Texas vs Texas State football: Longhorn betting lines, predictions for season opener

Texas football opens arguably its most anticipated season in two decades with a rare meeting against Hill Country neighbor Texas State at 2:30 p.m. Saturday in Royal-Memorial Stadium.

Why the optimism for the No. 5 Longhorns? Let’s count the ways. Arch Manning returns as one of the best and most ballyhooed quarterbacks in the country. Texas opened its thick wallet in the transfer portal to bolster holes on the offensive line and sign star playmakers such as receiver Cam Coleman and running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers. Sixth-year head coach Steve Sarkisian fired defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski and brought in the fiery Will Muschamp, who has been dissecting SEC defenses for 25 years.

Texas State has plenty of good vibes around the program, too. Located just 30 miles south of Austin in San Marcos, Texas State didn’t become an FBS program until 2012. But the Bobcats are already making a jump up to the Pac-12, albeit a watered-down version of the legendary conference following several years of conference realignment. The Bobcats look like immediate contenders in their league, considering that they welcome back a wealth of talent on the offensive side of the ball.

Here’s a full scouting report for the Texas Longhorns vs. the Texas State Bobcats. 

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Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) throws a pass during the Lone Star Showdown against Texas A&M at Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 28, 2025. (Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman)

TV/radio: ESPN, 1300, 98.1, 105.3 (Spanish)

Weather: Stay hydrated and bring a hat, since highs are expected to climb near 100 degrees with lots of humidity. A slight chance for some clouds and a stray shower could help out.

Moneyline: Texas +2400, Texas State -10000

Spread: Texas is favored by 29½ points.

Last meeting:  Texas 36, Texas State 0 (Sept. 20, 1930)

Most memorable meeting:Texas 36, Texas State 0 (1930). It’s hard to make many memories without many games. In fact, the lone meeting between the two largest universities in Central Texas was more like a glorified scrimmage that took place at the start of the season, according to accounts in the Austin American-Statesman. For what it’s worth, Ernie Koy Sr. and Bull Elkins led the Longhorns to an easy victory.

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Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson (8) throws a pass during football practice at UFCU Stadium on Saturday, August. 8, 2026 in San Marcos, Texas. (Aaron E. Martinez/Austin American-Statesman)

Last year: 7-6, beat Rice 41-10 in the Armed Forces Bowl

Players to watch:QBBrad Jackson, a 6-foot, 197-pound junior from San Antonio’s Reagan High School, earned all-conference honoree in the Sun Belt a year ago after throwing for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns while posting a 71.3 completion percentage that ranked fifth among qualified FBS-level quarterbacks. He also rushed for a school-record 17 touchdowns.

WRBeau Sparks, a shifty 5-11, 181-pound senior from El Paso, set a single-season school record with 84 catches and 1,200 yards last season. He also doubles as an elite punt returner who has taken two punts to the end zone in his career.

DLChancellor Owens, a 6-3, 296-pound senior, gives the Bobcats some muscle in the middle, which they’ll need against a big and physical Texas offensive line. Owens arrived in the offseason after limited playing time at Arizona, but he did have 78 total tackles with 12 tackles for a loss and 4 ½ sacks at Northwestern State across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

Central Texas connections: The Bobcats surprisingly don’t have many locals on the squad, but their 2026 recruiting class includes linebacker Darius Davis of San Marcos High School and receiver Xavier Warren of Georgetown High School. Both three-star recruits turned down Power Four offers to stay close to home.

Sure, Manning runs the show in his fourth season in the program and his second year as the starter. But the Longhorns reached into the portal for Brown and Smothers as well as two new starting offensive linemen in guard Laurence Seymore III and tackle Melvin Siani to improve the ground game. Texas ranked 90th in the nation with 4.1 yards per rush and struggled in the red zone. The Longhorns want to show off their revamped run game against a Texas State squad that gave up 164.8 yards rushing a game last season while playing in the Sun Belt. 

Texas State hired Will Windham from South Alabama as its new defensive coordinator after allowing 382.9 yards and 29 points a game. The Bobcats may hope for such numbers against a loaded Longhorns offense led by Manning and new receiver Cam Coleman, a 6-3, 204-pound portal arrival who hauled in 93 catches for 1,306 yards and 13 touchdowns over his first two collegiate seasons while playing for an anemic Auburn offense. Manning, Coleman and fellow wideout Ryan Wingo – who are both preseason finalists for the Biletnikoff Award, which goes out to the nation’s best receiver – will want to give the fans some early highlights.

Sparks and fellow wideout Chris Dawn Jr. will test a revamped Texas secondary that has several new faces in the starting lineup. Dawn had 1,007 yards on 82 receptions despite battling some injuries last season, and both receivers are on the Biletnikoff Award preseason watch list. Only 10 schools enter this season with at least two names on that list, and Texas State and Texas are two of them.

Texas State head coach GJ Kinne, a former quarterback who spent one season at Texas after a stellar prep career at Gilmer High School in East Texas, directs an offense with deep roots in the state of Texas. Kinne, who has a 23-16 record in three seasons with the Bobcats, prefers a power spread with wide line splits that tries to exploit natural gaps in the defense. Jackson garnered the most attention last season, but the Bobcats ran for 222.1 yards a game and averaged 5.2 yards a carry.

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Texas Longhorns defensive back Graceson Littleton (29) celebrates after making an interception for Texas in the fourth quarter of the Red River Rivalry, as the Sooners play the Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Oct. 11, 2025. (Sara Diggins/Austin American-Statesman)

Texas nickel back Graceson Littleton vs. Texas State receiver Chris Dawn Jr.

Sophomore Graceson Littleton earned All-SEC freshman honors last season, and he’ll be tested early by one of the most underrated slot receivers in the nation. The 5-9, 175-pound Dawn, a senior from Mesquite, already has 111 career receptions, and his ability to find open spots underneath the coverage keeps the chains moving for a potent Bobcat offense.

Danny Davis: Texas. There will be visible growing pains for the Longhorns on Saturday. That is what happens when you bring in nearly 50 newcomers and a new defensive coordinator. But Texas is better than Texas State, and that will clearly be reflected in the final score.

Cedric Golden: Texas 40, Texas State 17. It’s not perfect, but the Longhorns have few problems with the visiting Bobcats. Arch Manning plays only half the fourth quarter in a 40-17 win.

Thomas Jones: Texas 52, Texas State 20. Manning and the offense will be eager to show off their new firepower, but Texas State has enough offense to cause some problems and give the Texas defensive coaches some film-study fuel in the buildup to the Sept. 12 game against No. 1 Ohio State.