Early Week 2 NFL bets to make right now: 3 totals that I like

The biggest takeaway for me after Week 1 in the NFL was the record high scoring.

There were a combined 791 total points scored, the most for Week 1 since the NFL-AFL merger in 1966. I don’t think that is a random occurrence. To me, the biggest reaons for the scoring outburst are the depth leaguewide at the QB position, a slew of innovative playcallers and advanced analytics departments driving their teams towards plays that are higher in success rate and expected points added.

Overs went 9-6-1 in betting totals against closing lines, and I think that trend continues both in market this week and against results next week. The totals market is the place to head, as it’s where I’m looking early in this NFL Week 2.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, 41)

There’s been a lot of negative chatter about both of these starting quarterbacks — Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield — after their respective Week 1 performances. From a strictly football perspective, I see things a little differently.

There were some metrics that point to explosive play making still being generated. Watson completed 16-of-22 pass attempts, and he also threw the ball downfield, averaging 9.3 yards per attempt (fifth-highest Week 1 mark). Finally, despite often being in passing situations, Watson showed he can still evade pressure and turn potential terrible plays into success with his speed. He had 38 rush yards on six attempts, a team high in yards per carry. Browns head coach Todd Monken said he saw some great things on film, and there is some statistical evidence to support that.

On the other side, Mayfield was haunted by three lost fumbles. Those are largely correctable and a bit flukey. Mayfield was 23-for-28 passing the ball, an 82% completion rate that was best in the NFL. Despite not having any passing touchdowns, he had a 99.8 passer rating, which is very solid. One of his turnovers came right near the end zone, which removed more points off the board.

This market has already moved from 40.5 at open to 41.5 mostly showing up. With 41 being a key number for NFL totals, that is a significant and valuable line move. With the ability to still play over 41 at BetMGM, this was an easy choice for my first play of the week.

Bet: Browns-Bucs over 41

Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 45) at New York Jets

The public’s opinion of these two teams after Week 1 is in stark contrast. The Packers are now losers of six straight games dating back to last season and let a two-score lead slip away against the Carson Wentz-led Vikings. The Jets are 1-0 with an upset win over the Tennessee Titans. But both offenses showed signs of success and this creates another over opportunity for me.

The Packers don’t have much of a running game without Josh Jacobs, and that led to 387 passing yards from Jordan Love. Green Bay can create explosive downfield plays are was fifth in total yards, fifth in yards per play and second in total passing yards in Week 1. I expect that to continue under offensive head coach Matt LaFleur. The Jets were also above league average in total yards (13th), and were top five in passing yards per attempt with Geno Smith at QB. Despite the opposite win/loss results, both offenses were clicking.

This is another game where the early-week market has backed the over. The opening total was at 43.5, has moved through the key number of 44 and onto the 45. Because the line moved through a key number, this is a smaller play but still a definite early-week bet for me. I don’t think we see a 44 reappear in market.

Bet: Packers-NY Jets over 45

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-7, 48.5)

The lone under for this week is a travel battle between the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams have to travel back from Australia after a loss to the 49ers. The New York Giants have a West Coast trip after a Sunday Night Football win over the Dallas Cowboys.

On the Rams’ side, I do think we get an announcement that Aaron Donald is going to play this week, and that news will shift the total down slightly. On the other side, the Giants showed their hand with with fullback Patrick Ricard playing on 54% of snaps. New York only allowed Dallas to touch the ball twice in the second half because of the way they controlled the clock. Fewer possessions is a key signal for unders.

Bet under the total in NY Giants-Rams at sportsbooks right now

This bet is a little game script independent, as both of these teams become run heavy while holding the lead. Regardless of who is winning, I expect the game to slow down as it progresses.

The early market signals also agree here. The consensus open was 48.5, and most of them have been bet down to 48 with some 47.5’s showing up. With BetMGM still posting a 48.5 (-110) to the under, that is a bet worth taking despite generally looking for overs to continue league wide.

Bet: NY Giants-Rams under 48.5