Which team has the easiest path to the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft? originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The 2027 NFL Draft cycle has begun, and it is shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated classes in some time.
Every year, hope springs eternal, and the quarterback class is seen as the saving grace for a quarter of the league. It’ll be a fun crop, but the 2027 class doesn’t need several signal callers to live up to the hype.
Between Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and South Carolina edge rusher Dylan Stewart, Texas target Cam Coleman and Notre Dame corner Leonard Moore, there are blue-chip prospects bound to make the top 10 more valuable years past.
Thus, controlling the draft is paramount, allowing teams to land their franchise quarterback, add a fortune-changing piece to the supporting cast, or recoup ridiculous amounts of draft capital. As the offseason nears its conclusion, four teams stand out as favorites for the No. 1 pick.
Ranking the most likely teams to draft first in 2027
1. New York Jets
Things, relatively speaking, are going well in Jets Land. Three first-round picks have added competence and upside to a roster in desperate need of high-level talent, and the return of Geno Smith has paved a path to being “fun bad” instead of “unwatchable crime against football.”
It’s a start.
New York will likely be better than last season, but the bottom is always liable to fall out from under East Rutherford. The No. 1 pick is still in play, and the Jets are better prepared than anyone else to capitalize.
The Jets also have the Indianapolis Colts‘ first-round pick, which is made more lucrative by the their projected turmoil under center. With the best of Green Bay and Dallas’ first-round selections, too, no team can offer what New York can if another team has the worst record in January. That should give fans hope that even if things go wrong this fall, the front office can find the quarterback of the future.
2. Cleveland Browns
Like the Jets, Cleveland’s draft capital is more important than the success of the upcoming campaign. With perhaps the worst quarterback room in the league, nobody will be surprised when the Browns are competing for the top pick late in the year. Throw in a Myles Garrett-sized hole and the odds are stacked even further against Cleveland.
That aforementioned draft capital could be critical if the Browns find themselves in a bidding war against New York. While the Jets have an extra first-round pick, finishing with a worse regular-season record could open a window to pairing, say, the second pick with the Los Angeles Rams‘ selection and future capital to move up to No. 1. If New York isn’t in range for a blue-chip prospect, the Browns could be in pole position for a passer.
Of course, it’s too early to tell whether the Browns will be as bad as we expect. But down an All-World edge rusher and with less talent than their cellar-bound counterparts, they are a clear contender for the No. 1 pick.
3. Arizona Cardinals
There are a handful of teams in the NFC that could stumble to the finish line, but the early favorite for the 16th seed in the conference plays in Glendale.
The good news for the Arizona faithful is that Jacoby Brissett’s holdout could increase playing time for rookie Carson Beck, rolling the dice in the first year of Mike LaFleur’s tenure. If Beck exceeds expectations, great, Arizona found a quality quarterback at a discount. If not, the Cardinals could be in top-pick conversations by the trade deadline in pursuit of LaFleur’s franchise quarterback.
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They don’t have the extra draft capital, but Arizona’s offensive situation could end the season before it ever truly begins. There’s a sneaky amount of talent on this roster, but we don’t have to look far to find the last directionless team that took a running back in the top 10 before things went sideways.
The Cardinals have the NFC’s best chance at landing the first pick. That alone is enough to pin hopes on a prospective tank.
4. Miami Dolphins
It’s a new era in Miami, ushering in the Jeff Hafley era with a creative play at quarterback. Signing Malik Willis is a low-risk, high-reward solution that could provide as much surplus value as any contract in the league.
It also… might not work at all, leaving the Dolphins with little to speak of under center, out wide, or along the offensive line. Perhaps the biggest difference between Miami and Arizona is that the former has to play the Jets twice, rather than the titans jostling for positioning atop the NFC West.
The Dolphins can easily play themselves past their rivals, especially with Hafley’s scheme weaponizing the versatile talent across Miami’s defense. The unit underperformed last season, but Jordyn Brooks, Chris Johnson, and a strong defensive line are good places to start when looking for year-to-year improvements.
Ultimately, the Dolphins are expected to pick in the top 10, and their uncertainty under center makes them a candidate to be the worst team in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising if they landed the fanbase’s favorite passing prospect for the second time this decade.
