The 2026 WNBA season is at the midway point of the league’s 44-game regular season — and, as is often the case, the championship odds don’t mirror the standings one-for-one.
What can the gaps between the two tell us?
Let’s start with the one commonality: The Minnesota Lynx carried the best record into the All-Star break at 22-6 thanks to the superstar emergence of rookie Olivia Miles. Not only have they been hot to this point, but they also returned perennial MVP candidate Napheesa Collier, who had missed most of the first half while recovering from offseason surgery on both of her ankles.
Only a year removed from their third championship in four seasons, the Aces are led by A’ja Wilson, who is heavily favored to win a record-setting fifth WNBA MVP award with -360 odds at FanDuel. The Liberty also have a multi-time league MVP leading the way in Breanna Stewart, who is averaging 21.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.
Ultimately, Las Vegas is only one win behind Golden State (+800). And while New York is only 15-12 in the middle of the league standings, the Liberty have more experience than the Valkyries, who are only in their second season as an expansion franchise.
There’s a clear drop-off after those top four, whose odds give each of them at least a 10 percent implied probability of winning the title.
The Atlanta Dream (+1500) and Indiana Fever (+1800) have odds that give them at least a 5 percent chance. And the Dallas Wings (+2200) sit just south of that, with Paige Bueckers in the No. 2 position on the MVP oddsboard at +850 thanks to a dramatic turnaround from their 10-win campaign in 2025.
There’s another drop-off from there, with the final eight teams sporting odds that give them less than a 1 percent implied probability to win.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Golden State Valkyries, WNBA, Sports Betting
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