The new suspension formula has a few more wrinkles to keep in mind

The NFL and NFL Players Association announced this week, out of the blue, a new procedure for imposing automatic suspensions on players who commit three violations of one of five specific safety rules: hip-drop tackles, horse-collar tackles, launching, hits on defenseless players, and blindside blocks.

There’s a lot to process in this yellow-card style approach to stacking violations in advance of automatic consequences.

First, it’s important to remember that a suspension only happens when a player commits three violations of one of the five specific rules. In theory, a player could have two violations as to each rule and not be suspended.

Second, some have asked what happens when there’s a fourth violation. For each violation after the third, the player gets suspended for one game. And, because a player who has three violations in a given year carries two of them into the next season, a player who is suspended once will continue to be one infraction away from another suspension for the rest of the current season — and for all of the next season.

Third, the formula extends into the postseason. If the player gets his third violation in Week 18, he misses the first playoff game. If he gets his third violation in the wild-card round, he’ll be suspended for the divisional round (if his team wins). If his team loses in the playoff round when the third violation occurs, he’ll miss Week 1 of the next season.

Fourth, the new formula could have an unintended consequence as to one specific rule. For hip-drop tackles, horse-collar tackles, launching, and blindside blocks, the player has significant control over whether he commits a violation. For hits on a defenseless player (and, particularly, hits on a defenseless receiver), a violation can happen innocently. If the defenseless receiver dips his helmet into the vicinity of an otherwise permissible blow with the shoulder, a violation occurs.

This could prompt offenses to target a defensive player with two defenseless-player violations for a possible third violation. Already, he’ll be thinking about avoiding the head and neck area of a receiver. That alone could put him on his heels when it’s time to try to break up a completion. It also sets him up for a potential third violation that could get him suspended for a game if he makes one mistake.

If the receiver manages to get his helmet in range for a hit from the player with two strikes, the third strike could be engineered — even if the defensive player has otherwise done everything right.

It’s something to monitor as this new procedure unfolds. Smart coaches are always looking for any advantage they can find. Once they know a defensive player has two violations of the rule against hits to the head and neck area of a defenseless receiver, some will absolutely consider trying to set the defensive player up for a third.

Fifth, the new rule is a one-year experiment. Some one-year experiments become permanent rules. Others (like the 2019 misadventures with making pass interference calls and non-calls subject to replay review) become abject disasters.

Sixth, and finally, some have wondered whether the new rule is a reaction to the recent CTE study. That’s not the case; per a source with knowledge of the situation, the conversations and negotiations occurred over a period of roughly three months. The NFL and NFLPA knew about the CTE findings roughly one week before they were published. It’s a coincidence, and nothing more.

It’s a useful coincidence. As the NFLPA has said, the new CTE findings are a “call to action.” In this specific situation, the action preceded the call.