Ohio State opens as 14.5-point favorites over Iowa in Week 5

45.5

For our purposes, Ohio State picking up its first Big Ten win of the season was the most important event of the college football Saturday. But there was another fairly sizeable occurrence that happened over the weekend in a house that some call big. Despite the fact that the Iowa Hawkeyes pulled off a thrilling 20-19 road victory over then-No. 18 Michigan, oddsmakers still expect Ohio State to come away with a fairly comfortable victory when they head to Iowa City this weekend.

According to our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, No. 5 Ohio State opened as a 14.5-point favorite over No. 14 Iowa ahead of Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff at Kinnick Stadium. The over/under currently sits at just 44.5 points, while the Buckeyes are -630 on the moneyline and the Hawkeyes are +450.

That total tells you pretty much everything you need to know about what Vegas expects from this matchup. While Ohio State’s offense exploded for 42 points and 609 yards against Illinois, Iowa is allowing just eight points per game through four contests.

Ohio State enters the matchup at 3-1 overall and 3-1 against the spread. The Buckeyes covered their first three games against Ball State, Texas, and Kent State, but Saturday’s 23-point victory over Illinois fell short of the 27.5-point line. With the teams combining for 61 points against an over/under of 53.5, Ohio State is also now 3-1 to the over this fall.

Similarly, the Hawkeyes have also been pretty profitable against the number through the first month of the season. Iowa is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS, including Saturday’s outright win at Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog. However, Kirk Ferentz’s team has gone the other direction when it comes to totals. Iowa is just 1-3 to the over, with Saturday’s 39 combined points sneaking under a closing total in the neighborhood of 40 points.

Historically, this has been a series controlled by the Buckeyes. Ohio State leads the all-time series 48-15-3 and has won the last two meetings. However, this will be OSU’s first trip to Kinnick since 2017, and I assume I don’t need to remind anyone what happened that afternoon… so I will not be elaborating any further.

The teams most recently met in Columbus in 2024, with the Buckeyes rolling to a 35-7 victory. Ohio State piled up 412 yards of offense, including 203 on the ground, while Emeka Egbuka caught three touchdown passes. Then-true freshman Jeremiah Smith added four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown, while the Buckeye defense recorded nine tackles for loss, forced two fumbles, and picked off one pass.

As for this week’s game, the gold-standard college football analytics model, SP+, also likes Ohio State in the matchup, although not quite as much as the FanDuel bookmakers do.

The SP+ ratings have Ohio State No. 2 nationally with an overall rating of 29.7, including the No. 1 offense and No. 3 defense, while Iowa sits No. 19 with the country’s No. 10 defense and No. 51 offense. SP+’s score projection gives the Buckeyes a 76% victory probability and a projected score of 30-19.

So, what say you, Buckeye fans? Do Julian Sayin, Jeremiah Smith, and the Ohio State offense have enough firepower to separate from Iowa, or will Kinnick Stadium produce another one of those uncomfortable Big Ten afternoons?

Either way, tell us what you think will happen in the comments below, but also check the latest odds from the FanDuel Sportsbook and put your money where your mouth is.