Make it make sense: 9 questions to unlock MLB trade deadline uncertainty

Nairavoice | Jul 28, 2026 1h ago 119 0 18 min read

Make it make sense: 9 questions to unlock MLB trade deadline uncertainty

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — The mass confusion was supposed to be gone by now.

The decisions to sell, buy or stand pat should have been finalized with everyone having a clear direction.

And yet, with just six shopping days left before the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline, we have less clarity now than at the All-Star break.

The Miami Marlins produced their greatest June (20-6) in franchise history, lost a franchise-record 12 games in a row, staged a dramatic comeback against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday, and are smack-dab in the NL wild-card race.

The Boston Red Sox, who had the American League’s worst record (32-46) a month ago, are cruising now at 55-50, and could be the AL favorites to reach the World Series.

The Seattle Mariners, who looked they were on the verge of taking off and leaving everyone in the dust in the AL West, suddenly are watching reruns of a living nightmare in what could become the most exasperating season in franchise history.

And there are the Detroit Tigers, who have been putting everyone on hold for weeks, but now may be forced to pick up the phone and face reality.

1. Luis Arraez, 2B, Giants There he is, the perfect trade deadline candidate: A man on an expiring contract playing for a terrible team and enjoying a career year. What’s not to love? While Arraez noted he would not like to move off second base after doggedly improving to Gold Glove caliber this year, his tune might change once he realizes he has plenty of equity to take into the offseason. The three-time batting champ has, thanks to his viability at second, amassed 3.1 WAR and has a 136 adjusted OPS despite just four homers. Immediate lineup punch for a team in need.

https:%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs Make it make sense: 9 questions to unlock MLB trade deadline uncertainty

2. Luke Weaver, RP, Mets Since June 1, Weaver has given up two hits and zero earned runs across 14 appearances, with a 19-3 strikeout walk ratio. He served as Yankees closer all the way through the 2024 World Series and can fill any role in a club’s bullpen. At $8 million this year and $11 million in 2027, he’s a reasonable get. The only question is whether the Mets will want to hang on to him for their hoped-for 2027 renaissance.

3. Robbie Ray, SP, Giants It’s been five years since Ray struck out 248 and won the AL Cy Young Award; now, he’s averaging just 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. But the man posted a 3.38 first-half ERA and had two starts of eight scoreless innings. And a 41-55 team went 12-7 in his starts. Perfect lefty starter rental.

4. Michael Wacha, SP, Royals If not for his limited no-trade protection, Wacha might top this list, given the Royals’ 38-59 record and his All-Star season. Simply, no one’s getting deeper into games – and with a 1.19 WHIP – than Wacha, who is guaranteed a reasonable $15 million in 2027.

5. Mason Miller, RP, Padres Volatile one, this. The Padres remain a sellout machine and are just 3½ games out of a wild card spot. And a pending sale of the club should be finalized soon. From an “optics” standpoint, not the best time to trade the most dominant closer in baseball. But AJ Preller usually has five or six next steps in mind when he does a deal, and Miller would still fetch a significant return – perhaps better than the Padres having to deal top prospect Leo DeVries to the A’s to get him.

6. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds Definitely checks the “his team will be sellers” and “he’s a pending free agent” boxes. Ty Steve has just six homers and an 88 adjusted OPS this season but did smack 19 homers last year and would bring far more offensive upside than your typical catcher on the move at the deadline.

7. Foster Griffin, SP, Nationals Another tricky one. Griffin has been the biggest coup for the new-look Nationals front office, unleashing his eight-pitch mix on hitters after three years in Japan and winning 10 games with a 2.77 ERA, earning a most unlikely All-Star nod. Even more surprising: The Nationals were near or above .500 most of the first half, generating some buzz that they might actually buy at the deadline. But they hit the break coming off a sweep at the hands of the Yankees, and reality might further intrude these next three weeks. Trading Griffin would allow the Nats to split the baby, in a sense: Getting back a potentially very good return for a difference-making lefty, while holding on to All-Star shortstop CJ Abrams and not further depressing a fan base that’s lived through six consecutive losing seasons.

8. Jake McCarthy, OF, Rockies Dealing McCarthy would fulfill a successful first stage for the Paul DePodesta Regime: Collecting veterans, pumping their trade value and getting assets in return. Never mind Coors Field, McCarthy’s adjusted OPS is 23% above league average and offers significant value as a lefty bat who’s manned all three outfield spots this season.

9. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers Here’s how the Tigers start the second half: At Angels, at Cubs, Royals, Orioles and then a trip to Yolo County to face the Athletics just before the deadline. A nice formula to jump right back in the race and thus decrease the likelihood Skubal gets dealt. It doesn’t hurt that the Tigers have a pair of races to attack – the AL Central (6½ out) and wild card (3½ out).

10. Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Diamondbacks A few hurdles here: Arizona must further fade from contention. Rodriguez, fresh off an All-Star appearance, can block trades to 10 teams. And he’s had a good first half yet is still owed $19 million in 2027, and a $17 million 2028 option can vest after just 36 more innings pitched this year. A lot of what-ifs for a pitcher often wracked by injury, but Rodriguez is throwing the ball very well right now and could make a postseason difference for somebody, perhaps if Arizona kicks in a little cash for ’27.

11. Dustin May, SP, Cardinals A pretty low-risk add for a contender, May nearly no-hit the Padres, then had a pair of blow-up starts, but he’s essentially providing a quality start (4.55 ERA) out of his spot in St. Louis’ rotation. Not the flame-throwing prodigy once in the Dodgers’ system, but May is more reliable now and is owed only a $500,000 buyout after this season.

12. Devin Williams, RP, Mets He hasn’t been great this year but performed serviceably of late, with six saves in his past eight chances and a 3.07 ERA. Not great, and then he’s owed $30 million the next two seasons. Yet just imagine how many clubs will be seeking competent bullpen help.

13. Mickey Moniak, OF, Rockies The Rockies’ 1A outfield trade chip behind McCarthy, Moniak offers less defense but decent pop from the left side, with 15 homers in just 209 at-bats.

14. Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals Nootbaar wasn’t a part of the Cardinals’ surprise early season surge in this supposed rebuilding year, missing the first 60 games after offseason surgery on his heels. And he’s been fine in his return, OPS-ing .778 as he gets up to speed. But Nootbaar already doesn’t play against lefties, and as a free agent after 2027, he doesn’t necessarily fit the Cardinals’ timeline for earnest contention. He’d be a nice clubhouse and on-field addition for a club seeking a lefty-swinging outfielder, and the Cardinals could both open up plate appearances for younger players and still try to contend by dealing him.

15. Bo Bichette, INF, Mets Let’s be up front about this: Bichette has a full no-trade clause, giving him control over basically every lever in the three-year, $142 million deal he signed with New York, a pact that includes opt-outs in 2027 and 2028. Yep, he’s in a great spot: Hit the market again next winter or collect $42 million after a season in which he’s produced an 88 adjusted OPS and a .300 OBP. So why would a team acquire him? Well, the dude can still rake and given a fresh start could go win someone a World Series. But so many what-ifs: Bichette green-lighting a deal, and a team willing to take on a potentially huge salary the following two seasons. The upside: Bichette’s still a really great hitter in a league with few of them.

16. Spencer Steer, 1B, Reds After an uneven first half (he batted .159 with a .629 OPS in June), Steer has surged nicely to bump his home run total to 14 and OPS to .749. The Reds are one of just a few sellers and Steer’s multi-positional magic will be a nice selling point to contenders.

17. Peter Lambert, SP, Astros A really nice find for the Astros after Lambert spent 2025 in Tokyo with the Yakult Swallows, he kept their rotation afloat the entire first half, with a 3.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 15 starts. For now, Houston is intent on adding but come Aug. 3, the Astros could be staring at too high a climb for either division or wild card. Lambert can help someone immediately.

18. Luis Garcia, 1B-2B-DH, Nationals The above caveats with Griffin largely also apply to Garcia, though he has one more year before free agency, potentially enhancing his value. Garcia’s slow rise with the Nationals finally gave way to a career year, with 20 homers and an .871 OPS, justifying his move to first base. Would be a nice stealthy power bat for a contender to add, and a great sell-high scenario for Washington.

19. Isaac Collins, OF, Royals He was a nice cog in the Brewers’ NLCS club last year and then got dealt to the Royals, where he’s been perfectly fine (five homers, .345 OBP, 103 adjusted OPS). Yeah, that’s kind of what you get with Collins, but a competent switch-hitting outfielder should have several teams (Phillies, anyone?) interested.

20. Jonathan Loaisiga, RP, Diamondbacks The former Yankee late-inning guy has, after three injury-wracked seasons, found his groove again in the desert, posting a 0.99 WHIP even as his strikeouts per nine innings (6.3) is far off his 2021 peak (8.8) If the D-backs collapse, closer Paul Sewald should be available too, but his 4.34 FIP is far inferior to Loaisiga’s 2.78.

21. JJ Bleday, OF, Reds Does Cincinnati buy Bleday’s breakout and view him as a key part of their future? He has two more seasons before free agency, and perhaps the Reds believe in his massive jump in OBP (.294 to .350) and slimmed-down strikeout rate (36.9% to 28%). Conversely, after Bleday hit 16 first-half homers, perhaps this is the ultimate sell-high scenario.

22. Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers The usual qualifiers that apply to Skubal play here, too. Flaherty didn’t look like he’d have much trade value, his ERA at 5.81 through 12 starts, but he’s figured it out, with a 2.12 ERA and 34-10 strikeout-walk ratio in his past six outings.

23. JT Brubaker, RP, Giants Hard to believe there’s anything redeemable from the rancid Giants bullpen, but Brubaker has a 2.87 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, though he doesn’t miss many bats. Club could silently score PR points with its base by dealing one of the No-Pride Four.

24. Michael Soroka, SP, Diamondbacks He hasn’t made more than 17 starts since 2019, but perhaps Soroka’s major health issues are finally behind him. He was just fine through 15 starts in Arizona, posting a 1.09 WHIP. Making just $7.5 million on an expiring contract, so he’s far more easily tradeable than the All-Star Rodriguez.

25. Ty France, 1B, Padres Signed just as free agency began, France has once again emerged as a handy right-handed bat, with 11 homers and an .815 OPS. He won’t play much else than first these days – he’s logged five innings at third base this season – but got a touch of World Series experience with Toronto last season.

There are still 24 teams who are either sitting in first place or within five games of a wild-card berth.

Even the teams that have full intentions to sell, like the Cincinnati Reds and Toronto Blue Jays, realize they’re only a five-game winning streak away from believing once again.

This is what happens when there are seven National League teams who are no better than three games above .500, or no worse than six games below .500, and all in the race.

The are six teams in the American League who have losing records but are within five games of a playoff berth.

The Chicago White Sox have a losing record (10-11) this month, but have not lost any ground in the standings, and still lead the AL Central by two games.

The Tigers really don’t want to trade him, knowing the anger and frustration it will create among their players and fanbase, but the decision really is becoming clear. The Tigers, who just dropped three games in a row to sub-.500 teams, and are now seven games below .500 themselves, have no choice but to trade Skubal.

They will try to sell the trade as building for the future, while still not giving up the present. After all, they did it a couple years ago when they dumped starter Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers, and received shortstop prospect Trey Sweeney and catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo. The Tigers still made the postseason, and the Dodgers won the World Series.

Then again, it can backfire, too. Just ask the Milwaukee Brewers who traded All-Star closer Josh Hader to the San Diego Padres in 2022 for Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Robert Gasser and Esteury Ruiz. It ripped the soul out of the Brewers clubhouse, and they never recovered, missing the postseason.

The decision: They trade him, and likely No. 2 starter Casey Mize, too, while trying to convince their fans it’s really the right thing to do.
trade All-Star closer Mason Miller?

The Padres are holding onto Miller one day, and trading him the next. They plan to trade starter Michael King one day and keep Miller, only to flip-flop the next. No one has any idea what A.J. Preller, president of baseball operations, will do.

The Padres, who bought Juan Soto one trade deadline, and dumped him 1½ years later, are in the same predicament. They’d love to keep Miller, who’s under control through 2029, but his value is closing out games for a championship contender. This is why the Athletics traded him originally, knowing that he’d be rotting in the bullpen if there were no leads to hold down. Now, the Padres have to face reality and ask themselves if they’re a legitimate playoff team.

The decision: They decide to keep Miller for now, but then trade him during the winter, creating a fierce bidding war. They instead trade setup man, Adrian Morejon, who’s a free agent after the season.
go for it and land biggest fish, Tarik Skubal?

The ownership and front office would love to let their fans and clubhouse know that they’re all in. They certainly have the prospects, and the financial flexibility to get it done. They also realize that unless they get another prized starter to go along with stud Jacob Misiorowski, they have no real chance to knock off the Dodgers and get to their first World Series since 1982. It will be the same ol’ story, get into the playoffs, and bow our early. So will they finally step out of their comfort zone?

The decision: Nope. They simply don’t believe that Skubal will be the magic elixir for all of their needs. They still need a power bat. They could use another late-inning reliever. They could use someone to step up and be that solid No. 3 starter. Simply, there’s too much risk for the Brewers to take on Skubal when they know they’re going to be in the postseason, anyway.

General managers will tell you that they’re not even thinking about the upcoming lockout, saying it’s completely out of their control. They want to win now, and will worry about the future later. But their bosses may have more of a desire to remain cautious than trade prospects. If there’s a salary cap one day, the young prospects making minimum salary will be more valuable than ever.

The decision: Teams may actually be more aggressive because owners are now telling them to prepare for the possibility of a prolonged work stoppage, even canceling all of next season. If there’s not going to a season, why not go for the gusto, knowing you can be the defending champions for two years without playing a game next season?
go all-in?

Can the White Sox lose a record 121 games two years ago, and 102 last season, and really pull this off and be in the postseason?

Sure, the White Sox can do it. The division completely stinks. If no one wants to take it, why not the White Sox? But they desperately need a veteran starter or two to stick around until October.

Decision: They’d love to be in the playoffs, but no, they are not going to be aggressive. They are not going to trade away top prospects and find themselves in the same situation they were in when they had to start another rebuild in 2022.

If a pitcher with team control like Reid Detmers falls into their laps, sure. If teams are wary about Robbie Ray‘s $25 million contract, they’ll put their chips in. But they are not going to mortgage the future. They’re quite content to ride it out, believing this team will be built for sustained success.
trade Francisco Lindor?

He makes a ton of money with half of his 10-year, $341 million contract still remaining.

He is having a lousy season, just like the rest of his New York Mets teammates.

When David Stearns, president of baseball operations, reeled off his untouchable players at the trade deadline, he did not include Lindor.

Certainly, he showed off his talent to the rest of the world Monday night with his two homers, triple and six RBIs.

So why not trade him now, clearing payroll and building for the future?

The decision: The Mets will ultimately trade him, believing it’s best for the organization, but just not now. Teams need to get creative with their finances, and besides, if there is a lengthy lockout, teams may be hesitant to take on his massive contract.
be able to fill all of their needs at the deadline?

The New York Yankees have the second-best record in the American League, 60-46, and perhaps the fiercest rotation in the game, but they have holes everywhere.

They have $120 million worth of stars currently sidelined with outfielders Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Cody Bellinger on the injured list.

They have the worst-producing catcher in baseball with Austin Wells slashing .165/.267/.277.

They don’t have any reliable late-inning relievers.

And, truthfully, they have no idea when or if Judge is even coming back.

The answer: Yankees don’t have enough prospects to fill all of their needs, but they will get a catcher and perhaps another outfielder, too. Yet, they won’t go too crazy, knowing that if Judge isn’t able to make it back in time, the season will be a lost cause, anyway.

The Dodgers are making their big second-half moves in the next few days when they activate two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell, All-Star closer Edwin Díaz and playoff hero Kiké Hernández.

So, they really don’t have to have Skubal.

They’ll still win 100 games and run away with the division and be well-rested for October.

The decision: The Dodgers are so loaded with prized minor-league outfielders they could hand them out for Halloween, and still be fine.

Yes, they may not need Skubal, they’d love just to keep him away from everyone else.

And once they have him, well, they might as well keep him.

The Phillies have been desperately looking for a right-handed bat. They badly need a veteran setup man. And they certainly could use another starter, going 5-21 in games not started by Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Aaron Nola.

Certainly, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski never has been shy trading away prospects to acquire stars. He did that with Miguel Cabrera when he was with the Tigers. He did that with Chris Sale when he was with the Boston Red Sox. And with age catching up to his stars, will he want to keep his prospects or go for the jugular?

The decision: Dombrowski will go all in and do what it takes no matter how many top prospects are needed. He badly wants another chance to return to the World Series.

Follow Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale

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