Kentucky at Oklahoma: Final thoughts and prediction

Kentucky football travels to Norman, Oklahoma to face the Sooners under the lights as kickoff is set for 7:30 P.M. ET. This is a massive game for both teams as they are both coming off huge wins last week. We have previewed the Oklahoma struggling offense and their elite defense, as well as laid out Kentucky’s path to victory. Now, I will give out my final thoughts and prediction for this game on Saturday night.

Kentucky’s defense has to keep playing opportunistically against an Oklahoma offense that has still not found their way out of this slump. Quarterback John Mateer can make mistakes when you make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Oklahoma ranks first in the SEC in three-and-out rate as well as negative play rate offensively, and they have the lowest explosive play rate in the conference. This directly aligns with what Kentucky’s defense excels at, the Wildcats rank 4th in the SEC in negative play percentage forced and the rank 5th in explosive play percentage allowed.

This is a great chance for Kentucky’s defense to have a breakout performance. Oklahoma has faced some great defenses, but their offense doesn’t have anything they hang their hat on. They are relying on their defense and special teams to help them put points on the board. This is the opportunity for Jay Bateman to showcase his defense is capable of shutting down an offense.

Make no mistake about it, the true matchup to watch is Brent Venables’ elite defense against Will Stein’s unique offense. Will the Sooners be able to communicate at a high level against all the pre snap movement, the unique formations and personnel grouping? Will the Wildcats be able to communicate at a high level against the pressure looks from depth and the safeties rotating late? Like I have said all week, this is a heavyweight scheme matchup against two of the best play designers in the country on both sides of the football.

Kentucky has to play clean offensively and the big blue wall has to play their best to move the football on this defense. Oklahoma makes everything difficult for an offense, and I truly think this game comes down to which side has the better gameplan. Although its offense versus defenses, both teams excel at creative looks that catch the other side of the football at the right time. I trust Will Stein and Joe Sloan to figure out how to scheme up looks against this defense.

Texas found some explosives last week against the Sooners, and they even had more opportunities but could not capitalize. Kentucky has generated 53 explosive plays this season, and they rank 7th in the SEC in explosive play rate. Kentucky ranks 4th in the SEC in success rate and explosive play rate combined, which is something that could help them win this football game. I think the Sooners still struggle offensively, and the Wildcats find enough points to leave Norman with a win.

Prediction: Kentucky 24, Oklahoma 17

This article originally appeared on UK Wildcats Wire: Kentucky at Oklahoma: Final thoughts and prediction