If Kincaid breaks out, Bills offense could reach another level

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If Kincaid breaks out, Bills offense could reach another level

ORCHARD PARK – When the time came to make a decision on whether to offer tight end Dalton Kincaid the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, Buffalo Bills president/general manager Brandon Beane didn’t even have to think twice.

“Yes, I’m turning the fifth-year option in,” Beane said in late March at the NFL owners’ meetings, announcing his decision weeks before he exercised the maneuver.

It was a show of faith in Kincaid, a player Beane picked in the first round of the 2023 draft after trading up two spots to ensure that he would get him, but also a player who has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons, mostly due to a knee injury suffered midway through 2024.

<https:%2F%2Fmedia.zenfs If Kincaid breaks out, Bills offense could reach another level

When Beane picked Kincaid, he believed he was going to be the type of tight end the Bills have never had – someone who could get down the field and make game-altering plays the way Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, George Kittle and Mark Andrews did in their peak years, and younger players like Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft are doing now.

Kincaid has flashed the potential to be included in that group, but missing nine games the past two years and being far below 100% in so many others has prevented Kincaid from joining the club.

Now it’s on the 26-year-old to deliver on the promise he showed as a rookie when he set a Bills record for most catches by a tight end with 73, albeit for just 673 yards and two TDs.

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“It’s probably the best I’ve felt in my career at this point in the year,” Kincaid said recently following an OTA session. “Not having those thoughts of the knee – especially last year – I feel really good not even thinking about it out there.”

If he truly is past his injury woes, it will be interesting to see what that looks like as Joe Brady’s offense continues to evolve with new pieces added to the mix.

Josh Allen now has a No. 1-type wide receiver in DJ Moore, something that was lacking since Stefon Diggs left the building. One can assume that Moore is going to be a high-snap, high-target player.

Khalil Shakir will remain a trusted target for Allen, and Joshua Palmer – who had his own injury issues in 2025 – is back and could still become the player the Bills envisioned when they signed him as a free agent last year. Then you have the enigma that is Keon Coleman and the potential of rookie fourth-round pick Skyler Bell, plus the other two tight ends, Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes, who will vie for snaps as well.

That’s a lot of cooks in the kitchen, so it’s fair to wonder how much of an impact can Kincaid have, and will he ever be able to live up not only to his draft status but now the fifth-year option that guarantees him $8.1 million in 2027, nearly doubling his 2026 salary.

“He looks really fresh, he’s moving really well,” Allen said. “He’s such an integral part of our offense. We know that, I think everybody knows that. And when he’s on the field, we’re a better team. So it’s been great to have him back, moving at full health, and just excited to continue to progress with him as well.”

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Beane came armed with numbers during a sitdown interview early in the offseason when the discussion surrounding the fifth-year option began.

“Our record with him (in 2025) was 9-2, and that counts the Miami game we lost that he didn’t finish,” Beane said. “Our record when he did not play was 2-3. Average points, 30.1 when he started and played, average points when he didn’t, 23, so a full touchdown more (when he played).”

True, the Bills’ offense was markedly more effective when Kincaid played and that was evidenced by the fact that 27 of his 39 catches resulted in first downs, and his average yards per reception of 14.6 dwarfed 2023 (9.2) and 2024 (10.2). However, he needs to play more than 38% of the offensive snaps.

“We had to manage him,” Beane said of their strategy of limiting his usage in the regular season hoping that he could play more in the postseason. To a degree that worked as he played 28 snaps in the wild-card victory over Jacksonville and 38 in the divisional round loss to Denver, his fourth- and second-highest totals of the year. The result was nine catches for 111 yards and two TDs.

In his role as Brady’s right-hand man, Pete Carmichael has spent the first four months of his employment as offensive coordinator learning all he can about the players on that side of the roster. Before the offseason program began in April, it was strictly via film study; now it’s hands on in meetings and the practice field, and Kincaid has opened his eyes.

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“He’s obviously a big part of this offense and when he’s on the field we’re looking for ways to get the ball in his hands,” Carmichael said. “He obviously brings a lot of value to this team, and I think he’s a guy that, when we have the opportunity, make sure that he’s a big part of what we’re doing. I’m excited about the player, he’s moving around great out there.”

No one has been more frustrated about the last two seasons than Kincaid, which is why he’s on a mission to get right, stay healthy and make a leap forward.

“Setting a foundation for strength in the lower body was a big emphasis early on,” he said. “I just got a lot stronger, and then from there implemented movement and everything. It’s more just playing it by ear. Seeing how things go from now to training camp, and then into the preseason and season. But right now, I feel really good. It’s all in a good spot. Them pouring confidence into me only will make me a better player.”

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for more than four decades including 37 years as the full-time beat writer/columnist for the D&C. He has written numerous books about the history of the team, and he is also co-host of the BLEAV in Bills podcast/YouTube show. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on X @salmaiorana and on Bluesky @salmaiorana.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills expect big year from Dalton Kincaid

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