to struggle mightily in the last nine games for that to come into play.

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