Texans 'long-shot' prediction could be end of C.J. Stroud's time in Houston

Texans ‘long-shot’ prediction could be end of C.J. Stroud’s time in Houston originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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The Houston Texans, heading into the 2026 NFL season, have a lot on the line with their quarterback C.J. Stroud. His struggles to end the 2025 season were brutal and have left his future somewhat uncertain.

But at least for now, he’s the Texans’ starting quarterback. Stroud has another chance to prove his 2023 rookie season wasn’t a fluke, and that the struggles of the past couple of years aren’t actually who he is. But what if he struggles again?

ESPN’s Dan Graziano shared a “long-shot” prediction that explores such a scenario and the fallout it would bring. Stroud flopping in 2026 could lead to a mid-season benching and likely the end of his Texans career as well.

C.J. Stroud gets ‘long-shot’ prediction that’d likely end his Texans’ career

“Long-shot outcome: Stroud totally flops in Year 4,” Graziano writes. “Either because of injury or ineffectiveness, he finishes the season on the bench as Davis Mills steps in to replace him.”

Such a result for the Texans and Stroud would be disastrous and could be a huge issue for the team amid their championship window with an elite defense.

But Graziano’s prediction for Stroud and the Texans didn’t stop at simply benching Stroud. The fallout from such a decision, which Stroud’s poor play could force, could be franchise-altering.

“Houston misses the playoffs and brings in someone else — either a draft pick or free agent — to compete with Stroud in camp in 2027 as the extension talks remain on hold,” Graziano writes.

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This outcome would effectively end Stroud’s time with the franchise. Another poor season, and the Texans might be ready to find a new quarterback.

His four-pick day against the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round has left a sour taste in the mouths of Texans fans, as his 2023 Rookie of the Year breakout seems so far removed from his current production and abilities.

But he was once such a good QB that there is maybe a chance he returns to form in 2026. It’s more likely he isn’t terrible for the Texans, but if he were to struggle mightily one more time, it could be the end of his time as the Texans’ starter.

While it wouldn’t be ideal, at least such a “long-shot” disaster season would come in a year with a stacked quarterback draft class. If there were ever a season to have a terrible year and not be burned by it in the long-term, it would be the 2026 season.

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