Inside Germany’s roughly $14 billion plan to deter Russia with a new arsenal of deep-strike missiles

BERLIN — The German government expects it will need almost €12 billion — roughly $14 billion — to build a new arsenal of long-range weapons aimed at deterring Russia, according to defense ministry documents seen by POLITICO.

The weapons would give German forces the ability to hit military targets hundreds or even thousands of kilometers behind the front — including command centers, airfields, missile launchers, and supply hubs.

Internal documents call the effort a top priority for both Germany and NATO.

They say the goal is to allow German forces to strike “far into the rear area of an adversary” and maintain the ability to respond with conventional weapons “below the nuclear threshold.” The plan has four parts, with the first weapons due as early as next year and the most advanced systems planned for the middle of the next decade.

Internal ministry talking points say “almost €12 billion” in budget funds are expected to be needed for the buildup.

The money has not yet been approved.

Another ministry document says the costs have been estimated and submitted as part of the government’s budget planning process.

Germany’s defense ministry declined to comment on the figure or individual programs. “The measures you refer to are generally subject to the approval of the German Bundestag,” a ministry spokesperson told POLITICO.

The ministry could only comment after parliament had considered them, the spokesperson added.

The fastest part of the plan is a new low-cost cruise missile that Germany wants to start fielding in 2027.

POLITICO reported in June that the defense ministry was looking at missiles from US-Israeli startup Covenant Industries and Ukrainian-linked companies as it searched for weapons that could be bought in large numbers and put into service quickly.

The new documents show that effort has moved further.

Germany is in contract talks with two suppliers, with the aim of receiving missiles for qualification by the end of this year.

The documents name three candidates: Covenant’s Anthem, the BARS missile offered by an unnamed Ukrainian company, and Flamingo from Ukrainian company Fire Point.

Germany is already preparing framework contracts for later mass production.

The documents describe the low-cost missile as a “cost-efficient and, above all, mass-producible” weapon that can be used alongside much more expensive missiles.

That follows a lesson Berlin says it has drawn from the war in Ukraine.

When POLITICO first reported on the low-cost missile program in June, the defense ministry said strikes against important targets far behind enemy lines had become “indispensable for credible deterrence.” “Cost-effective systems can overwhelm enemy air defenses through mass attacks and are therefore of high operational value,” the ministry said at the time.

The next part of the plan is American.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz told the Bundestag in early July that Germany had reached an agreement with the US government during the NATO summit in Ankara to acquire American Tomahawk cruise missiles and station them in Germany. “We are closing an important strategic gap in our defense,” Merz said, adding that Germany would develop its own European systems at the same time.

Germany’s internal target, according to the documents, is to have an initial Typhon and Tomahawk capability by the end of the decade.

The purchase would give Berlin a proven long-range weapon while European alternatives are still being developed.

The final two parts of the plan are being developed with Britain.

Germany and the UK are working on a new high-end cruise missile and a hypersonic glide weapon, part of last year’s Trinity House Agreement, with the documents showing a targeted initial capability by the middle of the next decade.

The two governments have already said publicly that their new long-range weapons should be able to reach targets more than 2,000 kilometers away.

The hypersonic project accounts for most of the money in Germany’s current estimate.

One internal document puts nearly €9 billion toward development and procurement of the hypersonic weapon, plus €182 million for keeping it in service.

It lists another €1.8 billion for cruise missile development and procurement and €97 million for maintenance.

Those figures add up to just around €11 billion.

Separate ministry talking points put the overall expected required funding at “almost €12 billion.” For Germany, the missile plan marks a major change.

Instead of waiting for one new European missile, Berlin wants several types of weapons: cheaper missiles that can be produced in large numbers, American Tomahawks available sooner, and more advanced European weapons later.

The buildup is taking place as German military leaders warn that Russia could be able to attack NATO territory by the end of the decade.

Berlin wants to make sure that if deterrence fails, Russian forces would not be safe simply because they are far behind the front.

Chris Lunday is a defense reporter in Germany at Politico Europe.

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