What To Expect From Joe Musgrove in 2027

Veteran starting pitcher Joe Musgrove made his long-awaited return to the San Diego Padres, closing out Game One of the NL Wild Card series after a surprise addition to the postseason roster. He pitched another two innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in Game 4 of the NLDS. After some command issues in his first appearance, Musgrove settled in and pitched three scoreless innings for the Friars. It took a long time for him to even get there.

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Oct 7, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) pitches during the eighth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers in game four of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images

Musgrove was expected to be a major player in the San Diego rotation for 2026. With plenty of holes in the Padres’ starting pitching group, the right-hander was a big factor for the Friars. He tore the UCL in his right elbow during the Padres’ 2024 postseason run. That injury required Musgrove to undergo Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss a full season before returning in 2026 Spring Training. However, after making just one start in Cactus League, he was placed on the injured list and didn’t return until October.

Because of that, Musgrove ended up missing two full seasons after his surgery. That wasn’t the plan. San Diego hoped for the right-hander to factor into their plans for 2026. Instead, he missed the full season. Musgrove finally faced hitters in late July but faced several setbacks before returning to the club in the playoffs. During his rehab assignment, Musgrove pitched to a 4.60 ERA between Single-A and Triple-A.

The biggest question is how many innings Musgrove can go. In his last two seasons (2023-24) in Major League Baseball, the right-hander has thrown a total of 197 innings (97 1/3 IP in ’23 and 99 2/3 IP in ’24). In that time, Musgrove posted a 3.47 ERA in 36 starts. But the veteran hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in over four years. Musgrove pitched 181 innings in 2022 and 181 1/3 innings in 2021. There’s almost no way he’ll be able to replicate that level of production, but if Musgrove can at least cover 120-plus innings for San Diego, it’ll be a win for the club.

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Sep 29, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) runs to the mound during the ninth inning against the Chicago Cubs during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

In 2022, Musgrove’s best pitch by far was his four-seamer (+10 Pitch Run Value). He mixed that in with a decent slider and an above-average cutter (+6 PRV). That changed drastically in 2023, when injuries forced him to stop using his fastball as much. Musgrove instead opted to increase his curveball usage from 19 percent in ’22 to 24 percent in ’23. That stayed mostly the same in 2024, but Musgrove swapped his slider for a sweeper. His PRV has consistently gone down from 14 (2022) to 11 (2023) to 0 (2024).

Another question is how badly Musgrove will be relied on in the Padres’ rotation. Currently, San Diego only has JP Sears and Randy Vásquez returning to the club. Nick Pivetta is a virtual lock with a $14 million club option. Ace Michael King remains a big question mark with a $28 million player option. King is likely to decline that option to pursue free agency, but he could decide to stay with the Friars, with this year’s offseason being quite volatile due to the impending lockout.

If San Diego signs a starting pitcher or two, that will take plenty of pressure off of Musgrove to perform. The veteran right-hander would be much better off as a back-end option for the Friars than a veritable frontline starter. That being said, Musgrove could surely prove himself in Spring Training. The true concern is injury. Musgrove has had his fair share of injuries in the last few years. Hopefully, he’ll be available for San Diego to count on. That being said, it’s best not to expect too much from Musgrove. Lower expectations would certainly make for less disappointment should Musgrove not perform perfectly in 2027.

Main Photo Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images