Can the Indiana Pacers be contenders again? X-factors, bold predictions with Haliburton's return

INDIANAPOLIS — The Indiana Pacers are ready to put the 2025-26 season behind them. It was a season filled with too many injuries to count, with a bleak 19-63 record.

But the Pacers are healthy again. Tyrese Haliburton is back, Ivica Zubac is healthy again, and the entire starting five has finally had time to gel throughout training camp practices.

Whether they can stay healthy, however, could define their season once again.

Here are two X-factors for the Pacers’ 2026-27 season, plus one bold prediction:

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Indiana Pacers in 2026-27

A lot of what defined the Pacers’ dismal 2025-26 season was injuries — every starter missed a significant number of games.

Haliburton was already out for the year as he was rehabbing his Achilles injury suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Aaron Nesmith suffered an MCL sprain in his left knee near the beginning of the season and ended up missing two and a half months from November to January. He then suffered a sprained ankle and back strain, forcing him to miss more games. He ended up playing just 45 games in 2025-26.

Pascal Siakam missed 19 games because of various injuries, including his knee, ankle and back. Andrew Nembhard missed 25 games throughout the season because of a left shoulder strain along with back and neck issues.

Ivica Zubac, who came to the Pacers in a midseason trade in February, ended up playing just five games for Indiana following the trade because of an ankle injury that followed him from Los Angeles, then a fractured rib following his ankle recovery.

Off the bench, Obi Toppin missed four months after suffering a stress fracture in his foot in the Pacers’ third game of the season. Ben Sheppard missed 17 games with a calf strain. Johnny Furphy tore his ACL in February; his recovery will stretch into the 2026-27 season.

This season, the Pacers hope that the injury bug will not follow them. Haliburton is fully recovered from his Achilles tendon tear (and has already returned after a one-game preseason absence because of a mild ankle tweak), and Siakam and Zubac have participated normally in the preseason. Nesmith missed the final two preseason games because of a hamstring injury, but said he was feeling “pretty good,” and Nembhard missed one preseason game because of an undisclosed injury. Toppin and Sheppard have participated normally in the preseason, as well.

As of now, the player only determined to be in doubt for the season opener is backup point guard T.J. McConnell, who hasn’t played in any preseason game this year because of an undisclosed injury.

If the Pacers can largely avoid the major injury bug, they can almost exactly run it back like they did to the NBA Finals in 2025.

HOW WILL KELLY OUBRE FIT INTO THE ROTATION?

When the Pacers traded Bennedict Mathurin to the Los Angeles Clippers in a package for Ivica Zubac in February, they went the rest of the 2025-26 season without a bonafide, versatile sixth-man-type player coming off their bench.

That’s what they hope Kelly Oubre Jr., who signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Pacers this offseason, can provide for them going forward.

Oubre signed with the Pacers in part because he loves the kind of pace that they play with, especially as he has been playing with a slower-paced 76ers team for the past three years. But it takes an adjustment period for players to come into Rick Carlisle’s system.

Oubre has been doing well so far, Carlisle said, but there’s still adjustments to be made. And the Pacers hope he can be the moldable versatile player they signed him to be — especially if injuries come into play again this season.

They will make the Eastern Conference Finals.

The preseason expectations for the Indiana Pacers have been all over the place. They went to Game 7 of the Finals two years ago, then followed that up with a 19-63 season. Case in point: The Athletic predicted the Pacers to finish 10th in the Eastern Conference with a losing record,

But they were missing one critical piece of their lineup: Haliburton. Now that Haliburton is back, and the Pacers have recovered from their injury problems, they could run the league once again.

The starting five is nearly the same from the 2025 — put Zubac in place of Myles Turner, which can even be considered an upgrade. Their main rotation is similar, with Toppin, Sheppard and Jarace Walker running it back and Oubre taking Mathurin’s spot as the sixth man.

Sure, teams around the Eastern Conference have made serious upgrades: the 76ers signed LeBron James, the Miami Heat traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kawhi Leonard is back with the Toronto Raptors.

But the Pacers shouldn’t be defined by the 2025-26 season; there were too many injuries to make a clear read. If this Pacers team stays healthy, there’s no reason they couldn’t make it deep into the postseason again.

Dustin Dopirak covers the Pacers all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Pacers Insider newsletter.