11 can't-miss games that will shape the College Football Playoff race

Some games you just can’t miss.

OK, so every pairing in the Bowl Subdivision looks intriguing now, after the months and months of waiting since Indiana topped Miami for the 2025 national championship. (Yes, even the barnburner between Rutgers and Boston College on Sept. 11.)

But a deeper glance at the Power Four reveals the matchups that will determine which teams play for conference championships, which end the year with credentials for the College Football Playoff and which will enter the postseason as the favorites for the national title.

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This list includes three games featuring No. 1 Ohio State, which will take on another three teams in the top six of the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll in No. 2 Oregon, No. 4 Texas and No. 6 Indiana.

USA TODAY Sports breaks down the 2026 regular-season games that will decide the playoff, beginning with three can’t-miss nonconference matchups:

There is a chance for a reputation-changing win for Clemson, though the Tigers’ most obvious path to the playoff remains via an ACC championship. In terms of the postseason, there’s more on the line for LSU, which cannot afford to drop a nonconference game and still factor into an at-large berth given the new nine-game schedule in the SEC. Look for LSU to get better as Kiffin’s debut wears on, making this a potential upset opportunity for Clemson to open the regular season.

It’s the game of the year across all conferences. There are Heisman Trophy odds at stake between Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and Texas quarterback Arch Manning. There’s a statement to be gleaned about the heavyweight competition between the Big Ten and SEC. And while both teams are expected to make the playoff, a loss could mean the difference for an at-large spot, as the Longhorns found out last season.

Last year’s 24-13 win at home against Michigan was a big factor in lifting OU into the playoff. To do the same in Ann Arbor, the Sooners will need to be ready for the new looks installed by former Utah coach Kyle Whittingham and his staff. The OU defense is capable of clamping down on the Wolverines, but the game — and the Sooners’ season — should come down to how well the running game has improved after a poor 2025 season.

This one comes one week after another early-season Big 12 matchup with playoff implications between Arizona and No. 15 Brigham Young. Because of these two pairings, it’s possible the conference race takes solid shape before the end of the regular season’s first month. An upset on the road would give Houston the inside track for the championship game and might force the Red Raiders to run the table from there to earn a repeat playoff berth.

, Sept. 19

Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford in the most anticipated conference game of the season. For LSU, this is the second of three make-or-break games in September, sandwiched between the opener against Clemson and a home game the following Saturday against No. 8 Texas A&M. Taking two of three would buoy the Tigers’ playoff chances heading into an easy middle stretch of McNeese State, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn.

at No. 11 Alabama, Oct. 10

Georgia snapped a three-game losing streak in the series by dominating Alabama in last year’s SEC championship. Still, the Bulldogs have dropped 10 of 12 against the Tide since 2008 and won just twice in Tuscaloosa since the rivalry shifted to home venues in the early 1960s. For the Tide, this is the first of four SEC games in a row against teams in the preseason Coaches Poll — No. 18 Tennessee, A&M and LSU come next.

Penn State has the schedule to make the playoff as an at-large team in Matt Campbell’s debut. Should all the former Iowa State pieces fall into place, the Nittany Lions‘ chances will be defined by a two-game stretch against the Trojans and, one week later, at Michigan. But the easier schedule comes at a cost: PSU has to win these games to overcome some skepticism over just how talented this team is compared to the best of the best in the Big Ten and SEC.

Indiana’s ability to repeat hinges on a pair of two-game Big Ten sets: Ohio State and Michigan (road) in October and USC and No. 19 Washington (road) in November. Recent playoff history suggests IU would earn at-large spot by splitting these four games and sweeping through the rest of an uneventful schedule. But getting back to the Big Ten championship game should require a win against OSU, though the Buckeyes won’t be able to rest easy given November matchups against Oregon and the Wolverines.

Last year’s loss to the Hurricanes cost Notre Dame a playoff berth. The lesson: Every game matters, but some more than others. To avoid a similar fate in 2026, the Irish must do no worse than take two of three against the Hurricanes, BYU and No. 20 SMU. Beyond the huge impact on where the Irish land in the postseason, the matchup will reveal whether they are built to capture the program’s first national championship since 1988.

If the preseason poll holds true, this would be the second No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in the Big Ten in as many years, joining the Hoosiers’ 13-10 win against Ohio State in the 2025 Big Ten championship. The Ducks should be favored in every game heading into November but will need to buckle up for a final month that features the Buckeyes, Michigan and Washington. As with OSU and Indiana in October, the result in Columbus will go a long way toward determining who plays for the Big Ten crown and which three (or even four) teams from the conference make the 12-team playoff field.

There are plenty of reasons to believe this year’s rivalry will follow the same track as last season’s meeting in Austin. While Texas has earned more preseason praise, both teams are built to contend deep into November and beyond, raising the odds that one or both will be playing for either a spot in the SEC championship or an at-large berth. On an individual level, this regular-season finale could give Arch Manning one final leg up on his competition for the Heisman Trophy.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 11 can’t-miss games that will shape the College Football Playoff race