Kyren Williams takes over Rams backfield, while Carnell Tate and Isaiah Likely emerge as fantasy factors

Target data is something we always need to consider, but it doesn’t stop there. Every week we’ll jump into the spreadsheets to try to figure out what’s going on with pass-catchers — who’s popping (or slumping) and some of the reasons why.

Open up those spreadsheets and let’s see what we find.

Kyren Williams receiving his due

We generally want pieces of the Sean McVay offense, and for most of the summer, Blake Corum was a target player of mine. Corum had a meaty role in the second half of 2025 and didn’t feel that different than starter Kyren Williams. This wasn’t a full-on fade of Williams — I did draft him here and there — but Corum was the preferred pick at cost.

But it’s a snow globe league, and our opinions are allowed to change. And through four weeks of the fresh season, Williams looks like he was the right answer all along.

Williams sits as the RB6 through the opening quarter, while Corum is the RB44. The backfield was close to a 50-50 split for two weeks (Williams had 28 touches, Corum had 23), but Willams took over the past two games. Williams has 47 touches over that period, compared to just 14 for Corum.

Corum really hasn’t done anything wrong. He’s at 4.9 YPC, a very good number. But Williams has an even better 5.4 YPC,, and his 64.8% success rate is the best in the league. And out of nowhere, Williams has stepped up his receiving game.

Williams started the receiving spike with a 6-70-0 haul at Denver in Week 3. And he was liberally used as a receiver in last week’s comeback game with the Eagles, drawing 13 targets and putting up 10-76-0. These two yardage totals represent the best receiving games of Williams’ five-year career. He now ranks second among all running backs in targets, receptions and yards (Jahmyr Gibbs is first in all three of those categories).

I don’t want to misrepresent what this likely means. Williams isn’t running intricate routes — we’re not talking about peak Marshall Faulk here. And often running backs collect a bunch of receptions when two things coalesce — the defense is conceding a short pass (probably because it has a lead) and the quarterback is willing to take it. Matthew Stafford hasn’t thrown that much to his backs in recent years. And if the Rams play with a lead more often in coming weeks, Williams could see his receiving work drop off.

But the last two weeks have shown how much the Rams trust Williams in hurry-up spots and negative game scripts. Williams always held borderline RB1 value if the Rams limited his receiving work and used him on about 60% of the backfield touches. But the shift in usage makes us reevaluate what Williams might be. Williams landed in the third round for the final few weeks of draft season, but he’s playing like a second-round pick — perhaps an early-second-round pick — through the opening quarter. And Corum’s presumed standalone value looks dead at the moment.

That’s where the snow sits now, anyway. Let’s see what settles after the globe gets another shake.

Carnell Tate is taking off

We often talk about how player development isn’t always linear. We have to be open-minded to different paths to improvement.

That said, there’s something refreshing when a player does show relatively linear advancement. And that’s been the story with Tennessee rookie WR Carnell Tate.

Tate’s weekly scan looks like this: WR55, WR70, WR40, WR11. His busiest games have come in the last two weeks, and in Week 4’s loss to the Ravens, he returned a 9-145-0 line, on 12 targets.

Cam Ward has posted a 94.3 rating and an 8.4 YPA when he targets Tate this year. Ward drops to a 77.6 rating and 5.3 YPA when targeting everything else.

Wan’Dale Robinson won’t complete disappear, of course — OC Brian Daboll wouldn’t hear of it. Ward actually has a 111.3 rating when targeting Robinson, bumped by the two short touchdowns. But Robinson’s averaging just 5.3 yards per target and 7.7 yards per reception. The Titans are wise to let Tate take over this target tree.

Tate also shows up on one of my favorite leaderboards — the Diontae Johnson leaderboard. This is my silly way of framing players who have the most targets without a touchdown, a nod to what Johnson did in 2022 (zero touchdowns on 147 targets). Any player receiving regular work without any touchdown luck is a screaming candidate for positive regression. In short, target these guys.

Tate will be an interesting player to watch in Week 5, when he faces the Houston defense. The Texans were considered the best defense in the AFC before the season, but Houston has allowed the most fantasy points wide receivers through four weeks. The rest of the month also looks favorable for Tate — games against Indianapolis, Cleveland and Cincinnati.

Isaiah Likely enters the chat

Vanity Tight End has been a mixed bag for the opening month. Brock Bowers missed two games but he’s been a smash since, easily the best per-game averages at the position. Trey McBride is the TE2, a bankable weekly star. Tyler Warren sits at TE11, a slight disappointment but there’s time for improvement. And the less we say about Colston Loveland this year, the better.

I went into most of my drafts targeting Juwan Johnson late and so far, so good (TE3). But that strategy kept me away from Likely this year, and maybe that’s been a mistake. Nothing wrong with a balanced portfolio.

The counting stats all support Likely’s TE6 start. He’s second at the position in targets, 10th in yards. His first game with Jameis Winston starting was a mess (2-13-0), but Winston played a lot better last week and Likely returned a 7-66-0 line (12 targets).

What’s especially encouraging is the Giants want Likely to be a featured player. He’s drawn a first-read target on 34.1% of plays, 11th overall and third at the position (behind the obvious stars, Bowers and McBride). That number has actually gone up in the Winston starts — Likely has a 37.1% rate over the past two games.

We like to draft tight ends who can be the first or second read in their offenses, and Likely checks that box. Only Malik Nabers is a challenge to his targets; Malachi Fields and Darnell Mooney aren’t major priorities right now, and Cam Skattebo has just nine targets. Likely is also getting a ton of slot work (82.4%), where the throws are easier to make and quicker to define. Even if the YPC doesn’t spike this year, Likely is a good bet to beat his summer ADP.

Statistics from Fantasy Points and Pro Football Reference were used in the research and composition of this article.