Anadolu via Getty ImagesMorocco was the better team for most of its Round-of-16 match with Netherlands, eventually advancing on penalties. This is a better Morocco team than the semifinalist from four years ago, now as comfortable with the ball as without.
The Atlas Lions will have the bulk of the ball in the Round of 16 against Canada, and they’ll be able to find holes in Canada’s defense while still preventing many counterattack chances. Also, remember that this game is in Houston, so Canada won’t have much if any home-field advantage.
Were the tournament’s two best teams not Morocco’s likely quarterfinal (France) and semifinal (Spain) opponents, I’d consider bumping them up a couple spots.
Icon Sportswire via Getty Images7. Norway
Norway is unbeaten in four previous matchups with Brazil and is the only country Brazil has played and never beaten. I think that streak continues on Sunday.
Erling Haaland has scored plenty of goals against Gabriel and Marquinhos, Brazil’s stellar center-back pairing, and the midfield of Martin Ødegaard and Co. should be able to carve up Brazil’s midfield (and anyone else’s) like Japan did in the first half. I have a little concern about Norway’s depth over four more games, but there’s little doubt Norway has a ceiling as high as almost any team, fully capable of getting out of this quadrant of the bracket.
8. Brazil
The attacking talent of Vinícius Júnior and Co. gives Brazil an extremely high ceiling. The midfield of Casemiro and Co. gives Brazil a low floor, as do the outside backs that will surely be attacked by every opponent the rest of the way. Had Japan not been missing its two top attackers, Brazil might already be heading home.
Those issues, plus a tough quadrant that includes Norway and England/Mexico, makes me more down on Brazil than most. I also admit that Carlo Ancelotti could figure out how to cover Brazil’s shortcomings, making them the most volatile team left in the tournament.
Catherine Ivill – AMA via Getty Images9. United States
The U.S. took care of business in a 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina on Wednesday, then opened as a slight favorite to advance over Belgium in the Round of 16. The odds have shifted slightly toward Belgium, perhaps in part because Folarin Balogun is suspended for his questionable red card.
Either way, the U.S. is still nearly a coin flip to reach the World Cup quarterfinals, and that’s rarely if ever been true before. I wouldn’t expect the U.S. to repeat its 2009 upset of Spain after that, but even I as a numbers guy am won over by the U.S. intangibles of team spirit and home-field fan support. South Korea made a semifinal run as host in 2002. Why not U.S.?
10. Mexico
That second U.S. paragraph is mostly true for Mexico too. The Round-of-16 match against England at Azteca is the knockout-stage match I most wanted to see, and it happens Sunday.
Mexico’s defense has not yet conceded a goal, and while that’s likely a hot streak against not-great offensive teams, the 2.3 expected goals conceded are still third-fewest among remaining teams. El Tri (and fans and elevation and smog) should be able to frustrate England multiple ways, and a matchup with Norway or Brazil wouldn’t be overwhelming. Mexico has reached the World Cup quarterfinals only at home (twice), and doing so again wouldn’t be shocking.
11. Belgium
I still don’t know how Belgium beat Senegal, after creating almost nothing for 85 minutes before scoring twice in regulation and then getting a generous penalty to win in extra time. That was the latest unimpressive performance for Belgium, which has only looked good against drastically outmatched New Zealand.
Belgium has started slowly in its toughest three games at this tournament, failing to score against Egypt, Iran and Senegal in the first half. That’s trouble against a U.S. team that has scored in all four first halves so far, and Belgium’s aging legs will only be more of an issue as the tournament goes on. Even if Belgium gets by the co-hosts, I don’t see any way the Red Devils could hang with Spain in the quarters.
Tier 3: Another win would be surprising
Again, this final tier is self-explanatory.
COLE BURSTON via Getty Images12. Portugal
In a vacuum, Portugal could be half a dozen spots higher. In the real world, Portugal is going to struggle against a Spain team that’s given up the fewest shots and expected goals of any remaining team.
Four games in, Portugal is still struggling to figure out how to play with Cristiano Ronaldo up top. Roberto Martínez’s side has 5.6 non-penalty expected goals, 12th-most among remaining teams. Almost half of that total came against Uzbekistan, and Portugal has had 62% possession so far, a number that will get cut by a third or more against Spain.
Portugal obviously has the talent to go deeper in the tournament, but has shown no capability of doing so as a team.
13. Switzerland
The always-steady Swiss have taken care of business against four inferior opponents so far, but now they’ll run into Colombia and then probably Argentina. That’s a huge leap forward in difficulty, and I don’t see the Swiss making the jump.
They didn’t pile up chances in their last three games, taking a total of 30 shots. That bodes poorly against two South American teams that will be better both defensively and offensively. Switzerland could hang around with Colombia, but doesn’t have the ceiling to make a deeper run.
14. Canada
I’d give Canada more of a chance to upset Morocco were this game in Vancouver. But it’s in Houston, where Canada won’t have any edge.
Other than running riot over nine-man Qatar, Canada has looked as advertised, decent defensively and decent in transition. But none of Canada’s four opponents have had Morocco’s skill at either end. Canada handled South Africa easily enough but won’t do the same against the reigning AFCON champs from North Africa. If Canada does push forward on the counter as preferred, that will only expose the backline to Morocco’s own deadly counter.
15. Egypt
Egypt fought well to get by Australia on penalties Friday, but six goals in four games are not enough offense to trouble Argentina in the next round. Egypt may try to muck up the game, but Argentina cruised through the morass of CONMEBOL qualifying, so any physical style won’t faze the defending champs.
The Pharaohs have allowed the third-most shots of the remaining 16 teams, while taking the third-worst shots themselves. That’s a recipe for disaster against Argentina.
16. Paraguay
Kudos to Paraguay for eliminating Germany in the Round of 32. The Germans never figured out how to break down Paraguay’s low block, for both a lack of top-end talent and strategy. Unfortunately for Paraguay, France has both. Michael Olise leads the tournament with 11 through-balls, and he’ll find plenty of France runners, similar to how the U.S. torched Paraguay in the opener.
Maybe Paraguay finds cracks in France’s defense for a goal, but Paraguay’s defense has allowed 81 shots, 22 more than any other remaining team. France will easily hang multiple goals with the brilliance of Mbappé and Dembélé and Barcola.
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