Premier League predictions: Maresca’s perfect record on the line in first Manchester derby

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its match predictions ahead of the latest weekend of the 2026-27 Premier League season, as the table starts to take shape. 

Arsenal’s come-from-behind victory over Chelsea last Sunday means there are only two teams with 100% records after three matchdays.

Manchester City are level with the Gunners on nine points, but with the Manchester derby next up, can Enzo Maresca’s men stay perfect? 

At the bottom, Coventry City and Fulham are the only teams still without a single point. The Sky Blues are also one of three goalless sides, along with Aston Villa and Tottenham. 

Matchday 4 will see matches spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday, following the midweek Champions League and EFL Cup action. 

Ahead of what should be another intriguing group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions. 

The weekend’s action kicks off at Anfield, with Liverpool riding high after putting together back-to-back wins across all competitions. 

Liverpool got their first Premier League win under Andoni Iraola against Ipswich Town, and after overseeing a 2-1 Champions League triumph over Atletico Madrid, he is expected to follow up with another victory over Fulham, who are still searching for their first point under Alvaro Arbeloa. 

A win for Iraola in his first Champions League fixture pic.twitter.com/HD0errF112

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) September 10, 2026

The Reds have only lost two of 33 previous home league games against Fulham (W23 D8), so it’s no surprise they’re given a 65.5% chance of victory on Saturday. 

Liverpool have drawn each of their last three Premier League games at Anfield, their longest winless streak at the stadium since December 2020 until March 2021 (D2 L6), and a stalemate occurred in 18.3% of the pre-match simulations. 

Only twice before have Fulham lost their opening four matches in a top-flight campaign, with both seasons resulting in relegation, and they’re given a 16.2% chance of getting their first win. 

This will be Arbeloa’s first Premier League game against Liverpool, for whom he played 66 games in the competition, but ex-Reds players have lost all five of their managerial games against them in the division.

Crystal Palace (51.1%) and Ipswich Town (25.3%) both have three points on the board ahead of their meeting at Selhurst Park. 

After starting 2026-27 with two defeats, Pierre Sage’s men got up and running with a 3-2 comeback win at Fulham. They could now win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since December 2025, but they must overcome a poor home record. 

Among ever-present Premier League sides, only Tottenham (seven) have accumulated fewer points at home than Palace in the Premier League in 2026 (11 – W2 D5 L4). 

Ipswich, meanwhile, are without a clean sheet in their last 22 top-flight games, conceding 57 goals in that time (2.6 per game). Gary O’Neil is yet to beat Palace in five attempts as a Premier League manager (D1 L4), only losing more games in the competition against Manchester United and West Ham. 

Chelsea and Hull City both went into MD3 with perfect records, though neither were able to maintain them as the Blues lost 2-1 at Arsenal and the Tigers drew 0-0 with Villa. 

It’s Xabi Alonso’s Blues, fresh from a 6-3 EFL Cup win over Leeds United in midweek, who are favoured at Stamford Bridge, boasting a matchday-best 76.1% win probability, compared to Hull’s 9.5%. 

Hull have never won in 18 league visits to Chelsea (D3 L15), the most they’ve faced any opponent away in the top four tiers without winning. 

— Hull City (@HullCity) September 10, 2026

It’s also the most often the Blues have hosted any side without losing in their league history. 

Alonso’s men have scored inside the opening five minutes of each of their three Premier League matches, and only Brentford (in September/October 2024) have ever accomplished that feat in four straight games – no team has done so at the start of a season. 

Something must give, though, as Hull are yet to concede a goal this term – they could become the first promoted team to open a Premier League campaign with four straight clean sheets.  

Villa finally got their first win of the campaign, edging 3-2 past Club Brugge in the Champions League on Tuesday, meaning Unai Emery will be even more desperate for three points in the Premier League. 

And our predictive model expects them to do just that, with a 44.8% win probability, helped by the fact they’ve won each of their last six home top-flight games against Forest. 

But Villa head into MD4 without a league goal for the second campaign running, and they rank 19th for expected goals (2.6 xG), 18th for touches in the opposition’s box (45) and 16th for xG per shot (0.1) in the Premier League so far this season. 

Forest are also seeking a first win under new boss Oliver Glasner, with the supercomputer giving them a 29.2% chance of victory. 

However, only three teams have drawn more league games in 2026 than Forest (10), while only Iraola (33) has overseen more draws than Glasner since his arrival in the competition in February 2024 (31), and there is a 26% chance of a stalemate – the highest of the weekend. 

Having conceded a late equaliser against Newcastle United last week, Bournemouth are the first team in Premier League history to lead in their opening three games of a season and win none of them – no team has ever started a campaign with four such matches. 

Marco Rose’s side, who beat Lincoln City in the EFL Cup in midweek, will hope to finally see out a result at home to Brentford, and the supercomputer assigns them a 39.4% win probability to the Bees’ 35.7%, albeit with a 25% chance of a draw. 

Threeee of the best he’s made them pay, and that completes a wonderful hat-trick pic.twitter.com/NH0Eq76dwS

— AFC Bournemouth (@afcbournemouth) September 8, 2026

That, perhaps, should come as no surprise. Bournemouth (12) and Brentford (11) are two of the three sides with the most draws in the Premier League in 2026.  

Brentford, meanwhile, are unbeaten in their last five league games (W1 D4) and could equal their joint-longest run under Keith Andrews, having enjoyed two separate six-match streaks last season. 

After the early action is concluded on Saturday, Tottenham will look to halt their dire start against Everton.  

Roberto De Zerbi’s side stopped the rot somewhat with last week’s goalless draw against Forest, but they’re yet to find the net this term – Spurs have never started a campaign with four goalless games in their league history. 

They did win both games against Everton last season by a 4-0 aggregate scoreline, though, and they triumphed in 48.2% of the supercomputer’s pre-match predictions, with Everton winning 27.1% and the remaining 24.7% being drawn.  

The Toffees are still unbeaten in the Premier League this season (W1 D2), netting stoppage-time equalisers in their last two games.  

However, Everton are winless in their last six away league games, alternating between losing (three times) and drawing (three) each time – they drew 1-1 at Bournemouth on their last road trip. 

Saturday’s action concludes with an evening match-up between Sunderland and Arsenal, who will be keen to continue their 100% record so far, after Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Napoli in Europe. 

3.81 – Since the start of 2021-22, Arsenal’s 3.81 open play xG against Napoli last night is the most accumulated by an away side in a UEFA Champions League game.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 10, 2026

And at 65.1%, they’re the most likely away winners of the weekend, with Arsenal having only lost one of their last 14 league visits to Sunderland (W8 D5), though they did draw this fixture 2-2 last season. 

If they do triumph, Arsenal will have won their first four games in a top-flight season for the sixth time in their history. 

Sunderland – given a 13% win probability – have won just one of their last 29 Premier League meetings with Arsenal (D10 L18), but they’ve won their last two home league games, both against London sides (Chelsea and Fulham). 

While Villa and Tottenham’s struggles in front of goal have not stopped them from getting a point on the board, Coventry are pointless, winless and goalless through three matchdays, ahead of Sunday’s meeting with Brighton.  

In Premier League history, only Crystal Palace in 2017-18 have lost each of their first four games of a season without scoring, though they ultimately finished 11th that season. 

The Sky Blues have only started one campaign with four defeats in their league history, way back in their first-ever Football League season in 1919-20. 

Frank Lampard’s side are underdogs against Brighton, with the supercomputer assigning them a 25.1% win probability to the Seagulls’ 50.7%, and the remaining 24.2% of simulations finishing level. 

Brighton have lost their last three away Premier League games; however, they’ve only lost one of their last 14 matches against promoted sides (W7 D6).

MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY

All attention then turns to Manchester on Sunday, as Maresca’s Man City look to extend their perfect league start at Man United.

City are the favourites, with a 44.2% chance of victory to United’s 31.6%, but they have won just one of their last four league games against the Red Devils (D1 L2). 

And United have a strong record at home under Michael Carrick, winning nine of their 10 league games at Old Trafford since he took charge in January (L1), while he could become only the third manager in the club’s history to win his first two league matches against City. 

Our first Manchester derby of the season awaits

— Manchester City (@ManCity) September 9, 2026

City are looking to win each of their opening four games in a Premier League campaign for the seventh time, which would be the outright most of any side (Chelsea also six). 

And they have a confident Erling Haaland – fresh off a Champions League brace in a 2-0 win over Porto – up top. He’s scored eight goals in seven league appearances against United, although just two have come away from home. 

The action concludes on Monday, as Elland Road hosts a meeting between two unbeaten sides with five points on the board each – Leeds United and Newcastle.  

Daniel Farke’s side have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games (W5 D6) dating back to last season, and they could go unbeaten through their first four matches in a single campaign for the fourth time, also doing so in 1995-96, 1998-99 and 2001-02. 

While Leeds were arguably unlucky to draw 1-1 with Brighton on MD3, Newcastle had to come from 2-0 down to rescue a draw against Bournemouth. 

Though Mathias Jaissle is yet to taste defeat, having followed up an unbeaten Premier League start with a 1-0 win over Millwall in the EFL Cup, some may argue Newcastle have had some good fortune this season. 

Newcastle have faced more shots than any other side in the Premier League this season (61), averaging 20.3 per game. No side has ever faced 20+ shots per game across a full campaign on record (since 2003-04). 

And at the other end, only three teams had fewer shots on target than Newcastle over the first three matchdays (eight). They’ve scored six goals, overperforming their xG figures by a greater margin than any other side across the first three matchdays (+3, 3 xG). 

And, with a 41.3% win probability, the predictive model makes Leeds slight favourites, with Newcastle winning 33.3% of simulations and earning a point in 25.4%.

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