How NBA Expansion Could Help Solve The League's Big Three Problem

The NBA is moving closer to adding expansion teams in Las Vegas. Commissioner Adam Silver told reporters Tuesday that the league hopes to decide on that by the end of this calendar year.

While some have questioned whether adding two new teams could lead to leaguewide talent dilution, expansion could also help solve a problem created by the NBA’s latest collective bargaining agreement.

With the introduction of the second apron—and the draconian roster-building restrictions for teams that cross it—the NBA made it far more difficult for teams to build around three players on max or near-max contracts. That hasn’t stopped teams from trying anyway, although it’s largely blown up in the faces of those that have.

Adding two new teams wouldn’t entirely solve that problem, but it could eventually help spread more top-tier talent throughout the league rather than concentrate it on fewer teams.

If the NBA does decide to add expansion teams in Seattle and Las Vegas, it’s aiming to have them begin play in the 2028-29 season, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. The first step would be holding an expansion draft in the 2028 offseason.

In the last expansion draft for the then-Charlotte Bobcats in 2004, teams were allowed to protect up to eight players from being selected, but each team had to leave at least one player unprotected. Teams also couldn’t protect players who were set to become unrestricted free agents.

The expansion teams would have zero shot of landing superstars like Victor Wembanyama, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Luka Dončić in the expansion draft, but they might be able to acquire highly paid players who have fallen out of favor with their current teams. Otherwise, they’ll have to go mining for young players, veterans on minimum or near-minimum contracts and/or diamonds in the rough.

The deck will be stacked against the expansion teams for their first few years of existence, as they’ll have a different salary cap than the rest of the league. Their salary cap will be equal to 66⅔% of the NBA’s actual salary cap in their first year and 80% of the NBA’s salary cap in their second year before going to the normal cap in their third year.

Those restrictions in their first two years would make it difficult for them to fit more than one max contract into their reduced salary cap. But once they have the same amount of cap space as the rest of the league, they’ll be able to put their spending power to good use.

Judging by the number of players who had their two-way contracts converted to standard deals this past season alone (32), there’s enough NBA-caliber talent floating around on the fringes of the league to justify adding two new teams. However, as Howard Beck of The Ringer noted in February 2025, there’s a major difference between a team filled with replacement-level talent and those with one or more superstars.

The expansion teams would need to find their own versions of Wembanyama, Gilgeous-Alexander or Dončić before they became legitimate championship threats. The draft will likely be their best chance of doing so, although the league’s recent overhaul of the draft lottery could throw a wrench in that. That might force them to explore the trade and free-agent markets to find that caliber of player instead.

As more teams come to terms with the difficulty of building around Big Threes, though, fewer may be willing to take that plunge to begin with. Adding two new teams would give those players additional landing spots—and perhaps drive up their price.

The tentative timeline of the expansion teams—provided they get approved this year—could work in their favor. The league’s current CBA runs through the 2029-30 season, although either the owners or the players can opt out after the 2028-29 campaign.

If expansion teams begin play in 2028-29, they might have only one year under the current system before the owners and players go back to the negotiating table. At that point, all bets are off on what changes both sides might pursue.

The league typically begins each negotiating cycle by batting around a hard salary cap, which the players emphatically reject. The second apron technically isn’t a hard cap since teams can exceed it, although the restrictions they face upon going over that line effectively makes it one.

It’s clear that the players’ union is already gearing up for a battle over the second apron in the next round of CBA negotiations. If nothing else, the league’s 65-game minimum for certain end-of-season awards seems likely to change in some capacity. But if the second-apron penalties remain in place, teams will have a tough time keeping three max contracts on their books for more than a few years at a time.

Stars will always want to team up with other stars to give themselves a better shot of winning a championship, although they too might be realizing the challenges with the current system. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll flock to the expansion teams, but having two additional teams with millions to spend should benefit players.

Given the limited number of stars and superstars in the NBA, top-tier talent distribution is a supply-and-demand problem. There already aren’t enough superstars to go around with 30 teams, much less 32. At the moment, it’s unclear whether teams like the Sacramento Kings, Brooklyn Nets or Milwaukee Bucks have a single franchise cornerstone worth building around.

However, the second apron already caused teams like the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns to blow apart their expensive rosters, which led to more talent disbursement around the league. They won’t be the last ones to fall victim to that, either. The Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic might not be far behind in that regard.

Since the current system makes it prohibitively difficult to build around Big Threes, adding two expansion teams could go a long way toward further spreading out talent around the league. It might take at least a few years before the expansion teams get their franchise cornerstone, particularly given the draft-lottery overhaul, but the second apron could help them eventually load up on talent since they’ll be starting with a blank slate salary-wise.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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This article was originally published on Forbes.com