Sometimes the NFL makes bad decisions on its prime-time games. But there are other instances in which the league is just unlucky.
When the schedule came out in May, the Thursday night game for Week 5 was a reasonable choice. The Dallas Cowboys are always interesting and were an offseason darling. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers struggled in the second half of last season but they had plenty of stars and were the preseason favorite to win the NFC South. At very least, Buccaneers at Cowboys should have held our interest.
Nobody figured on the Bucs being this bad by Week 5.
The Buccaneers were 0-3 when they lost Baker Mayfield to a dislocated right thumb. They had a curious backup quarterback plan for the season, going with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels. When Mayfield went down, Daniels became the first undrafted rookie quarterback since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970 to start a game in Week 4 or earlier. And the results were predictable, with Daniels playing hard and well considering the circumstances but Tampa Bay still losing 17-14 to the Green Bay Packers to fall to 0-4. The Buccaneers are 2-11 in their last 13 games. Head coach Todd Bowles might be on the hot seat.
And while anything can happen in the NFL, facing a winless Buccaneers team with an undrafted rookie at quarterback is clearly a fortunate break for the Cowboys. Dallas rallied last week to beat the Houston Texans 34-30. That bumped Dallas’ record back to 2-2, which is not bad shape considering the rest of the NFC East has issues. The Cowboys have their own issues too. The Cowboys defense is 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play, ahead of only the Detroit Lions. The offense has been good, as expected. The defense hasn’t shown much improvement from last season, when it gave up the most points in franchise history.
The good news for the Cowboys is the Buccaneers, in their current stats, are one of the few teams that might not be able to exploit that defense.
Dallas Cowboys’ Dak Prescott leads his team into a Thursday night game against the Buccaneers. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
It depends if you think the Buccaneers’ season is over at 0-4. It might be. Perhaps Baker Mayfield can return as early as Week 6, and if so, 1-4 in the NFC South isn’t completely out of the race. No team in NFL history has made the playoffs after starting 0-5 though. Considering the Buccaneers have shown so few signs of life, the game probably means more to the Cowboys. They’re 2-2 and trailing only the New York Giants, who are without quarterback Jaxson Dart for the rest of the season, in the NFC East. A loss to Jalon Daniels and the Buccaneers wouldn’t just be bad in the NFC East, it would cause a firestorm that would last for 10 days until Dallas plays again.
Lamb has been an elite receiver for many years, and he’s on pace to smash his career highs. Lamb is averaging an NFL-best 124.5 yards per game, which is well ahead of his former career best of 102.9 yards. He also is averaging 9.3 receptions per game, and he has never been above eight per game. Last week’s monster game, with 17 catches for 189 yards and a game-winning touchdown, was an extension of his hot streak. It was Lamb’s third straight 100-yard game. The Buccaneers’ pass defense has been solid. It hasn’t allowed more than 245 passing yards in a game this season. But it will be a challenge to slow down Lamb, the hottest receiver in the NFL.
This game was Cowboys -3.5 and it was -9.5 on the lookahead, due to how bad Tampa Bay has looked (and Baker Mayfield’s injury), along with the potency of Dallas’ offense. The Bucs are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread, and the Jalon Daniels-led offense only put up 134 passing yards and 14 points against Green Bay. While Daniels should be able to throw on the Cowboys D, it’s hard to see Tampa Bay matching points here. A raucous Cowboys Stadium in primetime is also very different than a 1 p.m. ET start at home on a Sunday. This line has come down a bit, but ranges from Cowboys -7.5 to -8.5 in the market. I expect Dallas to cover — as do public bettors loading up on them.
Check out more of Ben’s work at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
The Cowboys are expected to roll over Tampa Bay in the Week 5 opener, but you know what they say in this league, Any Given Thursday. Here are three fantasy themes to track as you watch the game.
1. Will Jalon Daniels be improved in his second start? Daniel was put in a difficult position last week, an undrafted rookie asked to start a month into his NFL career. Predictably, he produced just 148 passing yards and no one in the Buccaneers’ offense got past 40 yards receiving. We’re pulling for Daniels, in part so we can squeeze some value from the Tampa Bay receiving room.
2. What’s the distribution in the Dallas passing game? CeeDee Lamb went bonkers in the win at Houston last week, a 17-189-1 detonation on 21 targets. Meanwhile, George Pickens was limited to just three targets, though he did produce 75 yards and drew two defensive penalties. Lamb has clearly reestablished himself as the alpha in Dallas, but the Cowboys know it’s important to keep Pickens engaged, too.
3. What will Bucky Irving’s usage look like? Although Irving had a credible 16-61-0 rushing line last week, teammates stole from his bottom line — Sean Tucker punched in a short touchdown run, and Kenneth Gainwell had a touchdown catch. Perhaps more concerning for Irving managers, he wasn’t targeted in the passing game. Irving had seven catches in the season opener at Cincinnati — that feels like a year ago.
Check out more of Scott’s work at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.
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