The Hot Read: The Buffalo Bills need to grow up

The Bills are still the Bills. In some ways that, makes them one of the NFL’s best teams. In other ways, it scares their fans to death.

This season was supposed to be one of transformation for Buffalo. Unfortunately for Bills Mafia, Sunday was a sign that the more things change, the more they stay the same. After a 3-0 start and entering a game in which they could have put an early kill shot into the New England Patriots, the Bills instead allowed their division rivals to not just win, but find their groove.

The Patriots had just 19 points on the season entering the Week 4 matchup; they scored 29 points against the Bills’ defense – a unit new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard was expected to make better. What has transpired has been a defense that ranks 30th in EPA per play, has allowed the second-most touchdown passes in the league, and the seventh-most points in the league. No one was expecting the Bills to be the best defense in the NFL, but to be statistically one of the worst is just more of the same that fans saw with Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich.

Offensively, Joe Brady went away from everything that worked in the first three weeks. The Bills had the third-highest EPA per play in 12 personnel in Weeks 1-3, yet they only ran nine such plays against the Patriots. James Cook was averaging over six yards per carry, but only ran the ball 12 times. Joe Brady even reverted back to eye-roll-worthy calls with a screen on 3rd-and-8 that was sniffed out and led to a punt. Dalton Kincaid was fourth in EPA per target among tight ends with at least 50 routes run entering Week 4 – he had two targets. Why the Bills diverted from everything that helped them start 3-0 was as concerning as it was familiar.

And while Brady and Leonard shoulder most of the blame, Josh Allen isn’t without fault. Despite all the aforementioned shortcomings, with just over a minute to play and all three timeouts still in his back pocket, Allen dodged a sack and launched a pass into double coverage to Josh Palmer, which was picked off by Craig Woodson. Allen could have taken off and got a modest gain, hit the check down, which was open to the left, or tried extending the play even longer to allow something to develop.

Yes, his defense didn’t play well, and yes he gave them the lead with less than five minutes left in the game on an absolute rope of a pass to Keon Coleman. All of that can be acknowledged while also saying that we are now in Year Nine of Allen’s career, and you can still set your watch to a postgame press conference where he looks distraught following an incredibly immature throw that he has no business trying. Think back to 2022 when he threw a pair of red zone interceptions agains the Vikings, the second of which came in overtime on a heavily contested throw when an underneath check down was wide open. Or Week 1 of the 2023 season agains the New York Jets that featured three picks in a loss to a Jets team that was led by Zach Wilson after Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury.

“Same s—it, same place, different day,” Allen said after that 2023 opener.

Now Sunday, when he had all the tools and time to get Buffalo at minimum into field goal range, and at maximum in the end zone to get to a 4-0 start. After the game, he once again took responsibility for a horrid decision that ultimately cost his team. And look, man. It’s great that he is willing to take responsibility for his mistakes. But at some point, he needs to be smarter in these moments. Every team loses, no one is saying the Bills need to go 17-0. But these are the types of losses that end up costing you. Last year, the Bills lost to the Falcons and Dolphins, two teams that fired their head coach and started anew in 2026. Had they won both of those games, they finish the year 14-3 and as the potential No. 1 seed in the AFC. So should they finish with a 12-5 record and a game out of the No. 1 seed this season, or should the Patriots battle back to win the AFC East, this game will certainly haunt them.

None of this is to say that all of a sudden Josh Allen is to blame for all the Bills’ issues – he’s not. Nor is it to take away from the once in a lifetime talent that he is or to downplay his greatness. It’s merely saying the Bills need to grow up. Joe Brady needs to show he isn’t Sean McDermott and make real changes to the defensive personnel. Jim Leonhard has to tighten up a unit that, outside of its front four, has been incredibly disappointing and easy to dissect. And Allen needs to be smarter and more mature with his decision-making in the game’s biggest moments. Because in order to finally get over that proverbial hump, he and his teammates have to show that the Bills aren’t still the Bills.

That was the cold open. This is the Hot Read.

Actions speak louder than words, and the Denver Broncos are telling you they don’t believe in their quarterback. Bo Nix finished the Broncos’ Week 4 loss to the San Francisco 49ers going 25-of-42 for 214 yards and a touchdown. Of those 25 completions, only six travelled further than five yards downfield. Additionally, Nix has an average depth of target of just 6.01 yards, and his average air yards to sticks is -3.48 yards, meaning his average throw is about 3.5 yards short of where the first down marker is – both of those numbers are the lowest in the NFL among 33 quarterbacks who have at least 50 dropbacks. His short passing percentage also sits at 77 percent, which leads the NFL.

These are not the tendencies of a team that believes they have the right guy under center who can make splash plays downfield. I referenced his six passes downfield, but seeing his Week 4 passing chart really puts into perspective how the Broncos play offense – scared.

Swing passes, screen passes, underneath quick passes – that’s what you do when you have little faith in your quarterback. And it’s hard to blame Sean Payton and offensive coordinator Davis Webb, because Nix hasn’t been good. He has a lower EPA per play than Jacoby Brissett, per Sumer Sports, and a lower success rate than Cam Ward. And I hate to say I told you so, only no, I actually love to say that – but I’ve said this about Nix since he entered the league. This is the type of play he put on tape at Auburn and Oregon. And while the underneath passes and screens helped open up the deep passing game a year ago, it hasn’t this season, as Nix is 21st in the league in EPA per play on deep passes. Teams are also realizing that if you pressure Nix, he crumbles, as he is 26th in pass success rate when facing pressure.

This is what Nix is – a middle of the pack quarterback at his absolute best, and a bottom-dweller starter at worst. The Broncos’ defense hasn’t been its elite self through four games either, and they need to be borderline perfect to win games when the offense is this bad. This iteration of the Broncos peaked last season and rode a magic carpet to the AFC Championship – they won’t come close to those heights again.

Where the hell did this come from? Over the last two weeks, the Falcons have erupted offensively, and they’ve done so largely on the ground. In Weeks 3 and 4, the Falcons lead the NFL in EPA per play, and their 0.28 EPA per rush is astoundingly higher than the second-place Colts, who put up a 0.1 mark. Their success rate of 58.2 percent is also nearly a full five percent higher than the Detroit Lions (53.8) and their 447 rushing yards. On top of that, they are also first in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and yards after contact.

This corresponds with the return of Michael Penix, who has played very well in his own right. He’s averaging 10.6 yards per attempt with four touchdowns in two games. Turns out that your offense can be pretty good when Cooper Rush and Jack Strand aren’t your quarterbacks. Who would have guessed? And after a dreadful 0-2 start, the Falcons are all of a sudden the hottest offense in the NFL, and their Week 5 Sunday night matchup with the Baltimore Ravens is all of a sudden very intriguing.

Coming into the year, many proclaimed the Houston Texans’ defense to be the best in football, and there was certainly an easy argument to make. The were second in defensive EPA per play last season and second in success rate, as well. This season? A very different story.

Through four games, the Texans are 24th in defensive EPA per play, and they are allowing the third-most passing yards in the league. It’s not just the counting stats that show the obvious fall off from this unit over the last year, it’s their inability to close games. C.J. Stroud and the offense gave the Texans the lead with just over two minutes remaining, They held up their end of the bargain and then some. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns, both of which were thrown to a returning Nico Collins. The defense answered that by allowing the Cowboys to drive 73 yards in 11 plays which ended with CeeDee Lamb catching his 17th pass of the day in the end zone.

Houston has allowed 30+ points twice in the first four games – they allowed 30 points just once in 2025. What was once the backbone of the team has become the very thing that paralyzes them, and an 0-4 start has been the result.

The Kansas City Chiefs trailed the Las Vegas Raiders 19-17 with under four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Kenneth Walker rushed for a two-yard score to make it 24-19, but it’s the next play that completely swung the result. Raiders kick returner Dareke Young fumbled on the ensuing kickoff, which was recovered by Jack Cochrane of the Chiefs. On the first play of the ensuing drive, Walker scored once again to put the Chiefs up 30-19, and that would end up being what sealed the 30-23 win to get the Chiefs to 4-0.

The great Aaron Schatz and his 2026 Football Almanac projected the Bears to have the worst defense in the league this season. Through four games, though, the Bears are holding their own. They are currently tied for fourth in defensive EPA per play, as well as being in the upper half in defensive success rate. They’ve also only allowed four passing touchdowns (second-fewest in the league), 282.3 yards per game (third-fewest in the league) and 65 points (fourth-fewest in the league). To continue, since Week 2, the Bears have allowed just 28 points – the fewest in the NFL in that span. Credit Dennis Allen for the job he’s done with a defense that lost five of its key players from a year ago. Not only is he making it work, but he’s making it thrive.

Minnesota may be 4-0, but they are the John Daley standing across from Tiger Woods of 4-0 teams. The 49ers and Chiefs have been dominant offensively in their respective starts to the season, ranking second and fifth, respectively, in points scored and first and fourth in EPA per play while both of their defense rank in the top 12 in total yards allowed per game. The Vikings, while having the league’s top defense from an EPA and success rate perspective, have one of the league’s worst offenses. They are currently 31st in success rate, ahead of only the Dolphins. And some may point to Carson Wentz having to step in for a game and a half, but Kyler Murray hasn’t been good. In fact, from an efficiency standpoint, Wentz played better when starting. Of 41 quarterbacks to play at least 25 snaps this season, Murray is 38th in EPA per play and 39th in success rate while throwing just one touchdown to two interceptions. Their schedule is one where they can get to 10 wins from here based off what they’ve done so far, but if and when they get into the postseason, this isn’t a team that is a threat.

We were less than a quarter away from talking about the Rams being 1-3 after being hyped as the easy Super Bowl favorites entering the season. But down 20-10 late in the third quarter, head coach Sean McVay gathered the offense in a sideline huddle and rallied his troops to start playing like the Rams we expected to see. Two Kyren Williams fourth-quarter touchdowns led Los Angeles back to complete a 10-point comeback on the road in Philadelphia, sending both teams to 2-2. It’s been an inconsistent start for the Rams, as Matthew Stafford is currently second in the NFL with six interceptions thrown. But this is a team that recognizes the season is a marathon, not a sprint. They’ll get Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald back. And once those two are next to each other, we’ll truly see if this Rams team can live up to its ungodly potential.

I really believed the Jets would march into Solider Field and get a win over the Bears, and it’s not like that was a crazy thought. They had nearly defeated the Lions in Week 3, and should have beaten the Packers in Week 2. Instead what ensued was one of the most lopsided games in NFL history in terms of plays run and time of possession. The Bears ran 89 plays to just 32 for the Jets while holding the ball for 42:45. New York’s defense did get its first interception since 2024, but allowing the Bears to be on the field that long and completely control every aspect of the game is troubling. I fear this could be the game that sees the Jets revert back to the team we’ve come to know.

That said, they play the Browns in Week 5, so cut to next Tuesday where I look foolish after they give Cleveland its second loss.

• Week 1: Steelers will trade Joey Porter Jr: Correct

• Week 2: Rams will beat Broncos handedly: Incorrect

• Week 3: Lions will blowout Panthers: Incorrect

Week 1: Steelers will trade Joey Porter Jr: Correct

Week 2: Rams will beat Broncos handedly: Incorrect

Week 3: Lions will blowout Panthers: Incorrect

Alright, we’re going to take a break from predicting lopsided wins. Joey Porter Jr. did get dealt last week, though, so we’re on the board with our predictions. I’ll go back to the trade well and say that both Brian Thomas Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. are on new teams before the season ends. Both reached the end zone for the first time this season, but combined for just three catches in Week 4. On the year, the pair have combined for 14 catches and two touchdowns. Thomas has gone from 1,200 yards as a rookie to No. 4 option. Harrison has also found himself as the fourth option in the passing game behind Michael Wilson and Kendrick Bourne.

Both would be substantial targets in Baltimore, San Francisco, Las Vegas, and several other places. If neither of their current teams are going to use them, send them to squads who will.