Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.
The opening weekend of the 2026-27 Premier League season was an enthralling one.
Reigning champions Arsenal began with an easy win over Coventry City, but Hull City stunned Manchester United.
The Enzo Maresca era at Manchester City started with a last-gasp win over Bournemouth, while Brighton thrashed Aston Villa and Liverpool pegged Newcastle United back to a 2-2 draw.
Brentford dismantled big-spending Tottenham, and Xabi Alonso started his Chelsea tenure with a 3-2 win over Fulham.
Matchday 2 will again see matches spread across Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday in another bumper weekend.
Here, we delve into the Opta supercomputer’s predictions.
The action kicks off on Friday at Selhurst Park, with Crystal Palace seeking their first win under Pierre Sage against Man City.
Palace have won just two of their last 22 league meetings with City (D5 L15) and are winless in nine against them since October 2021.
— Manchester City (@ManCity) August 27, 2026
In fact, City are unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League at Palace (W8 D3), but they have only won four of their 10 top-flight matches on the road in 2026 (D5 L1).
Opta’s predictive model gives the Eagles just a 19.8% chance of victory to City’s 57.5%, with a 22.7% possibility of a draw.
Two more bosses in search of their first competitive wins at new clubs face off at Anfield: Andoni Iraola’s Liverpool and Oliver Glasner’s Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool snatched a dramatic draw against Newcastle United last weekend but stretched their winless streak to five league games.
Glasner’s side, meanwhile, have lost twice to Leeds United in the last week on home soil, in the Premier League and EFL Cup, respectively.
Liverpool are tipped to triumph, winning 62.7% of the simulations despite losing their last two home league games against Forest, who made it three straight wins at Anfield in 17.8% of simulations.
Bournemouth shipped two late goals to lose their opener to Man City, while Everton are looking to start a league season with back-to-back wins for the first time since 2020-21 (W4).
The Cherries’ 18-match unbeaten streak was ended with that defeat at the Etihad Stadium. As a result, they are hoping to avoid consecutive defeats for the first time since November/December 2025.
And it seems Bournemouth are most likely to take three points at 47.7%, with Everton’s chances sitting at 27.3%. At 25%, though, there is a healthy likelihood of a draw.
Bournemouth have won more Premier League games against Everton than they have versus any other opponent (nine), a stat that will boost boss Marco Rose’s hopes of earning his first win.
Throwback to Jack Grealish securing all three points on our last trip to Vitality Stadium. pic.twitter.com/zawjZeubYl
— Everton (@Everton) August 28, 2026
Coventry were the only promoted side not to win their opening match after being beaten by champions Arsenal on MD1, while Hull pulled off the shock of the weekend.
Their 2-0 defeat of Man Utd was their first win against the Red Devils in the Premier League, but they are given just a 24.8% chance of making it two wins on the bounce on Saturday, with Coventry the favourites at 50.9%.
In Premier League fixtures exclusively between promoted sides, the home team have won six of the last eight meetings (D1 L1), having won only five of the prior 26 encounters (D6 L15).
Coventry have won just one of their last nine league games against Hull (D5 L3).
Spurs have certainly backed Roberto De Zerbi in the transfer market, but they were hammered by Brentford last week. However, they thrashed Charlton Athletic 5-1 in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, and De Zerbi will now be aiming to build on that against Newcastle.
Newcastle have seen a lot of big names leave this summer – including Sandro Tonali to Spurs – but they were seconds away from winning in Matthias Jaissle’s first game, only denied by a 99th-minute equaliser from the penalty spot against Liverpool.
Despite Spurs being the favourites for this one, winning 43.5% of the simulations to Newcastle’s 31.5%, the Magpies have won more Premier League away games against Spurs than any other opponent (13), winning three of their last four visits (L1).
Spurs have not lost their opening two league games of a campaign since 2011-12.
Brighton thumped 10-man Villa 4-0 last week, scoring all their goals in the first 31 minutes, and they have now won eight of their last 13 Premier League games (25 points – D1 L4).
Despite that impressive showing, they are only given a 26% win probability against Chelsea, even though they have won their last three Premier League games against the Blues, netting three goals each time.
Chelsea have only won their first home league game of the season once in the last seven campaigns (D4 L2), a record Alonso will be desperate to turn around.
They are given a 49.6% chance of winning – and a further 24.4% of a draw – but it’s also worth noting Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 17 league games.
4 – Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers created four chances for one another against Fulham, the most of any duo in the opening round of Premier League matches.
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 25, 2026
Brentford blew Spurs away last Saturday and then thrashed Birmingham City 6-1 in midweek, so Keith Andrews’ side are in a strong position ahead of travelling to Leeds United.
This one is almost too close to call for the supercomputer, with Leeds also winning their opening two games of 2026-27, both against Nottingham Forest, and the Whites are marginal favourites at 39%.
Leeds are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Brentford (W3 D5), though the last three have ended level. In fact, four of the six Premier League meetings between them have been draws, and there is a 25.5% chance of that becoming five.
Brentford, whose win probability sits at 35.5%, are looking to win their opening two league games in a season for the first time since 2006-07 in League One.
Sunderland and Fulham are two more teams the supercomputer is struggling to separate, with both in search of their first wins after losing to Ipswich Town and Chelsea respectively last weekend.
This is the fixture that is likeliest to end level at 26%, but Sunderland are given a greater chance of victory at 39.7% despite not winning any of their last six Premier League home games against Fulham (D3 L3).
In fact, Fulham (34.3% win probability) have won their last three league games against Sunderland, though they have never won four straight against the Black Cats before.
Ipswich snatched a last-gasp win over Sunderland last time out, and now they will be looking to emulate Hull against Manchester United in Sunday’s final game.
Only in 1992-93 and 2022-23 have United lost their opening two Premier League matches in a season, but given they are the likeliest winners of the weekend (65.5%), they are not tipped to add to that list here.
United are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Ipswich (W6 D2), but Michael Carrick remains winless in all three of his Premier League meetings with promoted clubs (D1 L2). Ipswich have just a 15.1% chance of ending their seven-game winless streak against the Red Devils in the competition (D2 L5).
MD2 rounds off at Villa Park, with Villa looking to put their nightmare start behind them against Arsenal.
The last time Villa lost their first two league games in a season was in 2019-20, while the last time they lost both without scoring was in 2002-03, but Unai Emery’s fortunes are not about to turn, according to the supercomputer.
250 – Mikel Arteta is set to become the 10th manager to oversee 250 games for a specific club in the Premier League, can you name the other nine instances?
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 27, 2026
Despite winning four of seven home games against Arsenal since their return to the Premier League in 2019 (L3), Villa’s chances of success on Monday sit at 16.2%.
That could be because the Gunners, who are the likeliest away victors at 61.1%, have won 15 matches at Villa Park in the competition, more than they have at any other away venue.
But Villa will still have some confidence, given they have won their last three Premier League home games against the reigning champions, as many times as they had in their first 28 (W3 D10 L15).
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