Packers vs. Lions preview and predictions: Can GB get big division win?

The Green Bay Packers (4-2) and Detroit Lions (3-2) are headed for a crucial October showdown in the NFC North on Sunday at Ford Field. The winner will gain a valuable division victory; the loser will take a step back in a tight, competitive division race.

The Packers have won three straight games and feature a high-flying and explosive passing game, but the Lions have an elite offense of their own, are coming off the bye and will play at home, where the environment and noise could create problems for the visitors. Sunday starts a crucial stretch and will provide an excellent test for Matt LaFleur’s team.

Previewing Packers-Lions in Week 7 with managing editor Zach Kruse and contributor Mark Oldacres:

What we’re watching

Zach: Most of my focus will be on which team better disrupts the better quarterback. The Packers offensive line remains a work in progress, and it’s possible there will be two new starting guards on Sunday — Aaron Banks at left guard and Kevin Zeitler at right guard. This group took a step back last week against Dallas and now faces a big matchup with Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeil. Can they keep Jordan Love, who is dealing with a sore back, protected from hits? Defensively, the Packers have to find ways to disrupt Jared Goff in the pocket. He’s too good as a distributor when kept protected. Speed him up and force quick decisions under pressure and Goff becomes a much different passer. The line of scrimmage will almost certainly determine the winner at Ford Field on Sunday.

Mark: Do the Packers stick or twist on the offensive line? Against the Cowboys, the unit regressed back closer to the problematic version we saw early in the season, and a stiff test awaits this week in Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. Now seems like the time to make a change at guard and insert Kevin Zeitler into the lineup, after Travis Glover struggled versus Dallas. If Zeitler still doesn’t play, what does it say about what he is (or isn’t) showing the coaches at practice?

Biggest reason for optimism

Zach: Like most weeks now, it’s the Packers pass game — and it’s especially true in this matchup against a Lions defense that has been terrorized through the air in all five games this season. Cornerbacks D.J. Reed and Roger McCreary have given up multiple explosive plays. Even with Brian Branch returning for Detroit, expect to see plenty of shots down the field to test whether the Lions can keep the lid on Green Bay’s explosive pass game. On a fast track inside Ford Field, both Christian Watson and Matthew Golden could have big days if Jordan Love is protected.

Mark: Josh Jacobs is back and could help revive a Packers rushing attack which has been unworkable in the first six weeks. Even if Jacobs is not in tip top shape after not being allowed to play or practice this season, any snaps he can play should give Green Bay’s offense a welcome boost against a defense which is already arguably the worst in the league. If he is able to move the ball on the ground, it will force Detroit’s defense to play Green Bay honest, which should in turn open up more explosive passes.

Biggest reason for concern

Zach: With Edgerrin Cooper and Zaire Franklin both sidelined and three defensive linemen on injured reserve, the biggest concern has to be the Packers defensive front against All-World running back Jahmyr Gibbs. The failures defending Bijan Robinson are still fresh in the mind, and Gibbs is on the same level as Robinson in terms of elusiveness, versatility and big-play ability. Can the defensive front keep the backup linebackers and second-level defenders clean? Can Isaiah McDuffie and Ty’Ron Hopper chase Gibbs sideline to sideline for 60 minutes? Can the defensive backs help fit the run without giving up explosives in the pass game?

Mark: Green Bay’s linebacker situation may be too much to overcome against stud running back Jahmyr Gibbs on Sunday. They already lost Edgerrin Cooper for the season and now Zaire Franklin — who has been Jonathan Gannon’s communicator on the field — will miss this game with a shin injury. They are also thin on the defensive line as Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Ford are both on injured reserve, although Jordon Riley returning from his own injury to play in this game will help somewhat. The only really poor game from the Packers defense this year came when Bijan Robinson ran circles around them in Week 3. They have held Gibbs down in recent contests, but do they have the tools to do it again?

Matchup to watch

Zach: Christian Watson or Matthew Golden against Lions cornerback D.J. Reed. No cornerback has allowed more EPA in coverage this season than Reed, who has given up three touchdown passes, 12.8 yards per target and a passer rating of 146.4 when targeted this season, per Next Gen Stats. Expect Jordan Love to test him early and often. Another matchup to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown against Javon Bullard. An elite slot receiver versus one of the NFL’s ascending slot defenders. Can Bullard give the Packers competitive snaps against St. Brown on third down and in the red zone?

Mark: Javon Bullard vs Amon-Ra St. Brown. Bullard is becoming a star in the slot with his unique combination of ability in coverage and as a factor in the run game, but containing St.Brown will be perhaps his most difficult assignment of the season. One of Bullard’s worst games in coverage last season came in Week 1 against ARSB, and the All-Pro receiver was knocked out of the Thanksgiving game early on with an ankle injury. Can Bullard prove there is no one he can’t cover?

Packers win if…

Zach: They protect Jordan Love and don’t let Jahmyr Gibbs take over the game. The Packers can’t let this matchup turn into a replay of Week 3, when the Falcons beat up on Love in obvious passing situations and Bijan Robinson was the best player on the field. If Love is consistently protected, the Packers are going to score 30-plus points. Gibbs is a great equalizer because the Lions have the personnel to control the game via the run.

Mark: They contain Jahmyr Gibbs. If they are not able to do so, it is going to make life extremely easy for Jared Goff and the Detroit passing game. Goff is yet to throw an interception this season, and getting pressure on the quarterback to move him off the spot is really the only way to give him problems. If the Lions are sitting in 2nd or 3rd and manageable all day because the Packers cannot stop the run on early downs, it is going to be a long afternoon.

Data dump

Zach: Red-zone touchdowns should be expected from both sides. The Lions are scoring touchdowns on 77 percent of trips into the red zone (third best) and allowing touchdowns on 81 percent (second worst). The Packers, meanwhile, are giving up touchdowns on 75 percent of red zone trips, although Jonathan Gannon’s defense did get several big stops in their own territory against the Cowboys last week. In what should be a high scoring game, neither the Packers nor the Lions can afford to settle for short field goals. Even one red zone stop could end up being the difference.

Mark: The Lions defense is 29th in expected points added (EPA) per pass, but they are contesting targets at the fifth highest rate in the league. Jordan Love’s receivers made some vital, tough catches to help seal the win in Detroit last year and will likely need to do the same again. After drop issues returned against the Cowboys, Matthew Golden and Christian Watson must get it cleaned up this week. On the other side of the ball, Goff ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play from a clean pocket at 0.57, outside the pocket he ranks 24th (-0.55). This is not a game to worry about rush lane discipline, as Goff is not going to hurt you with his legs. This would be a good time for Devonte Wyatt to play his best game and consistently flush Goff out of the pocket.

Predictions

Zach: I went back and forth on this prediction, weighing how well the Packers are playing defensively and the volume of explosive plays produced during the three-game win streak against a rested, talented Lions team featuring legitimate playmakers on both sides and a high-scoring offense. Plus, the impact of the environment inside Ford Field. The difference maker? The troubles of the Lions’ defense, especially against the pass. The corners are struggling and Brian Branch isn’t going to solve every problem. It’s just difficult to envision the Lions being the team to get a stop in a big spot. This is a huge game in terms of early-season playoff positioning, especially considering how good all four teams in the NFC North appear to be at this point, so exiting Ford Field with a win would be huge. I’m expecting a back-and-forth game with plenty of explosive plays on both sides. The guess: the Lions tie it late, but Jordan Love gets into Trey Smack’s range and the rookie walks it off for the Packers. Packers 30, Lions 27

Mark: Green Bay’s offensive has been productive enough to secure three straight wins but there were warning signs against Dallas, as the offensive line started to struggle again and points were left on the field due to drops. It remains to be seen if there are any changes on the offensive line, whether Josh Jacobs plays, and how impactful either of those changes are. On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Gannon’s defense has been the more consistent contributor in the 4-2 start, but after passing the test of a talented Cowboys offense, they face an even more difficult challenge on the road in Detroit. It is tough to see them slowing down a Lions attack which can do damage on the ground through Jahmyr Gibbs, or through the air with Jared Goff — who is yet to throw an interception — as well as his multiple weapons. The Packers may need to win a shootout to come out on top, and there are enough reasons to think they will make one too many mistakes on offense for that to happen. Lions 31, Packers 28

This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Packers vs. Lions preview and predictions: Can GB get big division win?