Who will USA play next? Updated scenarios for USMNT’s Round of 32 opponent from third-place pool

Who will USA play next? Updated scenarios for USMNT’s Round of 32 opponent from third-place pool originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The United States have already confirmed not only a place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket, but indeed their place, having secured the top spot in Group D heading into the final round of group stage games.

While the USMNT is still yet to play Turkey, a game which will take place on Thursday, the result of that game has zero competitive bearing on their eventual group finish or their knockout stage place.

However, what has yet to be determined is their opponent, not only in the short-term to begin knockout stage play in the Round of 32, but also down the road in the bracket should they survive to reach the later rounds.

The Sporting News brings you every viable scenario for the USMNT in the World Cup knockout bracket, including who they could face and what needs to happen for them to reach that point.

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Who will USA play in the Round of 32?

The USMNT’s first opponent for the World Cup knockout stage is not yet guaranteed, and will not be 100% officially confirmed until the third-place qualifying table is set in stone and we know what groups the third-place qualifiers come from.

However, it’s a virtual certainty that the U.S. will play Bosnia & Herzegovina in the Round of 32, as they defeated Qatar in their Group B finale to secure a third-place qualifying spot. 

Of the 330 potential combinations of third-place qualifiers, one of these would have seen the United States play someone other than the Group B qualifier, but that row in the matrix has now been eliminated after South Africa defeated South Korea, meaning Group A is likely to get a third-place qualifier, which that line item would not have included.

The only thing left now for the U.S. to do for their match against Bosnia & Herzegovina to be confirmed is to wait for the rest of the third-place table to play out until the Dragons are confirmed through to the Round of 32. In the very, very, very unlikely chance that they fall out of the qualifying places, then the only other group the United States could face a third-place qualifier from at this point is Group I, of which Senegal and Iraq are vying for a third-place spot.

USMNT World Cup bracket scenarios

The U.S. has already guaranteed its exact place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup knockout bracket, and as explained above, it’s 99.99% sure who their Round of 32 opponent will be as well.

Therefore, this section is for those who like to look ahead in the bracket a bit and see what possibilities lie ahead. For those who prefer to take the tournament one game at a time, look away.

WORLD CUP GROUP STANDINGS:

Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F
Group G | Group H | Group I | Group J | Group K | Group L

Who could the United States play in the Round of 16?

This is a bit easier to figure out, because in all likelihood, the Round of 16 opponent for the United States will be the winner of Group G, who will surely be favored to beat their third-place qualifier in the Round of 32 unless some truly wacky things take place.

Egypt are leading Group G heading into the final day thanks to their four points, with group favorites Belgium having drawn each of their first two matches. But Mohamed Salah and company have the tougher final matchup against Iran, while Belgium take on 82nd-ranked New Zealand.

Egypt only need to draw with Iran to win the group, as long as Belgium do not pass them on goal differential with a three-goal victory over New Zealand. Belgium, meanwhile, need to beat New Zealand, and either have Egypt lose, or see Egypt draw with Iran and they themselves generate enough offense to pass on goal differential.

Even Iran can still win the group, if they beat Egypt by more than Belgium beat New Zealand.

Whoever comes out of that group, their most likely opponent is a third-place qualifier is a team from Group A, which could be either the Czech Republic, South Korea, or South Africa. They also could end up playing a qualifier from Group H, which may be Uruguay, Cape Verde, or Saudi Arabia.

Who could the United States play in the World Cup quarterfinals?

If things break their way and the 2026 World Cup co-hosts reach all the way to the quarterfinals, they would be thrilled with the result regardless of who they match up against.

The quarterfinals, understandably, is where things could get truly daunting for the USMNT, as their most likely quarterfinal opponent is…gulp…Spain. This is because te other Round of 16 matchup in their bracket pod is likely to feature the winner of Group H (Spain’s group), matched up against three group runners-up.

However, there are potential pitfalls here for Spain that could lead to an upset, and thus some upheaval in the bracket. One of those three group runners-up in their pod is that of Group K, which could be Uruguay or Portugal, two teams capable of springing an upset of this caliber (even if they have struggled through two matches thus far).

USA rooting guide for World Cup bracket

Here are the matches most influential to the USMNT’s knockout round pathway that fans can concentrate on to know exactly where the U.S. will fall in the bracket.

Egypt vs. Iraq

• Date: Friday, June 26
• Time (ET): 11 p.m.

If Egypt win this match, or even if they draw, they are very likely to be the potential Round of 16 opponent for the United States. However, if they lose, or if they draw and Belgium pummels New Zealand, then the Europeans will take that spot in the USA’s knockout pod.

USA World Cup schedule 2026

DateRoundTime (ET)OpponentLocationFri, Jun. 12Group D9 p.m.ParaguaySoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)Fri, Jun. 19Group D3 p.m.AustraliaLumen Field (Seattle, WA)Thu, Jun. 25Group D10 p.m.TurkeySoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)Wed., July 1Round of 328 p.m.TBDLevi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)Mon., July 6Round of 168 p.m.TBD if USA advancesLumen Field (Seattle, WA)Fri., July 10Quarterfinals3 p.m.TBD if USA advancesSoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)Tues., July 14Semifinals3 p.m.TBD if USA advancesAT&T Stadium (Dallas, TX)Sun., July 19Final3 p.m.TBD if USA advancesMetlife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)