UFC Vegas 118 main card preview: Belal Muhammad seeks to avoid his third straight loss

While the focus of the UFC is on next weekend’s UFC Freedom 250 card taking place at the White House, there’s some business to take care of in Las Vegas, and the UFC returns to its home. 

The UFC is back at the Apex for UFC Vegas 118, Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim. The card actually has some solid depth for an Apex Fight Night card and could bring major swings in certain divisions. 

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Here are the predictions and breakdowns for the main card of UFC Vegas 118. 

Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight) 

Belal Muhammad enters this weekend on a two-fight skid, but the two opponents were Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry, two of the best at 170 pounds. The matchup against Gabriel Bonfim suggests that Muhammad’s days as a true contender are likely over, given the significant drop in competition level. 

Gabriel Bonfim is riding a five-fight win streak and now leaps in competition level as he fights his first-ever former champion. Bonfim can cause problems for Muhammad stylistically, being dangerous as both a striker and a grappler, but Bonfim will likely want to keep the fight standing. 

Bonfim also has great takedown defense, posting a 76% takedown defense rate for his career. Belal Muhammad has struggled against opponents he can’t take down. If Bonfim’s takedown defense holds up, then the struggles for Muhammad will continue on Saturday night.

Final Prediction – Gabriel Bonfim via Unanimous Decision

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Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight)

Brendan Allen is coming off the biggest win of his career, against a former top-five opponent in Reiner De Ridder, and what does he get for his next fight? A co-main event against unranked Edmen Shahbazyan in the UFC Apex, where no one watches. 

Truly one of the weirder matchmaking situations in recent memory, but as far as the fight itself, it’s a mismatch. Brenden Allen is an elite grappler. Allen has 14 career wins via submission, and Edmen Shahbazyan has historically struggled against high-level grapplers. 

Brenden Allen will likely be able to control Shahbazyan on the mat. Shahbazyan has only been submitted once, but his struggles against grapplers stem mainly from his inability to get back to his feet. 

Final Prediction – Brenden Allen via Unanimous Decision

Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan (Lightweight)

Fares Ziam is one of the most exciting strikers in the lightweight division. Ziam uses his long frame to pick his opponents apart from the outside. Luckily for UFC fans who don’t enjoy grappling, Tom Nolan is also a very fun striker. 

Nolan is newer in the UFC, now 4-1 since joining in 2024. Now he faces his toughest test yet, a ranked lightweight who is also a phenomenal striker, and will have the reach advantage over Nolan. 

Ziam has a great track record against strikers, and that won’t stop here. This fight should be non-stop action from the first bell. 

Final Prediction – Fares Ziam via 2nd round KO

Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna (Bantamweight)

Bryce Mitchell will make his second walk to the octagon since moving down to the Bantamweight division. Mitchell comes in with much more UFC experience and finds himself in the classic “veteran vs prospect” type of matchup.

The prospect Mitchell will face is undefeated Santiago Luna. Luna takes this fight on short notice after Victor Henry had to pull out. With a Greco-Roman Wrestling background, Luna should play into Bryce Mitchell’s game. Mitchell is always more comfortable on the ground with his grappling, hunting for submissions. 

Luna has only one UFC fight under his belt and eight total pro MMA fights, and while he’s undefeated, he’s raw and lacks experience. 

Final Prediction – Bryce Mitchell via 3rd round Submission

Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa (Light Heavyweight)

Iwo Baraniewski made his UFC debut earlier this year and knocked out Austen Lane in 28 seconds. Junior Tafa is taking this fight on roughly two weeks’ notice. To make this prediction as simple as possible, Baraniewski has shown more potential in the UFC in his one fight than Tafa has in his whole UFC career.

Final Prediction – Iwo Baraniewski via Round one TKO