Week 3 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Cowboys and Ravens set for a great matchup in Brazil

The NFL is investing a lot into its international series, which is clear from this week’s matchup in Brazil.

The league’s most marketable team, the Dallas Cowboys, gets to face a Baltimore Ravens team that has Super Bowl hopes and one of the most marketable players in Lamar Jackson. It’s a great matchup for Rio de Janeiro. The NFL booked some top-tier matchups for other countries this season, and this might be the best of the group.

The fear is the turf at Maracanã Stadium. There was enough concern that the NFL’s field director commented on it this week to ESPN and said the league isn’t concerned. That doesn’t mean it will be a perfect surface or close to it. There has been a lot of rain in Rio de Janeiro over the past six weeks and soccer players have complained about the turf. For two fast offenses, that could be a big factor.

The Cowboys defense could use the help. Dallas looked better in Week 2 but still allowed 389 yards even though Washington lost Jayden Daniels on the final play of the first half. The offense will be good, though maybe not quite as good if the turf in Brazil is poor. It’s the defense Dallas needs to worry about.

There is some concern about the Ravens’ offense if receiver Zay Flowers can’t play through a hamstring injury, and Baltimore will surely be careful if the turf is bad. But Jackson will make it work against a Dallas defense that is still suspect. The Cowboys’ defensive issues is the main reason why Ravens -3.5 is the pick. Hopefully the conditions in Brazil don’t bother what looks like a phenomenal matchup on Sunday.

<

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) celebrates a touchdown with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb last week. (Amanda McCoy/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 3 of the NFL season:

It’s not fun to pick the Packers right now. They’re beat up on offense, especially the offensive line. That’s a reason this line moved down from Packers -7.5. But it’s not like the Falcons are good. Sure, getting Michael Penix Jr. back helps. But Penix hasn’t been great in his career and he’s playing his first game action since Nov. 16, 2025. It’s hard to have a lot of trust in him or the Falcons.

It’s not too surprising the Jaguars faded in the second half last week at Denver. Playing in altitude early in the season is not easy. The Jaguars are a good team. Are the Patriots? Probably, but staying in their offensive funk last week against the Steelers wasn’t promising. The Jaguars look like the better team.

Teams using their backup quarterback often get a short-term bump. And while Jameis Winston has his flaws and didn’t look good on Monday night, he is one of the NFL’s more capable backups. While the Titans did play well against the Eagles last week, I’m not convinced they’ve turned a corner.
(-11.5) over Dolphins

If you’ve followed these picks over the years, you haven’t seen many double-digit road favorites being the pick. Teams facing the 2026 Dolphins might be an exception. The Dolphins haven’t shown anything yet that would make anyone believe they are going to be competitive in many games this season. Maybe the Dolphins get a jolt in their home opener, but it’s not a team that’s showing any signs of life yet.
(-3.5) over Steelers

Speaking of teams that haven’t shown anything yet, the Steelers are 1-1 and are lucky they played the Falcons in Week 1. There are two teams that have just one offensive touchdown this season: Pittsburgh and Atlanta. The Falcons have the excuse that they were down to their third and then fourth-string quarterbacks. The Steelers have used mostly their preferred lineup. They just haven’t been very good. The Bengals offense hasn’t heated up yet, but it will, and the defense looks greatly improved. Dexter Lawrence II is a fun dark horse NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate.

The last time we saw this matchup in Landover, Md., the Seahawks blew out the Commanders 38-14 last season. And Jayden Daniels played most of that game before dislocating his elbow. Daniels is probably going to miss this week after dislocating his elbow again, and the Seahawks defense looks like it might be even better than last season. So why pick a Marcus Mariota-led Commanders team to cover? Ugly dogs cover all the time in the NFL, and you won’t know many people picking Washington here.
(+7) over Bills

If there are any signs of life in the Chargers this season, we’ll see it Sunday. They’ve been awful. But this line first opened at Bills -3 and jumped up four points the last couple weeks. It’s justified based on how both teams have looked so far. But it is also a reminder that the full touchdown is a lot. The Chargers are entering an excruciating part of their schedule and have to know that it’s now or never if they’re going to save their season.

Maybe what we saw from Deshaun Watson last week was a sign that he’ll be just fine as Browns quarterback. It seems more like the Buccaneers defense was that bad in the second half. If Watson does it again, hats off to him. The Panthers have gotten off to a hot start, and part of that is playing the Bears and Falcons defense. But don’t forget how Jacksonville torched the Browns’ defense in Week 1. Bryce Young might keep his good start going.
(-2.5) over Colts

I’m 0-2 in trusting Houston this season, but undeterred. Houston will play well this season. The defense was very good last week, but the offense wasn’t. That should change against a Colts defense that has given up 1,029 yards (!!!) in two games.
(+6.5) over Lions

The Jets haven’t been bad this season. They just couldn’t finish last week against the Packers. And the Lions defense looks like it might keep every opponent in the game. Even if the Lions look good here, the defense allowing a backdoor cover will stay in play.

Get ready to handle the blitz, Buccaneers. The Vikings and their defensive coordinator Brian Flores are blitzing on over 80% of opponents’ dropbacks so far this season. And it’s working. But this is just the time when a 2-0 Vikings team is favored on the road against an 0-2 Buccaneers team and it looks so easy to pick Minnesota. The Buccaneers are the more desperate team and got embarrassed last week losing to the Browns, and unless you believe they have given up on Todd Bowles already, that’s generally the type of team worth backing.

Maybe the Chargers are simply putrid. But don’t forget that in Week 1, the Cardinals were a 9.5-point underdog against the Chargers and went on the road and won. It’s doubtful that they’re beating the 49ers straight up, but as long as they’re not facing the Seahawks defense they should be able to move the ball.

This point spread might be too little respect for the Saints, or a lot for the Raiders. The Saints are a missed two-point conversion away from beating the Lions and Ravens on the road to start the season. They might be good. The Raiders are much improved too. Picking the Saints isn’t necessarily a fade of the Raiders, but acknowledging how impressive New Orleans‘ start has been.
(-2.5) over Broncos

The Broncos have played two good quarters out of eight. The Rams were a no-show in Week 1, but as they were pounding the Giants it sure looked like we can excuse that performance to a weird Australia trip and weirder travel plan for it. Part of that travel plan was presumably to not be impacted through September by jet lag, and that might have worked. Historically, the Broncos are good at home in September and they’re not a bad team. But maybe what we saw Monday night was the first sign of the Rams being the team they were hyped up to be before the season.

It’s hard to know if Caleb Williams will play. If he does then Bears +4.5 is an easy play. But the Bears could be down to Case Keenum against a talented Eagles defense. And if Williams does play, will he be fully mobile with his hamstring injury? The safe play is to take the Eagles, though they have not been impressive despite a 2-0 start.