What will Houston Texans do at NFL trade deadline? Decision is more complex than it seems.

It happens every year. The NFL’s trade deadline comes around and teams are forced to confront a major question at the midpoint of their season. 

Do they sacrifice the future for immediate help in hopes of competing for a Super Bowl? Do they start over and sell off assets as they plan for the future? Or do they stay put? 

That’s where the Houston Texans sit one week before the Nov. 10 trade deadline as general manager Nick Caserio confronts those questions. Since coach DeMeco Ryans arrived nearly four years ago, Caserio and the Texans have taken a measured approach to the trade deadline. 

They haven’t quite been buyers and they definitely haven’t been sellers. They’ve mostly stayed quiet during this crucial part of the season, though it hasn’t always been for a lack of trying. Last season, the Texans called the Jets about running back Breece Hall, but felt the asking price  – a third-round pick – was too high. 

This year will more than likely be more of the same. 

Texans Insider with Jonathan M. Alexander

Sign up for an in-depth newsletter with Houston Texans news, features and predictions.

The Texans are 2-5 heading into their Week 9 game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. 

There are certainly areas the Texans could upgrade that could help improve their chance at making the playoffs. 

But their five losses in seven games make it a complex decision. 

The Texans aren’t quite bad enough this year to start selling assets, but they also aren’t good enough to become buyers, either. 

Three more losses would almost surely knock them out of the playoffs. Two losses would put them on the brink. And the more losses the Texans have, the more valuable their draft picks will become. 

Caserio said at his off-week press conference that they would be open to a deal – whatever that may look like. 

“If it makes sense, great,” Caserio said. “If not, so… we’ve had conversations. We’ve talked to most of the league here.”

TEXANS AT CHARGERS

When: 3:05 p.m. Sunday
Where: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, Calif.
TV: CBS
Radio: 95.7 FM, 610 AM, 101.1 FM (Spanish)

Caserio already made a major move last month when he traded a second-round pick and a seventh for Marvin Harrison Jr. and a sixth-round pick, which was significant draft capital Houston relinquished. 

The Texans’ current 2027 picks include a first-, a third-, a fourth-, two sixths and a seventh-round pick. 

“I don’t think anybody’s really worried about the draft right now,” Caserio said when asked about the second-round pick. “There are a lot of ways that you can recoup picks at some point along the way, whether it’s this year or whether it’s in the offseason. I don’t think anybody’s really too worried about not having that pick. If we end up having that pick somewhere along the line, great. If we don’t, then there’s other mechanisms we can look to fill the team.” 

But the question the Texans must answer: Is it worth it when the chances of not making the playoffs greatly outweigh the chances of the Texans making it? 

As it stands today, the Texans have a 24% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL’s probability meter. 

Soon, the bill will come due on five of the Texans’ top players. C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Kamari Lassiter, Danielle Hunter, and Calen Bullock all have contracts that expire after the 2027 season, and are looking for extensions. 

Sure, the salary cap will increase by then, but the Texans also must prepare for the reality that one or two of those players won’t return for 2028. Stroud’s inevitable monster contract extension will take up a huge portion of the Texans’ salary cap in future years.

And keeping their picks in an ambiguous year is the most financially responsible decision the Texans could make considering they’re already in such a deep hole. 

Caserio seemed to hint at that last week when he was asked whether this roster was constructed for success. 

“The team is what the team is,” he said. “We’re not going to see significant change relative to personnel ’til the offseason. We’ll go back and look at part of our responsibility, look at some of the things we did, some of the decisions we made, what could we have done a little bit differently.”

In fact, what makes more sense is the Texans trading one of the five offensive tackles they have on the 53-man roster. Only three are active on gameday, and with Braden Smith finally healthy, that means the Texans will have two healthy inactive tackles. 

Offensive tackles often fetch decent prices, even the ones that don’t play often. 

Two years ago, the Texans received a conditional seventh-round pick from the Chargers for Austin Deculus, who spent most of his time on Houston’s practice squad. One year ago, the Texans received a sixth-round pick for Cam Robinson and a seventh. 

Last offseason, the Texans received a fifth-round pick from the Browns for Tytus Howard. And most recently, the Texans traded a seventh-round pick to the Cowboys for Nate Thomas, who has yet to play in a game this season.

What the Texans do over the next week will give insight into how the Texans view the core of this team. 

Do they trade for another player and essentially go all in on this season, or do they stay patient and hope for the best this year while maintaining some semblance for the future? 

The latter seems to make the most sense. 

Subscribe

There’s more to Houston with the Chronicle. Subscribe today for just 25¢.

This article originally published at What will Houston Texans do at NFL trade deadline? Decision is more complex than it seems..