Iowa State vs. BYU football pick, prediction for Week 6 game | Hines

AMES – Every game is its own challenge, of course, though some certainly offer up bigger, or at least different, difficulties. 

Take Iowa State football’s game at BYU on Friday, Oct. 9, for example. 

The Cougars are a top-10 team playing at home. That, by itself, is hard enough, but that’s not the only tricky part of the week for the Cyclones. 

Iowa State (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) has to head west a time zone, play on a short week, kick off at 9:15 p.m. CT (with the game ending somewhere around 1 a.m. back in Ames) and play at roughly 4,500 feet of elevation.  

That’s a lot of atypical-ness for a sport that clings to routine as though it’s oxygen. 

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The only thing football loves more than routine, though, is the toughness to act like being out of it doesn’t matter. 

“I think the more you talk about things,” Iowa State coach Jimmy Rogers said, “the worse things are, honestly.” 

I don’t think Rogers will have a second career as a psychiatrist, if I’m being honest. 

Shrugging off the unique details of this game may well be the best course of action, though. There’s nothing Rogers or Iowa State can do about when or where this game is being played. 

So worrying about it – or maybe even mentioning it to your players – probably doesn’t do a whole lot of good. 

“We’re going out with the expectation,” Rogers said, “to compete and win a game.” 

The former is something Iowa State has done, minimally, in all five of its contests this season, though the latter seems like a stretch against the eighth-ranked Cougars. Though perhaps not as much as it did even a week ago. 

BYU will be without the Big 12’s reigning Offensive Player of the Year in running back LJ Martin, who has already been ruled out of the game due to injury. 

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The Cougars will still be formidable with quarterback Bear Bachmeier leading the charge and they’re still two-touchdown favorites. But Martin’s absence moves this game from a major longshot for Iowa State to what would just be a significant upset. 

Still not likely, but, hey, there’s a shot. 

Which is more than we maybe would have predicted a few weeks ago. 

Having a shot – a real shot – is also significant for the Cyclones because their task for the rest of the season is something of a numbers game. 

The quest for six wins and bowl eligibility may be determined in the volume of opportunities Iowa State creates for itself. The big question coming into the season for a team made up mostly of transfers from lower levels is if they could even compete in the Big 12. The fear being there would be precious few opportunities to even try to steal a win, let alone start stacking them. 

Now that they’ve shown they can be competitive, having as many 50/50 games (or better) as possible gives them a lot of bites at the apple. Which is probably helpful considering that while the Cyclones look to be competitive, consistency is going to be another matter as they march through the Big 12. 

If the Cyclones have a chance at six, or all seven of their final games, the probabilities of getting those final three wins are a lot more favorable than if a few of them were just nonstarters. 

Math, though, is just math. Football is another thing entirely. 

Iowa State (3-2, 1-1 Big 12) vs. No. 8 BYU (4-0, 2-0)

Time, TV and line: 9:15 p.m.; ESPN; BYU by 10.5

Where BYU has the edge: Despite Iowa State’s 45-point outburst last week against West Virginia, the Cyclones’ offense hasn’t yet earned the trust that it can have consistent success against better defenses (of which the Mountaineers certainly are not). The Cougars, meanwhile, have a top-five defense in the Big 12, including a rush defense that has surrendered just 75 yards per game. If BYU can bottle up Aiden Flora, that puts a ton of pressure on an Iowa State passing game that hasn’t delivered much this season.

Where Iowa State has edge: The Cyclones’ defense got absolutely shredded in the second half against West Virginia, but just like we shouldn’t be convinced Iowa State’s offense has fixed all its issues, neither should we believe the Cyclone defense has collapsed. Iowa State hangs its hat on its defense, and the Cyclones should be looking to make amends. Without Martin, BYU’s offense becomes significantly less dynamic – and perhaps easier to stop.

Prediction: BYU 28, Iowa State 17 … I imagine the Cyclones making a game of this Friday night, but I do think they’re prone to wearing down with the short week, late kick and elevation – not to mention the injuries that have already started to deplete the defense. Ultimately, the top-10 Cougars will prove to be too much.

Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000. Follow him on X at @TravisHines21.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State vs. BYU football pick, prediction for Week 6 game | Hines