The New England Patriots have an opportunity to make a statement Sunday afternoon when they host the Green Bay Packers at Gillette Stadium in one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 9.
Both teams enter the game at 5-3, having won four of their last five contests. The Patriots are coming off a 24-19 victory over the Miami Dolphins, while the Packers defeated the Carolina Panthers 27-19.
For Mike Vrabel’s Patriots, this represents another opportunity to demonstrate that their resurgence is more than a favorable stretch of scheduling. Green Bay brings a dangerous passing attack led by Jordan Love and a defense capable of creating turnovers and disrupting opposing quarterbacks.
New England has its own difference-maker in Drake Maye, but the third-year quarterback will be operating without two important offensive weapons. Wide receiver A.J. Brown has been ruled out with ankle and knee injuries, while running back TreVeyon Henderson will miss the game because of an illness.
With both teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning, the outcome could hinge on a handful of critical matchups.
Here are five keys to a Patriots victory over Green Bay.
1. Protect Drake Maye and Let Him Attack Downfield
Maye has demonstrated that he can make the throws necessary to beat quality NFL defenses. The challenge Sunday will be giving him enough time to find opportunities against a Green Bay unit that has been among the league’s best.
The Packers enter the game ranked fifth in defensive expected points added per play, according to SumerSports, and their defense has produced 15 takeaways, second-most in the NFL.
There is some encouraging news for New England. Star Green Bay pass rusher Micah Parsons has been ruled out with a knee injury, removing one of the league’s most disruptive defensive players from the matchup.
That doesn’t mean Maye will have an easy afternoon.
Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon can still create pressure through scheme and disguise. The Patriots must identify pressure before the snap, avoid negative plays and give Maye opportunities to challenge the secondary.
With Brown unavailable, New England cannot depend on one receiver consistently winning difficult individual matchups. The passing game will need contributions throughout the receiving corps.
If the offensive line gives Maye time, the Patriots have a chance to create explosive plays against a defense that thrives on forcing mistakes.
2. Don’t let Jordan Love Punish the Blitz
One of New England’s most important defensive decisions will involve how aggressively to pressure Love.
The Patriots have blitzed on 37.8% of opposing dropbacks this season, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, according to NBC Sports Boston.
Ordinarily, that aggressiveness can disrupt an offense’s timing. Against Love, however, it carries considerable risk.
The Packers quarterback leads the league with 824 passing yards against the blitz, making him particularly dangerous when defenses commit additional rushers.
That creates an interesting tactical challenge for Vrabel and the Patriots’ defensive staff.
New England cannot allow Love to stand comfortably in the pocket, but repeatedly sending extra defenders could leave the secondary exposed to quick throws, screens and explosive gains.
The solution may be selective pressure rather than constant pressure.
The Patriots need to disguise their intentions, generate a pass rush with four defenders whenever possible and force Love to hold the football.
Christian Barmore’s presence along the defensive front could be especially important, both in collapsing the pocket and disrupting Green Bay’s offensive rhythm.
Making Love work through his progressions, rather than giving him obvious blitz opportunities to exploit, could determine whether New England can contain the Packers’ passing attack.
3. Win the Turnover Battle
Few statistics better illustrate the challenge facing New England than the turnover numbers.
Green Bay has forced 15 turnovers through eight games, while the Patriots have committed 15 giveaways.
That is a dangerous combination for a team facing an opponent capable of capitalizing on short fields.
The encouraging development for New England is Maye’s improvement in protecting the football.
After committing seven turnovers in his first three games, Maye has turned it over just three times in his last five appearances.
That progress must continue Sunday.
The Patriots cannot afford unnecessary risks against a defense that has consistently created extra possessions. Maye needs to recognize disguised coverage, protect the ball when pressured and understand when throwing it away is the correct decision.
New England’s defense also needs to create opportunities of its own.
Love’s willingness to attack downfield gives the Patriots chances to challenge receivers at the catch point and potentially generate interceptions.
In a matchup between two evenly matched teams, one turnover could be the difference between winning and losing.
4. Establish the Running Game Despite Henderson’s Absence
With Henderson unavailable and Brown sidelined, the Patriots cannot allow their offense to become entirely dependent on Maye making difficult throws.
A productive rushing attack would help New England control possession, limit Green Bay’s pass-rush opportunities and create more manageable third downs.
The Packers will be missing linebacker Zaire Franklin, while their offensive opponent also has a chance to benefit from the absence of Parsons.
New England should test Green Bay’s defensive front early, even if the initial results are modest.
The objective isn’t necessarily to dominate on the ground. It’s to make the Packers respect the possibility of a run, particularly on early downs.
That would create opportunities for play-action passes and prevent Green Bay from consistently attacking Maye in obvious passing situations.
The Patriots must also avoid abandoning the run if the Packers build an early lead.
A balanced offensive approach would help compensate for their missing playmakers and keep the game from becoming a contest decided entirely by which quarterback can make the most spectacular throws.
5. Make Green Bay One-Dimensional and Finish Drives
The Packers have relied heavily on Love this season, throwing the football on 66.1% of their offensive plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Their rushing attack has been far less productive.
Green Bay enters Sunday’s matchup averaging just 60.6 rushing yards per game, the lowest figure in the league. Even with Josh Jacobs in the backfield, the Packers have struggled to establish consistent production on the ground.
That gives New England a clear defensive objective.
The Patriots must control the line of scrimmage, limit Jacobs on early downs and force Green Bay into predictable passing situations.
Doing so would allow New England to concentrate more resources on coverage and create opportunities for its defensive front to pressure Love without blitzing excessively.
But defensive success alone won’t be enough.
The Patriots must turn productive offensive possessions into touchdowns rather than settling for field goals. With both quarterbacks capable of generating explosive plays, red-zone efficiency could become decisive.
That is especially important if windy conditions at Gillette Stadium make longer field-goal attempts more difficult.
New England needs to capitalize when it gets inside the 20-yard line and avoid allowing Green Bay to stay within striking distance.
The Bottom Line: Patriots Have a Real Opportunity
The Patriots and Packers enter Sunday with identical records and legitimate reasons to believe they can make a playoff run.
Green Bay’s passing attack and opportunistic defense present serious challenges, but New England has advantages it can exploit.
Parsons’ absence should help Maye, while the Packers’ struggling rushing attack gives the Patriots an opportunity to dictate how Green Bay moves the football.
Ultimately, the game could come down to which young quarterback receives the most support.
If New England protects Maye, limits turnovers, stays disciplined against Love and finishes drives, the Patriots have every reason to believe they can emerge with an important home victory.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Packers 21.
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