The Numbers Game: Can Tuchel shore up England’s defence against Czechia?

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

Both Czechia and England stumbled at the first Nations League hurdle, losing their games to Croatia and Spain, respectively.

England played out a five-goal thriller with Spain but ended up on the wrong side of the result after throwing away a lead to eventually lose 3-2.

As for Czechia, they were undone by Luka Modric, who rolled back the years to help Croatia to a 2-1 victory.

That leaves both nations on zero points in Group A3, but neither will want to still be empty-handed with a third of their group games gone.

So, who will come out on top at Fortuna Arena? Here, using Opta data, we look at the key talking points ahead of Tuesday’s clash.

— England (@England) September 28, 2026

Both teams will already feel this is a must-win fixture given the thick-and-fast nature of the Nations League campaign, and it is England who are expected to come out on top.

England have lost just one of their last nine meetings with Czechia in all competitions (W6 D2).

However, that loss came on their last visit to the nation back in October 2019 (2-1).

They are given a 68.8% chance of victory when they head to Prague, with a further 18.7% chance of a draw.

Only three teams have won consecutive home matches against England this century: Spain (a run of three), France and Sweden (both two).

Czechia will be looking to add their names to that list, but they are given just a 12.4% chance of coming away with all three points.

Will Tuchel fix defensive frailties?

England went through a rollercoaster of emotions at Wembley; a Marc Guehi error inside two minutes gave Lamine Yamal the opener, but Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane both scored to give the Three Lions a half-time lead.

Momentum then swung on a missed Kane penalty, with Alex Baena – profiting from Nico O’Reilly’s slack pass – and Mikel Oyarzabal coming off the bench to secure all three points for Spain.

A lot has been made about England’s identity over this international break and how they can bring the best out of their players, especially defensively.

And it is at the back that Thomas Tuchel will be keen to shore things up, and soon.

That match was the first time England have made two errors leading to a goal in a competitive game since June 2019 against the Netherlands, also in the Nations League.

England have conceded 13 goals in their last six games, almost double the amount they had in their first 17 under Tuchel (seven).

In fact, they have conceded at least three goals in their last two outings, having also beaten France 6-4 to secure third place at the World Cup, last doing so in three in a row in February 1927.

It is a stark contrast to early in Tuchel’s reign when England went through qualifying for the summer’s tournament without conceding a single goal.

Their recent run means that England have lost two of their last three matches in all competitions – also the heartbreaking 2-1 defeat to Argentina in the World Cup semi-final – as many as in their previous 23 combined.

They have not lost consecutive games since between June and September 2022, also in the Nations League against Hungary and Italy.

One good thing for England is that at the other end, they remain strong, with Jude Bellingham picking up where he left off at the World Cup.

While he did not score against Spain, he did set up Gordon’s opener before winning the penalty in the second half.

Bellingham has been involved in nine goals in his last nine international appearances (seven goals, two assists), more than any other England player since the start of the World Cup.

As for Gordon, he has scored in consecutive appearances for the Three Lions for the first time, having netted against Argentina and Spain.

In midfield, though they are without Declan Rice, Elliot Anderson is more than capable of holding down the fort.

He won possession more times than any other player in England’s defeat to Spain (13). Since his international debut in September 2025, Anderson has won possession 125 times in 18 matches; no other England player has done so more than 50 times in this period.

Czechia look to strengthen home fortress again

Czechia’s 2-1 defeat to Croatia last time out ended a 19-game unbeaten home run (W14 D5).

Modric scored the opening goal, and though Adam Karabec swiftly equalised, Czechia conceded again to substitute Marco Pasalic.

They have not lost consecutive home matches in June 2016, but given Czechia’s recent form, Santi Denia may have some worries.

Czechia have lost their last two games in all competitions, last losing more consecutively between June and September 2022 (four).

They endured a difficult World Cup campaign, in which they were knocked out in the groups after finishing bottom with only a single point to their name (D1 L2).

Czechia struggled to find their rhythm against Croatia, managing only five shots worth 0.9 expected goals (xG), with only two of those hitting the target.

In addition to that, they only managed eight touches in the opposition box, while Czechia also got caught offside six times, a figure Denia will know they need to cut down if they want to cause England some real problems.

Karabec averages a goal or assist every 89 minutes for Czechia (three goals, one assist in 355 minutes).

He netted their sole goal in the defeat last time out.

Karabec was one of just two Czechia players to have a shot on target in that match, while his only touch in the opposition box was what led to his goal.

Kane has netted four goals in six Nations League appearances since the start of the 2024-25 edition.

That is more than he scored across the first three editions of the competition he played in (three in 18 games – 2018-19, 2020-21, 2022-23).

Kane has scored 17 goals in 19 appearances for England under Tuchel. Since the German first took charge in March 2025, only Erling Haaland (26), Kylian Mbappe (19) and Oyarzabal (18) have scored more goals in all competitions for European nations.

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