Fantasy Football Week 3 Quarterback Projections and Rankings: Tyler Shough Rises, Justin Herbert Slacks

The goal this week is to find a quarterback that can win us the week. A nugget found in the river. A diamond in the rough? That may be extreme, but a league-winner we can start. Whether he is on our bench fueling a start ’em, sit ’em debate, or on waivers, he can be discovered. Our projections are what might forecast that.

Top-12 Quarterbacks

We no longer have to acknowledge the inevitable. Josh Allen is the QB1, and rather, we should focus on the QB2. This week it will be Joe Burrow. The Bengals have the highest expected pass rate in the NFL. I believe that volume will surpass Burrow’s matchup against the Steelers’ top-5 defense.

Another high-pass-rate team is the Dallas Cowboys, projected at 60.5%. They are also rated as the 3rd-best offense in the NFL, upranked from the previous week. Thus, Dak Prescott enters must-start territory.

Other must-starts on this list include Brock Purdy and Tyler Shough. Purdy is the early NFL MVP favorite, and Shough leads the NFL in passing yards (662).

High-Upside Plays

Among my Week 3 must-starts is Trevor Lawrence. I hail him as “matchup-proof,” given a QB4 final ranking in 2025 and a top-3 status in NFL Week 1. These projections do not factor in high variance; risk versus reward. Lawrence would be a better play than Matthew Stafford, who is QB12, with more uncertainty around Puka Nacua’s health.

Jared Goff’s home splits are renowned. He is about twice as good at home in terms of the TD:INT rate. Be wary of starting a non-rushing quarterback, but also know that Goff’s upside is huge against the Jets with three more days of rest at home.

I will not suggest a must-bench for Bryce Young. However, the Panthers are due for a normalization of their offense, which is averaging an outlier 35.5 points per game.

Fade These Quarterbacks

Stafford is a must-bench in Week 3. The risk features uncertainty around Puka Nacua’s hip, a trip to play in Denver, and zero rushing upside.

Daniel Jones versus Houston might put Shane Steichen back in the hot seat. Not only is that a brutal matchup, but sending Indianapolis to 0-3 can force Carlie Irsay-Gordon to be stern in her analysis. Laying 30 points on Kansas City does not matter when it results in a loss.

Justin Herbert is not yet someone to cut. In fact, a normalization is to be expected soon. Traveling to Buffalo will by no means be easy: 2,500 miles and three time zones to a crowded Highmark Stadium.

Sleeper of the Week

Drew Lock has 5 Big Time Throws to just 1 Turnover Worthy Play this season pic.twitter.com/xSnCO9Ic2R

– PFF (@PFF) September 21, 2026

Drew Lock enjoyed a beautiful Sunday and Week 2 football. He finished the week as QB9 and delivered a 31-7 victory over the Arizona Cardinals. It was more impressive than his Week 2 victory as a substitute and more impressive than Sam Darnold’s Week 1 output.

The Commanders are probably the worst defense in the NFL. I rank them that way, and they are one of six current teams that have allowed more than 60 points.

Week 3 Projected Leaders

• Passing Yards: Joe Burrow (266.1)
• Passing Touchdowns: Joe Burrow (1.8)
• Interceptions: Deshaun Watson (1.0)
• Rushing Yards: Jalen Hurts (19.5)
• Rushing Touchdowns: Allen, Hurts, Maye (0.4)

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This article was originally published on www.si.com/onsi/fantasy as Fantasy Football Week 3 Quarterback Projections and Rankings: Tyler Shough Rises, Justin Herbert Slacks.